320
FXUS66 KMFR 101051
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
251 AM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

.DISCUSSION...Satellite shows clear skies across most of southern
Oregon with some high clouds in eastern Lake County and Coos
County. Mid and high level clouds are moving in from the west
overnight as a front moves inland today. Nighttime microphysics
shows fog in more west side valleys tonight including the Illinois
Valley and Umpqua Basin, and more of the Rogue Valley is filling
in with fog as well. Current observations and cameras show that
these areas are under dense fog conditions, so a Dense Fog
Advisory has been issued. Due to the past few days having dense
fog in areas through the late morning, the Dense Fog Advisory out
until 10 AM. Please take extra caution and give yourself extra
time for travel. There is also still an Air Stagnation Advisory
out for the stagnant air conditions through 10 AM. Please see
NPWMFR for more details on these hazards.

Morning temperatures will be similar to yesterday with more 20s and
30s morning with inland temperatures overall into the 20s and 30s
this morning. Temperatures this afternoon will mainly be 40s and
50s, a few degrees above normal for this time of year.

However, a front makes its way into the picture today and could
bring some precipitation. A line of showers will start at the coast
between 7-8 AM and will continue moving east. The most likely time
for west side valleys to see showers would be later in the morning
and into the start of the afternoon today. AS it reaches farther
into the Cascades it will start breaking apart with a few scattered
showers east of the Cascades this afternoon. On average, areas west
of the Cascades will see around a tenth of an inch to around a
quarter of an inch of rain today. For snowfall, most areas will see
under an inch, although areas near and north of Crater Lake could
see new accumulations reach 2-4 inches. The area with the most
rainfall potential will be in Coos county and central Douglas County
into Roseburg and east.

By the time the front moves out of the area, high temperatures this
weekend will be a few degrees below normal and back to 40s and low
50s west and 30s east. Mornings will also be colder and
near/slightly below normal this weekend with teens and low 20s east
and mostly 30s west. On Sunday another disturbance will come in to
the east of the ridge and will likely bring minimal impacts to the
area other than a couple showers that could creep into Douglas
County and parts of the Cascades north of Diamond Lake. The latest
trends are moving these impacts farther north, and there is a <25%
chance to see precipitation Sunday in those areas.

The disturbance tracks south of the ridge into Southern California
Monday and after the center of the ridge reaches the PNW Tuesday and
Wednesday of next week, and that is when afternoon temps will turn
closer to normal again. The next area to watch is next Friday when a
disturbance moves along the front edge of high pressure in the
area, and this could bring light precip to the area. -Hermansen

&&

.AVIATION...10/06Z TAFS...Areas of IFR low clouds remain in the
Scott Valley, the Rogue Valley west of Grants Pass, and the Umpqua
Basin near Roseburg this evening, and these will start to spread out
again tonight. Expect LIFR to return to Medford late this
evening/overnight. The next front will approach the coast late
tonight. This will bring lowering ceilings and visibility (probably
MVFR) to the coast by early Friday morning along with some light
rain/drizzle. The front will move inland and this should lift the
LIFR conditions at Roseburg to MVFR as light rain begins (~16Z)
Friday morning. It will probably take most of Friday morning to do
this at Medford, but expect a similar scenario there with a good
chance (>60%) of at least a little light rain Friday afternoon. Over
the East Side, VFR prevails through Friday morning. Local MVFR
ceilings could develop across the north Friday afternoon along with
some light rain/snow, but precip chances at Klamath Falls are
generally 30% or less.
-Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Friday, January 10, 2025...As a cold
front pushes through the region today, another steep west swell will
impact the waters bringing conditions hazardous to small craft
through at least Saturday afternoon. High pressure will build
offshore, and a thermal trough will develop near the coast. This
will result in wind speeds of 15 to 25 knots and gusts upwards of 35
knots, especially around and south of Cape Blanco. Currently, gales
are likely to the south of our forecast area. That said, we will
keep an eye on trends because if we don`t get gale winds, there is a
chance hazardous seas could develop. Either way, the potential for
conditions hazardous to smaller craft will exists through at least
the weekend before conditions start to ease on Monday.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     ORZ023>026-029>031.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ023-024-
     026.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning
     to 4 PM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$