187
FXUS66 KMFR 101200
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
500 AM PDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Updated AVIATION section

.DISCUSSION...A weak upper level ridge is over the area today
resulting in mild to warm temperatures and dry weather. An upper
low will approach from the west-northwest tonight. Models show
agreement that this low will weaken as it nears the coast near
the Oregon-California border late tonight and moves onshore early
Saturday morning. Moisture around this low is forecast to bring
light rain into portions of southwest Oregon, mainly along and
near the coast, and into portions of northern California. Best
chances for showers Friday night through Saturday (30-40%) will be
across Curry County and western Siskiyou County. A slight chance
for rain showers extends further inland into Joesphine and
southern/eastern Jackson Counties in Oregon. Isolated showers are
also possible into Modoc County. For other inland areas across the
CWA, very low (5-10%) chances for rain are expected. Temperatures
will trend cooler Friday into Saturday but are expected to stay
slightly above normal for this time of year.

The low will shift eastward Saturday night and expect a return to
mild and dry weather under high pressure Sunday and Monday. Then,
Tuesday night into Wednesday, a stronger upper level trough
arrives. Models continue to indicate this will be a moister and
potentially, stronger system, bringing light to moderate
precipitation to the area along with cooler temperatures. Models
and ensembles continue to show good agreement on the arrival of
this trough and associated surface front but continue to show
variability in the strength of the system as it moves through and
how much precipitation may fall. Overall, expect a cooler and
wetter pattern mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...10/12Z TAFs...Overall, VFR prevails across the area
today through tonight, though expect quite a bit of high and mid
level clouds. SCT-BKN decks above 3500 feet are present in the
Umpqua Basin this morning. These clouds are at least partially
obscuring higher terrain up along the Rogue-Umpqua Divide (Sexton Mt
ASOS) and also near the Cascades primarily north of Crater Lake.
These lower clouds are expected to dissipate later this morning, but
the higher clouds will remain. Marine layer will be mostly non-
existent, but we do expect some stratus to return along the coast or
offshore, especially south of Cape Blanco as north winds turn around
to the south tonight. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday, October 10, 2024...A thermal
trough moving inland will continue to produce gusty north winds
through early this afternoon. This will result in steep,
hazardous seas south of Cape Blanco. Improving conditions will
follow mid-afternoon today through Friday night. Thereafter, west
southwest swell may briefly cause seas hazardous to small craft
across the outer waters on Saturday. Steep west northwest swell
will then likely impact a larger portion of the waters on Monday.
-Spilde


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this
     afternoon for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$

CC