555
FXUS66 KMFR 011715
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1015 AM PDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.DISCUSSION...The latest visible image shows clear skies over the
entire forecast area. However some clouds associated with a weak
front northwest of our area will advance over the marine waters
late this afternoon and this evening. The weak front will push
through the area late tonight. The main effect from this will be
an increasing marine layer along the coast and into portions of
Coos and Douglas County, mainly in the Umpqua Basin with low
clouds in these areas later tonight into Wednesday morning. The
main adjustment to the forecast was to keep skies clear through
this afternoon, otherwise everything else is on track.
-Petrucelli


&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z TAFS...VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period for most areas. Gusty north to northeast winds will
continue over the terrain through the morning, then ease by the
afternoon. Winds will generally be weaker across the area today, but
still gusty along the coast this afternoon. A weak marine push will
likely bring some IFR ceilings to the coast north of Cape Blanco
tonight with MVFR cigs possible into the Umpqua Basin. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. -Schaaf/BR-y


&&

.MARINE...Updated 850 AM PDT Tuesday, October 1, 2024...A persistent
thermal trough pattern will be in place through Thursday,
maintaining gusty north winds and wind driven seas. Conditions will
briefly improve for today as winds drop below gales, especially
north of Coos Bay, but steep seas and advisory level winds will
persist for all areas south of Coos Bay through this afternoon.
Conditions gradually worsen this evening into Wednesday as the
thermal trough restrengthens and north winds increase again. Very
steep seas will develop south of Gold Beach by this evening, with
gales expected to return south of Cape Blanco by early Wednesday
morning. Meanwhile, a moderate northwest swell will move into the
waters tonight into Wednesday. This will bring very steep combined
seas due to swell and wind waves to most of the waters beyond 1-2 nm
from shore and from Reedsport southward.

Gales ease Wednesday night, but advisory level north winds will
persist through Thursday along with steep to very steep seas. The
thermal trough pattern is disrupted Thursday night as a weakening
front moves through the region. This will result in overall
improving conditions with sub-advisory winds and seas through much
of the weekend. Seas look to build again early next week with the
potential for another longer period (14-16 seconds) moderate swell
(8 to 9 ft). /BR-y


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for ORZ618>623.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT
     Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Gale Warning from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ376.

&&

$$