894
FXUS62 KMHX 261946
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
246 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area tonight. This front will
be followed up by a reinforcing cold front late Thanksgiving.
High pressure then builds in over the weekend. High pressure
shifts offshore early next week, giving way to a potentially
more robust frontal system and rainmaker.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - No hazardous weather expected as pattern turns cooler

Amplified pattern in place across the CONUS this afternoon with
strong closed low swirling over the Great Lakes and broad
troughing in place over the eastern half the country, while over
the rest ridging continues to expand. At the surface,
respectably strong low pressure (~993 mb) is occluding over the
western Great Lakes while secondary low is lifting towards the
Delmarva Peninsula, dragging a cold front across the Carolinas
and southeast.

This cold front was supposed to be the focus of some showers and
a low risk of a thunderstorm, but with very weak forcing and dry
antecedent conditions, this activity has now completely fizzled
out per satellite and radar trends. The only impact from this
activity appears to be an enhancement of wind gusts likely due
to evaporative cooling. New Bern is currently experiencing
this, having reported an earlier gust of 34 kt at the airfield.
This risk will continue for a few more hours while insolation is
maximized.

After hitting the mid to upper The rest of this afternoon and
tonight will see further clearing as CAA and dry in fills in
behind this first front. Winds will remain elevated overnight,
especially across OBX where gusts up to 25-30 mph are likely, as
temperatures steadily march downward into the upper 30s to low
40s inland, mid 40s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THANKSGIVING DAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - No hazardous weather expected

Continued clear and cool weather expected for Thanksgiving as
cold front pushes further offshore and new airmass establishes
itself over the Carolinas. Highs will only reach into the low to
mid 50s, with less gusty northwesterly winds inland but still
some gusts to 20-25 mph along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages

  - Very cold Fri night forecast after Thanksgiving with lows in
    the 20s

  - Monitoring the potential for meaningful rainfall next week

Widespread freezing temps are expected Thanksgiving night, but
coldest portion of the airmass is expected to be overhead Friday
and Friday night as 850mb temps fall to nearly 15 degrees below
normal. With high pressure overhead Friday night, excellent
radiational cooling conditions may allow some inland areas of
the coastal plain to fall into the upper teens.

The cold airmass from Thanksgiving is expected to begin to
moderate over the weekend as southerly return flow develops.
This will occur in advance of a positively-tilted upper trough
that is forecast to develop from the Southwest U.S. into the
Central U.S. Within this regime, medium range guidance shows
some significant differences regarding individual shortwaves
that are forecast to traverse the Southeast U.S. It`s a pattern
worth keeping an eye on as there is a decent signal for coastal
low development, especially early to mid next week. This signal
shows up in both deterministic and machine learning guidance.
This pattern typically carries a higher level of uncertainty,
though, as guidance often struggles with the evolution of
shortwaves as they eject out of the base of the trough.

At face value, the latest signal in deterministic and machine
learning guidance suggests an increased risk of meaningful
rainfall, and the forecast will reflect this potential.

Temperatures are expected to moderate by Sunday, but may then
get pulled back down if more persistent northeasterly flow
redevelops next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1 PM Wed...Cold front currently entering WNC will push
eastward and cross ENC this evening. Gusty swrly winds ahead of
the front will weaken with loss of diurnal heating late this
afternoon. Short duration of tempo MVFR early this afternoon
quickly scatter by late afternoon, with skies becoming skc this
evening.

Thu through Sat...Mainly VFR with dry and cold high pres
overhead through early weekend. Bouts of gusty nwrly winds due
to strong CAA both Thu afternoon and again Fri afternoon.

Sun through Mon...The high moves offshore Saturday night with
precip chances increasing later on Sun as next cold front
approaches, and along with it a chance for sub VFR cond
developing.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - Gale Warning remains in effect from Cape Lookout to Cape
   Hatteras

 - Elevated winds and seas to last into tonight, and then
   redevelop Thursday night into Friday

Elevated southwesterly winds persist across area waters ahead of
dry cold front currently advancing across inland zones this
afternoon. Regional observations show around 15 kt across inland
sounds and near-shore waters, but over warmer Gulf Stream
enhanced mixing is resulting in winds of around 25 kt with gusts
nearing Gale force. Seas have responded, building to 4-6 feet in
stronger winds and 3-4 feet elsewhere.

The Gale Warning will continue across Raleigh Bay, although
conditions are marginal and conditions will likely be
infrequent. The most likely window for the strongest winds and a
risk for gusts to 40 kt will be immediately ahead of the main
front, forecast to cross the waters shortly after sunset.

The frontal passage will put an end to the stronger southerly
flow. Despite enhanced mixing behind the front, winds aloft are
not expected to be as strong, which should limit the risk of
25kt+ winds. Because of this, the current marine headlines will
only address the southerly, pre- frontal winds.

The only changes to headlines were to extend the SCA for Pamlico
Sound with hi-res guidance suggesting a slightly more robust, if
still short-lived, post-frontal wind surge.

Outlook: A reinforcing shot of cold air and enhanced mixing
will likely lead to another risk of 25kt winds across much of
the ENC waters Thursday night into Friday. Marine headlines are
likely to be issued soon for this surge of northwesterly winds.
High pressure then builds in over the weekend, leading to
lighter winds (5-15kt) and lower seas (2-3ft). The next period
for inclement boating weather will be next Tuesday ahead of the
next front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1 PM Wed...

Key Messages:

 - Fire weather concerns Thursday and Friday with gusty winds
   and low relative humidities.

Eastern NC has been experiencing Moderate to locally Severe
drought conditions with a long duration of little to no
rainfall. Behind a cold front tonight, dry air ushers into the
region, allowing relative humidities to drop into the 20-30%
range Thu afternoon, and 25-35% Fri afternoon. In addition, wind
gusts will be in the 20+ mph each day. Considering the drought
conditions and decreasing greenery as the fall season
progresses, we will see an increased potential for fire weather
concerns.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ135-152-
     158.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ154-156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...MS
FIRE WEATHER...MHX