694
FXUS62 KMHX 101511
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1111 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will persist across the region into Monday as
coastal trough lingers. More typical summertime weather regime
returns from Tuesday onward.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
As of 1111 AM Sun...Have inc pops locally along the Crystal
Coast, as area of morning convective showers moves ashore. As
the batch of rain moves inland through the afternoon, precip
will become more scattered in nature as it outruns the sfc warm
front/coastal trough lingering just off the coast. Little in the
way of instability under nerly flow regime, so kept thunder
chances in the low end (20-40% range), but can`t rule out some
strikes in the high PW environment.

Prev disc...As of 250 AM Sun...

Key Messages

- Locally heavy rain may lead to localized flooding today

Latest analysis shows high pressure centered over the NE and
Mid-Atlantic ridging into the Carolinas, with coastal troughing
offshore and stalled front to the south. Wedge of high pressure
begins to weaken today as offshore boundary and weak low lifts
towards the area. This will support scattered to numerous
showers and iso thunderstorms, with coverage likely increasing
from south to north through the day, peaking during the
afternoon and early evening. Showers and iso tstms beginning to
blossom offshore, gradually pushing towards the coast early this
morning. PWATs will surge to 1.8-2.25". Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible today, with highest totals likely across the
southern half of the area...this could lead to localized
flooding concerns. Below normal temps will continue today with
clouds and NE-E flow, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
along the Outer Banks, and low to mid 80s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Except bulk of convection to dissipate with
loss of heating this evening, likely blossoming again offshore
late tonight then pushing towards the immediate coast. Expect
lows temps a little warmer (low 70s) than the past few nights
with cloud cover and E-SE low lvl flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 AM Sun...

Key Messages

 - Slightly below average temperatures shift back to more
climatological normals by mid-week.

 - Elevated chances of showers and a few thunderstorms continues
into Monday as coastal trough and deep moisture linger.

 - Climatologically normal chances of precipitation return by mid-
week.

Medium range forecast for eastern NC remains unsettled into Monday
as wedge of high pressure lingers but waves of mid-level vorticity
migrate along the southeastern coast. Offshore troughing will remain
just offshore, well aligned with an axis of anomalously high moist
ure (forecast PWATs of 2-2.25" are roughly 125-150% of normal for
mid-August). Thus, showers with locally heavy rainfall are likely to
continue into Monday. Northeast flow will keep instability limited
to no higher than 1000 J/kg CAPE, save for more unstable areas along
the immediate coast, so not expecting widespread thunderstorms.
Highest rain chances are along the Crystal Coast where low-level
convergence is expected to be maximized along the trough axis. Most
likely time period for rainfall is from midday into the early
evening hours for inland locales, but along the coast and Outer
Banks shower and storm activity from the nocturnal max over the
waters may be ongoing at sunrise. Here, where instability is
highest, would be the area to watch for isolated flash flooding
concerns as 00z HREF LPMM guidance depicts a risk for totals of 2"+
in a worst case scenario. The localized nature of this threat
precludes any flood headlines this package.

High pressure will gradually break down and move offshore Tuesday
through the rest of the week, and a more typical summer pattern will
develop as the offshore trough is kicked out to sea. More typical,
limited coverage precip chances expected from here as ridging and
subsidence strengthen. Exception may be on Thursday as a weak front
approaches the area, but forcing with this feature appears
negligible enough to make little difference in convective
coverage. Continued to adjust NBM guidance downward to more
typical climo PoPs (30-40%). Temperatures return to around to
slightly above average, and combined with increasing humidity
peak heat indices hover around 100- 105 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 730 AM Sun...Widespread IFR cigs currently across the
terminals, which will likely improve between 13-14z. Expect
cigs to bounce between VFR and MVFR through the day, with shower
and iso tstms increasing in coverage from south to north.
Guidance shows cigs lowering to MVFR toward sunset tonight, with
potential for widespread sub-VFR conditions tonight into early
Monday.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 210 AM Sun...Risk of sub-VFR conditions persists into Monday
with showers and a few thunderstorms, with locally heavy rainfall at
times, persisting along stubborn offshore trough boundary.
Probabilities of sub-VFR maximized along the southern coast and
Outer Banks due to proximity to the trough. Farther inland, shower
and thunderstorm risk will be more in line with typical summer
diurnal patterns.

Climatologically normal coverage is forecast from Tues onward.
Threat of low stratus and some fog continues each morning, with
strongest signals both Mon and Tues mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Latest obs show NE-E winds 5-15 kt gusting
to 20 kt across the outer central and southern waters, with seas
3-5 ft. High pressure will continue to ridge in from the north
with weak coastal trough and low pressure offshore. NE-E winds
5-15 kt will continue today with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft.
Winds become more E-SE 5-10 kt overnight.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected today, which
may bring locally enhanced winds, periods of moderate to heavy
rain and lightning.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 215 AM Sun...Benign boating conditions expected in the
long term period in regards to seas and winds, but lingering
offshore trough will continue to serve as a focal point for
ongoing showers and thunderstorms Monday extending into Tues AM,
especially over Raleigh and Onslow Bays. Easterly winds
gradually veer southerly Monday, then to a more typical
southwesterly by Tuesday onward as high pressure moves offshore.
Winds through the period stay at 10-15 kt and seas will hold
steady at around 2-3 feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...CQD/MS