722
FXUS66 KMFR 041149
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
449 AM PDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New Aviation Section...


.AVIATION (12Z TAFs)...

Brief periods of IFR conditions will be possible along the coast
through the morning hours, but generally speaking expecting this
to be a VFR TAF cycle. Overall, expecting light wind speeds and
high clouds through the majority of this cycle.

-Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 344 AM PDT Fri Apr 4 2025/

DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows clear skies over the forecast
area. The only exception is some low clouds forming in the deeper
valleys in portions of Coos and northwest and southwest Douglas
Counties. Also a very thin layer of high cirrus is moving in from
the northwest over the marine waters.

It will be dry today through Saturday afternoon with warmer
afternoon temperatures. Forecast highs Friday are expected to be in
the upper 60s to low 70s for the interior westside valleys and upper
50s east of the Cascades,. Saturday forecast highs will be in the
low to mid 70s for the interior westside valleys, and low to mid 60s
east of the Cascades.

An upper trough and front will approach the area late Saturday
night. Precipitation will reach the coast late Saturday night, then
gradually move inland west of the Cascades Sunday morning into
Sunday afternoon. There`s a low chance for precipitation to make it
east of the Cascades Sunday afternoon. However, the majority of the
operational models and individual ensemble members keep the bulk of
the precipitation along and west of the Cascades. In contrast, the
operational GFS and ensemble members brings the precipitation
farther east Sunday afternoon.

The clusters are in pretty good agreement with the upper pattern
similar to the ECMWF solutions. Therefore the forecast for Saturday
night into Sunday will lean towards keeping the eastside dry into
Sunday afternoon.

The front will move inland Sunday evening as a shortwave trough acts
as a "kicker" pushing the front inland, followed by post frontal
showers Sunday night into Monday.

We could catch a brief break in the action Monday night, but the
upper flow will be westerly, with another front pushing into the
area Tuesday afternoon. The best chance for precipitation Tuesday
should be along the coast, coastal mountains, Cascades, and north of
the Umpqua Divide.

500mb heights will increase Tuesday evening and night, with
precipitation diminishing and shifting north. Wednesday will be dry
and milder.

It could stay dry Wednesday night, but the operational GFS and
individual ensemble members show a weak shortwave withing a
southwest flow could bring a weak front into the area Thursday
morning. In contrast the operational ECMWF and individual ensemble
members suggest dry weather will continue through Wednesday night
with precip arriving Thursday morning. Either way, the front is not
expected to be much of an impact. More of what we would typically
see this time of the year. -Petrucelli

AVIATION...04/06Z TAFs...VFR is expected to prevail for most of the
TAF period. A brief period of marine stratus is possible over North
Bend early Friday morning, and has been included in the forecast.
Guidance also indicates low chances for fog with MVFR/IFR Roseburg
and Medford early Friday morning, but there is not enough confidence
in those outcomes to add them to the forecast. VFR areawide is
likely late Friday morning through Friday evening.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM Friday, April 2, 2025...A period of
relatively calm conditions is expected through Saturday. Thereafter,
a building long period (17-20 seconds) west swell is anticipated on
Sunday, and this will likely lead to steep seas and hazardous
conditions over the waters. A beach hazard is in place for sneaker
waves on Sunday, but steep seas will likely continue into next week.

-Guerrero

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement from late Saturday night through Sunday
     afternoon for ORZ022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Beach Hazards Statement from late Saturday
     night through Sunday afternoon for PZZ356.

&&

$$