659
FXUS62 KMHX 050238
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
938 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold, dry high pressure will remain in control through
today. A cold front will move through Thursday bringing strong
winds, particularly for coastal communities. Arctic high
pressure builds back over the area Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 10 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Increasing winds, and not as cold, tonight
 - Wind Advisory expanded to include the Northern OBX
 - Minor coastal flooding concerns tonight

A notable clipper system will cross the Great Lakes tonight,
with a strong cold front crossing the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. Ahead of the cold front, the gradient will tighten in
between it and high pressure out over the western Atlantic. This
will lead to a steadily increasing southwesterly wind across
ENC through the night. Mixing will probably be limited due to
this being a WAA regime, but it should be noted that an
anomalous 50-60kt LLJ is forecast to overspread the area, so
even shallow mixing should be able to tap far enough into the
lower reaches of the jet, supporting wind gusts of 35-45 mph
by late this evening, especially along the coast. With the
tightening gradient, sustained winds of 25-30+ mph appear likely
for much of the OBX, which is supportive of a sustained wind-
driven advisory. The strongest signal for 30+ mph sustained
winds is along the central and southern OBX, especially from
Bogue Banks north through Hatteras Island. However, recent
guidance also shows a fairly modest signal across the Northern
OBX. With this forecast update, we have expanded the Wind
Advisory to include the Northern OBX, given the latest wind
guidance for that area. Please see the COASTAL FLOOD section
below for additional information on how the wind will impact
coastal flooding concerns along the OBX.

(For the update this evening, most changes revolved around winds
increasing a couple hours earlier (recent obs show winds already
25-30 mph along the coast), and have moved up the Wind Advisory
start time to 11 pm.)

With the increased winds, temperatures won`t get as cold as
last night. It will still be chilly, but not nearly as cold. In
fact, tonight is one of those nights in which temps should
bottom out in the evening, then steadily rise through the night
as winds increase. By sunrise Thursday, many of the coastal
areas should have risen into the 50s, with 40s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Moderate to strong winds expected Thursday (gusts of 35-45
   mph)
 - Coastal flooding concerns linger through the day
 - Elevated fire concerns Thursday

A strong cold front is forecast to swing through ENC during the
day Thursday, reaching the coastal plain between 10am-12pm,
then clearing off the coast between 3-5pm. Moderate to strong
southwesterly winds and increasing WAA will allow temps to rise
well into the 50s for much of ENC, with low 60s possible near
the Crystal Coast. Modest mixing is expected within the WAA
regime ahead of the front, followed by deeper mixing behind the
front as strong CAA ensues. Winds aloft will be strongest within
the WAA regime, then decrease as mixing increases within the
CAA regime. This complicates the wind forecast some, but the
general expectation is for a period of 35-45 mph wind gusts.
Along the coast, the strongest winds are expected ahead of the
front, while inland, the strongest winds are expected as mixing
increases behind the front. Both areas have potential to see
wind gusts exceed what is currently forecast, but 35-45 mph is
the most likely scenario. On the higher end of available
guidance, a few gusts to 50+ mph will be possible along the
coast, and as high as 40-45+ mph inland. The Wind Advisory has
been expanded to include the Northern OBX. There, winds may peak
as the winds become westerly, running down the length of the
Albemarle Sound, where limited friction should support a period
of strong winds near the sound. The Advisory was extended out in
time as well. For now, we left western Carteret County out of
the Advisory as much of that part of the county looks to stay
below Advisory criteria. However, it should be noted that Bogue
Banks will likely see a period of 40-45 mph wind gusts.

The winds will overlap with very dry air moving in behind the
front, which is expected to lead to elevated fire concerns.
Please see the FIRE WEATHER section below for additional
details.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 7 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages:

 - Near record cold temps expected Friday and Saturday

Strong CAA develops Thursday night into Friday as Arctic high
pressure builds into the area bringing the potential for record
low temps both Friday morning and Saturday morning (see CLIMATE
section below for record lows). Lows Friday expected in the low
to mid 20 inland and low to mid 30s along the immediate coast.
Saturday morning will see some of the coldest temps yet this
season with lows in the upper teens/lower 20s inland, and
perhaps mid teens in the coldest locals, to upper 20s to lower
30s along the coast. Highs Friday will be in the low to mid 40s
and a touch warmer Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 40s.

High pressure will migrate offshore Sunday with southerly return
flow bringing a warming trend early next week with highs in the
mid to upper 50s Sunday, mid 60s Monday and potentially to
around around 70 Tuesday as Sly winds increase ahead of the
next cold front. Guidance is showing a better moisture feed with
this system and expect measurable precip across ENC though
guidance remains mixed with precip duration and amounts.
Increased PoPs some but kept in the chance range at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Thursday/...
As of 7 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - LLWS impacts this evening through most of tomorrow morning
 - Gusty winds (30-40kt) Thursday

High pressure continues to shift south of the region this
evening as low pressure, and an associated cold front, approach
the region from the west. Later this evening and into tonight,
an anomalously strong southwesterly low-level jet of 50kt+ will
overspread the eastern Carolinas, leading to widespread LLWS
impacts. The risk of LLWS will steadily increase after 01z/8pm
this evening, and last through most of Thursday morning. As the
LLWS risk decreases, the risk of gusty southwest to west winds
will increase as the cold front approaches on Thursday. During
this time, a period of 30-40kt wind gusts appears likely. Of
note, southwest winds will flip to west then northwest as the
cold front moves through. Along that front, there may be a quick
"thump" of winds with briefly higher gusts.

Through the rest of tomorrow, VFR conditions are expected, with
dry conditions continuing.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 7 PM Wednesday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
long term. Some of the coldest air of the season will be across
the area Friday through Saturday and while the airmass will
likely be too dry to support fog, reduced visibilities due to
steam fog will be possible for terminals near water.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 700 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Hazardous winds (gusts 40-50 kts) and seas develop late this
   evening
 - "Strong" Gale Warnings in effect for all coastal waters and
   most of the inland sounds/rivers

A strong cold front will cross the ENC waters tomorrow,
clearing well offshore by late Thursday afternoon. Ahead of the
front, a rapidly tightening gradient will lead to southwesterly
winds quickly building to 20-30kt this evening. Sustained winds
are then expected to peak in the 25-35kt range around sunrise
Thursday morning. During this time, frequent gusts of 30-45kt
are expected. This supports a large area of gale-force wind
impacts, with the only exception being some of the inland
rivers. With the evening update have expanded the Gale Warning
to the Neuse and Bay Rivers where Gale Force winds are likely
at the mouth. It should also be noted that some of the higher
end wind guidance suggests a few hours of storm- force wind
gusts are within the realm of possibility over the warmer waters
adjacent to the Gulf Stream. A Storm Warning was considered,
but confidence is around 30-50%, and it was decided to stick
with a strongly- worded Gale Warning.

As winds increase, seas will build to 5-10 ft, with a period of
10- 12 ft seas expected for the outer edges of the central
coastal waters. Inland rivers and sounds will be very choppy to
rough.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
As of 5 AM Wednesday...Conditions gradually improve Thursday
night and Friday as high pressure builds across the waters and
latest guidance showing conditions dropping below SCA criteria
around mid day Friday. Descent boating conditions expected over
the weekend with NW winds around 15 kt or less Saturday becoming
SW Sunday as the high migrates offshore and seas around 2-4 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 7 PM Wed...Moderate to strong southwesterly winds will
develop on Thursday, and will overlap with relative humidities
in the 40s. While the "higher" RH should limit fire concerns
initially, the strong winds are noteworthy especially for any
carry over from prescribed burns that occurred today. During the
afternoon, a cold front will move through with a notable
northwesterly wind shift and much drier air, with RHs falling
into the 30s. The combination of strong winds, a wind shift, and
a drying airmass should support elevated fire concerns on
Thursday. In coordination with state and local partners, it was
decided that the risk doesn`t warrant any fire weather products,
but the concerns above are worth planning ahead for.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Coastal Flood Advisory now in effect for portions of the Outer
  Banks tonight into Thursday

Strong SW winds will develop late tonight into Thursday ahead
of a strong cold front. This will likely result in minor water
level rises (1-2 ft agl) for soundside Outer Banks, mainly from
Duck to Buxton, including Roanoke Island. Of note, some of the
higher end guidance suggests water levels of 2-2.5 ft AGL, and
this potential will be monitored closely in case adjustments to
the headlines are needed. Additionally, the strong winds will
lead to lower water levels along the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers,
but at this time, water levels are not forecast to get low
enough to impact boaters, and a Low Water Advisory is not
planned for now.

Ocean overwash is always a concern across northern Ocracoke
Island when strong winds and large seas develop but there is
some uncertainty with this system as winds will be parallel with
the coastline and swell periods will only be around 8 seconds
resulting in breaking waves around 4-6 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low temperatures for 12/06 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern       24/1969  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras  27/1957  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     16/1970  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City  23/1988  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        19/1969  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville   23/2010  (NCA ASOS)

Record Low temperatures for 12/07 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern       20/1954  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras  30/2010  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     19/1984  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City  21/1997  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        19/1937  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville   19/2010  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for NCZ196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ131.
     Gale Warning until 3 PM EST Thursday for AMZ135-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ136.
     Gale Warning from 2 AM to 11 AM EST Thursday for AMZ137.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for AMZ150-152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM/SGK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RM/SK/SGK
MARINE...RM/SK/SGK
FIRE WEATHER...RM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
CLIMATE...MHX