474
FXUS62 KMHX 051049
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
649 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Three will drift towards the Carolinas this
weekend, bringing with it an increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms, including the risk of locally heavy rainfall,
through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 3 AM Sat...

- Waves of showers and thunderstorms expected today with locally
  heavy rain at times as Tropical Depression Three drifts
  towards the Carolinas

Latest analysis this morning shows split mid-level flow across
the eastern CONUS as closed low over the Florida Peninsula and
western Atlantic remains stationary under ridging building over
the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, newly formed
Tropical Depression Three is moving little roughly 250 miles
south-southwest of Wilmington while yesterday`s backdoor front
remains stalled south of Cape Lookout.

The slow moving nature of TD3 will present the opportunity for
multiple days of moderate to heavy rainfall. While greater
chances of rainfall do not pick up until Saturday night, current
high-res guidance shows the potential for multiple bands of
precipitation associated with a surface trough/the outer edges
of the low pushing onshore today. The best chances for precip
are currently along the Outer Banks south of Hatteras and along
the Crystal Coast. Shear profiles remain rather weak, so not
currently expecting any severe threat. Storms may bring brief
periods of heavy rainfall given PWATs of 1.75-2.00". WPC has
maintained a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for most of the
region today.

Outside of showers and thunderstorm chances, cloud cover is
expected to be more expansive tomorrow. This is forecast to keep
highs a bit cooler, with mid-80s along the coast and upper-80s
inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sat...Heaviest rainfall of the day is expected
tonight as TD3 and associated deep tropical moisture begins to
lift north and west with PWATs surging north of 2". Like today,
most likely area for heavy to torrential rainfall will be
focused along the Crystal Coast and the Outer Banks south of
Cape Hatteras where convergence will be enhanced along the
stalled frontal boundary. Storm total rainfall into Sunday
morning will likely range from 1-2", but HREF LPMM guidance
suggests local maxima of up to 4" are not unreasonable. Shear
overnight will change little, and the severe threat remains
negligible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 0300 Saturday...

Key Messages

 - NHC has upgraded the Low off the SECONUS coast to TD3.

 - Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall possible through at
least mid-week depending on the behavior of the low

Aloft, broad upper ridging will expand eastward across the
midwest. Farther to the south, a mid-level low will rotate over
the eastern Gulf, FL, and the waters off the southeast coast. At
the surface, a weak low will develop along the offshore stalled
frontal boundary that brought heavy rain to the area earlier
this week. TD3 is expected to meander near the FL/GA coast and
slowly move north toward the Carolinas on late tonight and into
Sunday. Some intensification is possible and the system may
reach tropical storm strength before making landfall in SC.
After making landfall, the system is expected to quickly weaken,
but move slowly Nward into VA in the early week. The slow
moving nature of this system will present the opportunity for
multiple days of moderate to heavy rainfall. The main hazard of
concern for ENC will be heavy rainfall and a heightened Rip Risk
into the early week. WPC has at least part of, if not the
entire FA outlined in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall
Sunday and Monday.

Next week, the remnant circulation will continue to pull
moisture over the area from the S, keeping PoPs higher than
climo. In addition to this, the increased moisture and building
thicknesses will lead to a rise in temps that could approach
Heat Advisory criteria Tues and Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sat/...
As of 650 AM Sat...VFR at all terminals this morning with little
change in prior thinking. Expecting mainly VFR conditions under
increasing high level clouds through daybreak as TD3 meanders a
few hundred miles to our south. Later today, hi-res guidance
continues to hint for multiple bands of showers and
thunderstorms to move across the region from south to north,
enhanced by a stalled frontal boundary just south of Cape
Lookout. Expanded PROB30s to all terminals, with iso to sct
coverage for PGV and ISO in the afternoon and higher coverage
for EWN and OAJ in the afternoon and early evening.

Coastal plain terminals get a break from precipitation at
sunset, but shower and thunderstorm risk persists for EWN and
OAJ as TD3 begins to drift northward and send deeper tropical
moisture with it. Heavy to torrential downpours are likely in
overnight activity which could result in locally severe vis
restrictions.

Outside of showers and storms, MVFR cigs expected to gradually
spread north after 18z today, overspreading all terminals after
00-01z Sun.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...
As of 0315 Saturday...Sub- VFR flight cats likely through the
weekend and into early next week with multiple rounds of
moderate to heavy rainfall probable from what is now marked as
TD3 by NHC moving up the SECONUS coast, making landfall
somewhere in SC, and continuing to slowly move Nward toward VA
while dissipating early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Sat...Benign conditions prevail across area waters
this morning as regional observations show northeast to east
winds of 5-10 kt and seas around 3 feet. Expecting gradual
deterioration over waters from south to north, starting this
afternoon, as swell from TD3 (currently 255 miles SSW of
Wilmington) encroaches into Onslow and Raleigh bays. Issued SCA
for the waters south of Cape Hatteras to capture this threat,
which run through early Mon morning.

Winds will gradually increase and veer southeasterly through Sun
morning as the TC drifts northward, peaking at around 15 kt with
gusts up to 20 kt.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...
As of 0315 Saturday...Marine conditions continue to deteriorate
Sunday as what is currently marked as TD3 off the SECONUS coast
slowly lifts north into the Carolinas. Current forecast calls
for Serly 10-20 kt Sunday and Monday while seas build to 4-6
ft, then SW around 10-20 kt Tuesday with seas subsiding to 3-4
ft. However, uncertainty remains with the ultimate strength and
track of the low and subsequently the marine conditions.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-199.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Monday for AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Monday for AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...MS/CEB
MARINE...MS/CEB