839
FNUS76 KMFR 020822
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Black Canyon...OR-SHR
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
122 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0500 PDT on July 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
PDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...Another round of thunderstorms could hit the region
this afternoon. Chances for thunderstorms start early in the
afternoon, with the highest chances between 4 PM and 6 PM.
Activity looks to be greatly reduced by 9 PM to 10 PM. Some storms
will be dry with gusty outflows. A weak trough moving over the
area could bring cloud cover that would reduce daytime heating
and thus reduce thunderstorm chances while still bringing
slight (20-40%) chances for rain showers. Cooler temperatures
are also expected on Thursday and Friday.

Beyond the weekend, warm and dry conditions are expected through
the weekend and into next week.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Min temperature.....54 to 57 degrees.
Max humidity........58 to 62 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest at 9 to 12 mph with early morning
gusts up to 18 mph becoming northwest at
7 to 10 mph with gusts up to 14 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest at 15 to 18 mph with early morning
gusts up to 30 mph becoming northwest at
10 to 12 mph with gusts up to 17 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North-northwest at 10 to 12 mph.
CWR.................18 percent.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny becoming partly sunny. 15-30% chances
of afternoon showers. 10-25% chances of
afternoon thunderstorms.
Chance of lightning.29 percent.
Max temperature.....82 to 85 degrees.
Min humidity........20 to 24 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest at 4 to 7 mph becoming
west-northwest at 6 to 8 mph with afternoon
gusts up to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds possible around afternoon thunderstorms.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest at 8 to 10 mph becoming
west-northwest at 10 to 12 mph with afternoon
gusts up to 17 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds possible around afternoon thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL increasing to 11400 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North at 10 to 12 mph becoming west at
14 to 16 mph in the afternoon.
CWR.................18 percent.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy becoming mostly clear. Chances
of showers (30%) and thunderstorms (25%)
persist to start the evening but decrease.
Nocturnal activity is not expected.
Chance of lightning.25 percent.
Min temperature.....49 to 52 degrees.
Max humidity........54 to 58 percent.
Eye level winds.....West at 6 to 8 mph with evening gusts up to
10 mph becoming northwest at 2 to 4 mph
early Thursday morning.
Wind (20 ft)........West at 10 to 12 mph with evening gusts up to
17 mph becoming northwest at 6 to 8 mph
early Thursday morning.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest at 10 to 12 mph becoming north at
8 to 10 mph early Thursday morning.
CWR.................18 percent.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. 30-40% chance of afternoon
showers. 5-10% chance of afternoon
thunderstorms.
Chance of lightning.19 percent.
Max temperature.....77 to 80 degrees.
Min humidity........20 to 24 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest at 2 to 4 mph becoming southwest at
7 to 9 mph with afternoon gusts up to
14 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest at 5 to 7 mph becoming southwest at
12 to 14 mph with afternoon gusts up to
20 mph.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL increasing to 11200 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North at 6 to 8 mph becoming southwest at
20 to 22 mph.
CWR.................12 percent.

$$
Forecaster...DALDRUP
Requested by...Zachary Hutchins
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517108.0/MFR
.DELDT 07/02/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL orlfc@firenet.gov,samuel_tacchini@fws.gov,christopher_chapple@fws.gov