222
FXUS62 KMHX 161747
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
147 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in across ENC in the wake of last night`s
backdoor cold front. High will gradually anchor over the East
Coast into this weekend ahead of the next cold frontal passage
late this weekend into Monday, which will bring the next chance
of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...Following last night`s cold frontal
passage, pressure gradient remains pinched between high
pressure currently centered across the upper Great Lakes region
and an area of low pressure well offshore of the East Coast.
This has brought a renewed northerly surge of winds today, with
cold air advection limiting high temperatures to the mid-to-
upper 60s across ENC under clear skies. Winds will calm inland
tonight, leading to strong radiational cooling that will allow
temps to drop to the low 40s inland (upper-40s to mid-50s along
the coast). Some sheltered spots may even briefly dip into the
upper 30s tonight. Dry conditions will preclude any threat of
fog development overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...Conditions will be chilly to start the
day on Friday, with temperatures expected to be hovering in
the low-to-mid 40s around 8 AM. A cool and dry airmass will
remain in place, allowing temperatures to climb only to the mid
60s under sunny skies. Breezy northerly winds will continue but
gradually relax through the day as high pressure continues to
build in and gradually becomes centered over the mid-Atlantic.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thu...

Key Messages...

- High pressure moves overhead and then offshore this weekend
  with above normal temps returning.

- Next chance of light rain expected late Sunday night through
  Monday as a cold front moves through

- Mild and dry conditions continue through mid next week

High pressure re-centers over the southern Mid-Atlantic
Saturday allowing heights to build, and conditions will rebound
to near normal. High pressure moves offshore Sunday signaling a
return to above normal conditions with highs approaching 80. The
next chance of rain will come late Sunday night into early
Monday as a quick moving and likely moisture- starved front
moves across the Southeast. Behind this front, mild high
pressure builds in through mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...Sunny skies and VFR conditions across
ENC today will persist through the end of the period as high
pressure builds in and gradually becomes centered over the mid-
Atlantic through Friday night. Pressure gradient remains pinched
between the high building in and low pressure centered offshore,
with gust northerly winds (gusts of 15-20 kts inland, 25-30 kts
OBX) lasting through the day today. Winds become light and
variable tonight with temperatures again crashing under clear
skies. Expect dry conditions to preclude development of any fog
tonight, however. Similar day in store Friday with northerly
winds gradually weakening throughout the day.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 2 PM Thu...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the
week with high pressure over the region. A cold front will bring
scattered showers late Sunday night and into Monday, and there
could be some temporary flying restrictions as a result.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...Steady northerly breeze persists across
area waters with winds 15-25 knots and gusts of 20-30 kts. SCAs
remain in place for all waters save for Pamlico, Pungo, Neuse,
and Bay Rivers. High-res guidance continues to advertise another
northerly surge late this evening before winds begin to relax
late tonight. Expect SCAs to remain in place for sounds, the
Alligator River, and southern coastal waters through late
morning/early afternoon tomorrow.

Seas have come up again with the renewed northerly surge behind
last night`s cold frontal passage, with waves of 6-9 feet across
the coastal waters. South of Lookout, nearshore waters remain
somewhat sheltered from northerly winds, with waves of 3-5 feet.
Periods generally shorten through the day, with 10-11 sec early
becoming 7-8 sec from N to S as wind waves begin to dominate.
Waves begin to subside through the day on Friday, but lingering
6-footers will lead to SCAs persisting into Friday night for
the central and northern coastal waters.


LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 2 PM Thu...

Key Messages

 - Another period of hazardous marine conditions are expected
   Sunday and Monday ahead of a quick moving cold front

Winds continue to weaken Saturday to less than 10 kts, and will
eventually come around to the south late in the day. Winds turn
SW Sunday morning and strengthen to 15-25 kts ahead of a cold
front. Winds peak 20-30 kts Sunday night with strong Small Craft
conditions expected across most marine zones. Winds will turn
to the NW Monday behind the front at 10-20 kts.

Seas subside to 3-5 ft Saturday for all but the very outer
waters southeast of Cape Hatteras where 6 footers may remain.
Increasing seas are possible late Saturday as long period swell
arrives from a distant strong low pressure system over the North
Atlantic. Seas could increase to 5-7 ft for much of the marine
waters, but confidence is low on the exact timing and strength
of this swell. Seas will increase to 6-10 ft Sunday as winds
increase ahead of a cold front, and then subside to 5-8 ft
Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 2 PM Thu...Persistent strong northerly winds will
continue through Friday keeping the potential for minor coastal
flooding in the forecast through at least Thursday.

Minor soundside flooding of up to 1 to 2 ft AGL will be possible
adjacent to the southeastern Pamlico Sound from around Avon
south to Core Sound due to the strong winds. Oceanside concerns
will continue across portions of the Outer Banks, especially
Hatteras Island, around high tide due to the combination of high
water levels, wave run up, and vulnerable dune structures, with
up to 1 to 2 ft AGL of inundation possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ196-204-
     205.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ131.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158-230-
     231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/ZC
MARINE...SGK/ZC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX