527
FXUS66 KMFR 161739
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1039 AM PDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows low clouds confined to the
Coquille Basin, and along the coast and just offshore from about
Cape Blanco north. A thin layer of high clouds are also moving from
north to south east of the Cascades. Dry weather will continue today
with the best chance for any isolated storms staying south of the
forecast area with a drier air mass at the mid levels compared to
yesterday. We`ll still have some cumulus build ups in southern Modoc
County, but that`s it. The marine stratus in the areas mentioned
above should burn off in the next few hours.

The past 24 hours observed lightning strikes shows none over our
forecast area.

A preliminary look at the data points to a continued dry forecast
through at least the middle of next week. This will be looked at
in more detail. -Petrucelli



&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period for most locations. Gusty northerly winds are expected
along the coast this afternoon, including at North Bend (~30kt).
Expect the typical diurnal increase in north to northwest breezes
(~10-20kt) for inland locations this afternoon as well.

Marine layer clouds will mostly dissipate or at least be off the
immediate coast this afternoon, but guidance is showing potential
for MVFR ceilings to move back in early this evening (~01Z). Even
so, with low-level flow turning offshore, stratus may not last all
night at North Bend. The most likely scenario is MVFR stratus
breaking up to SCT and pushing offshore after 09Z. Just inland, in
the Coquille Valley, ceilings may get trapped for a while, so MVFR
cigs are likely to last there the longest. VFR prevails elsewhere
tonight into Thursday morning with winds subsiding. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 830 AM Wednesday, April 16th...A thermal trough
will bring gusty northerly winds and steep to very steep seas to the
coastal waters, with the strongest winds and steepest seas south of
Cape Blanco through late tonight. Very steep seas are possible as
far north as Cape Arago with gale gusts possible from Gold Beach
southward and within 30 NM from shore this afternoon/evening. The
thermal trough will vary in strength easing back a bit Thursday into
Friday, but with conditions at least remaining hazardous to small
craft. It looks like the thermal trough will re-strengthen this
weekend with strong northerlies again (and a return of possible gale
force winds south of Cape Blanco) along with steep to very steep
seas. -Spilde/BR-y


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 AM PDT
     Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-370.

&&

$$