082
FXUS66 KMFR 281204
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
404 AM PST Fri Feb 28 2025

.Short Term...Though the probability of precipitation is still
high from the upper trough passage Saturday night through Sunday
night, the main change from 24 hours ago is lower precipitation
amounts expected. Snow levels will fall from around 7500 feet to
4000 feet during the 36 hour event with only around 3 to 6 inches
of snow in the Cascades and 2 to 5 inches for the higher
elevations of the Siskiyou and Warner Mountains. A plowable
snowfall of a few inches on roadways will likely be limited to the
Lake of the Woods, Crater Lake, Diamond Lake, Willamette Pass,
and Cedar Pass areas. Rainfall is forecast of around threee
quarters of an inch to an inch for the Mt. Shasta area, a quarter
of an inch to three quarters of an inch for the coast, a quarter
of an inch to a half inch from the Coast Range to the Cascades,
and up to a quarter of an inch for the east side.

First, quiet weather and mild afternoons will continue through
Saturday afternoon under a ridge. Record highs were set yesterday
at Roseburg and Mt. Shasta City with readings at both of those
sites today forecast to come up shy of records by just a degree.
High clouds will increase during Saturday, otherwise the exception
to clear skies in the short term will be night and morning stratus
for the coast, and inland valleys in Coos, Curry, Douglas,
Josephine, and western Siskiyou counties. -DW

.Long Term...Weak ridging builds in Monday night into Tuesday,
but a weak upper trough will move into the Northwest during
Tuesday. Models are pretty much split 50/50 on whether this trough
will bring any precipitation to our area. It could fall apart and
result in a dry day or it could bring some showers. Either way,
the highest probability of precipitation will be from the Cascades
westward. Another disturbance in split flow aloft arrives mid
next week (Wed) with a higher probability of rain, but chances
stand at 30-60% right now, highest coast and mountains. None of
these systems appear overly windy, wet or snowy. Remaining in the
split flow regime late next week, our area should be mostly in the
dry region between the northern and southern branches.

Beyond that, some model ensemble members are showing a risk for a
stronger front to arrive next weekend, March 8th or 9th, that
could bring a return of stormy weather. However, there are still a
large number of members that maintain a drier forecast. The 8 to
14 day forecast from CPC is indicating about a 60% probability of
above average precipitation and similar odds for below normal
temperatures. We`ll continue to monitor this potential. -Spilde


&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z TAFs...Along the coast and just offshore. Marine
stratus from about Port Orford north will persist through the
morning hours with IFR ceilings and visibility. Ceilings are
expected to pull back just offshore late this morning, but
confidence on the timing is low. The TAF at North Bend shows
improving conditions at 19z, but this could be delayed by an hour or
two. South of Cape Blanco, marine stratus is working sough, but
should remain between 3-5 nm from shore, with VFR conditions
expected along the coast through the TAF period.

Inland, marine stratus has filled in over the Coquille Basin, with
low clouds and fog forming in portions of the Umpqua Basin, Grants
Pass area and Illinois Valley. Roseburg is currently VFR, but this
won`t last long with IFR ceilings and visibility expected within the
hour, and lasting through the morning hours before burning off with
VFR conditions. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue through the
TAF period. -Petrucelli

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Friday, February 28, 2025...Steep
westerly swell and moderate north winds will persist through this
morning. Seas will diminish for a brief time this afternoon, then
steep west swell builds this evening and tonight and persists
through Monday morning. Improved conditions are then expected Monday
afternoon through most of next week. -Petrucelli

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 800 PM PST Thursday, February 27,
2025...Beginning Friday evening, models support a moderate to
high risk of sneaker waves along the southern Oregon coast south
of Cape Blanco as a long period westerly swell builds into the
waters and combines with existing swells. This risk of sneaker
waves includes all beaches along Curry County. Although the
highest risk will be to west-facing beaches. A beach hazards
statement is in effect (CFWMFR). Those visiting or recreating
along the southern Oregon coast should take extra precautions.
Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on beaches than
normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly
knock people off of their feet and quickly pull them into the
cold ocean waters, resulting in serious injury or death. Waves may
also lift driftwood logs, trapping anyone caught underneath.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Saturday
     morning for ORZ022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Monday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$