038
FXUS62 KMHX 241815
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
215 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak coastal low pressure offshore will continue to lift NNE of
the area tonight. A strong cold front will move through late
Monday, bringing a noticeably cooler and drier airmass and our
next chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Sun...Latest analysis shows weak low pressure
centered about 60 miles east of Cape Hatteras, as cold front
approaches the Mid-Atlantic. Scattered light showers ongoing
along the immediate coast this afternoon, with bulk of precip
over the Gulf Stream. The low will continue to move NNE tonight
with skies gradually clearing and precip ending from west to
east, leaving only low to sct high clouds. While clearing skies
and light winds support the threat for fog development,
probabilities look low at this time. Lows will fall into the
upper 60s to low 70s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sun...A cold front is forecast to move through ENC
Monday afternoon or early evening, eventually ushering in a
noticeably cooler and drier airmass. Prior to that, a brief
period of SSW flow ahead of the front should allow temps to warm
into the mid to upper 80s, near climo. Limited moisture
advection is expected ahead of the front, which should limit the
convective coverage and strength of any thunderstorms that
manage to develop, despite improved forcing. Will continue low
chance pops, with best chances along and east of Hwy 17.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 AM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Below to well below normal temperatures mid to late-week

Behind Monday`s front, an anomalously deep upper trough will move
over the ERN U.S. Within this trough, a fast-moving mid-level
shortwave is forecast to pivot through the Southeast U.S. Tuesday
night into Wednesday, with an area of low-mid level frontogenesis
overlapping with modest moisture. This may allow a quick round of
showers Tuesday night-Wednesday morning. In the wake of that wave,
strong high pressure is forecast to settle into the region, along
with a much drier airmass. This should do two things - 1) support a
decreased chance of showers and 2) support a period of below to well
below normal temperatures.

During this time, the ECMWF`s EFI suggests the potential for record
or near-record low temperatures. For reference, normal highs this
time of year are in the upper 80s, and normal lows are in the low
70s. The latest blended guidance suggests lows in the 50s inland and
60s along the coast, with the potential for highs to only top out in
the 70s to low 80s. Of note, some of the coolest available guidance
suggests lows in the mid 50s inland, and low to mid 60s along the
coast. It appears that the coolest night will be Wednesday night as
high pressure moves overhead, allowing the best radiational cooling
conditions.

Later in the week, deterministic guidance have begun to back off on
the potential for another coastal low to develop near the Southeast
U.S., although there is still a modest signal in ensemble guidance.
We`ll continue to monitor this potential, but given the recent
trends, the late-week period is beginning to look drier and
potentially cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 215 PM Sun...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. While iso showers will be possible through late this
afternoon, expect any lingering precip to remain east of the
terminals. Skies will grad clear from west to east overnight,
leaving only few/sct high clouds. Patchy fog will be possible
inland, though probabilities look low at this time. A cold front
will approach the terminals Monday, bringing sct showers and
storms Mon afternoon, with best chances at EWN and OAJ.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 245 AM Sunday...Another chance of SHRA is expected
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, although the chance of
TSRA appears low (<10% chance). Sub- VFR conditions may
accompany Monday`s SHRA and TSRA, but then an extended period of
mostly VFR conditions is anticipated. The one exception is
during the overnight and early morning hours mid-week as there
is a good signal for radiational cooling BR/FG development.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 215 PM Sun...Latest obs show NE winds 10-20 kt, strongest
across the outer central and southern waters, with seas 5-9 ft
north of Ocracoke and 3-6 ft south. SCAs continue for portions
of the southern and northern waters late tonight and central
waters through Mon. Weak low pressure centered about 60 miles
east of Cape Hatteras will continue to move NNE tonight with
winds and seas slowly improving. A cold front will approach the
waters Monday with winds becoming S-SW 5-15 kt ahead of it.
Post-Erin long period swell will continue to grad subside with
seas gradually becoming 2-5 ft. Though 6 ft seas could linger
across the outer central waters into the early evening.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 245 AM Sunday...An extended period of northeasterly flow
(10-15kt) is expected over the upcoming week. Long period ENE
swell from the remnants of Hurricane Erin will continue to
gradually lay down, with seas expected to finally fall below 6ft
by Tuesday. Seas of 2-4 ft are then expected to be the theme
for the rest of the week. Of note, some ensemble guidance
continue to suggest another coastal low may develop east of the
Carolinas mid to late week, although this signal has trended
weaker. Should a low develop, there could be a bump up in winds
and seas.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ150-156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...CQD/OJC
MARINE...CQD/RM