841
FXUS66 KMFR 131809
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1109 AM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.DISCUSSION...Updated aviation discussion.


&&

.AVIATION...13/18Z TAFs...Low pressure is centered just off the
coast of SW Oregon currently. This is bringing widespread light rain
and mountain snow (mostly above 4500 feet) in a corridor from
Siskiyou County northward to eastern Douglas County (including
Medford). Overall, VFR prevails at the terminals, but local MVFR
with higher terrain obscuration exists within this area of
precipitation. The air mass is more convective to the west (along
the coast and over the coastal waters) and east of this area (east
of Highway 97), where isolated to scatttered showers (even a
thunderstorm) are possible through this afternoon. Precipitation
will generally shift southward and end this evening. NE-N winds will
bring in drier air tonight into Tuesday. Models aren`t showing much
fog/low cloud overnight, but given the recent rainfall, where
conditions stabilize, we do think areas of LIFR fog/low clouds could
develop. This is most likely in Roseburg and Medford, but perahps
also in Klamath Falls. On the East Side, however, guidance is
showing winds staying up most of the night and it`ll be difficult to
get lower ceilings or fog to develop under those conditions. We left
the lower conditions out of Klamath Falls for now, but will monitor
and amend if necessary. -Spilde


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 857 AM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025/

DISCUSSION...Low pressure is moving southward along the coast
this morning, bringing an area of rainfall to Jackson/southern
Josephine/Siskiyou Counties with some snow above 5000 ft in the
Cascades. This band is fairly slow moving as it gradually moves
from southwest to northeast, so it`s producing some steady
rainfall in these areas this morning. Here at the Medford Airport,
we`ve recorded 0.66" since 3 am (as of this writing ~845am). This
band is starting to weaken over the valley at least, so it`s not
likely that we`ll break the record rainfall for the date (1.33"
set in 2016), but we do expect steady rain to continue through the
morning hours before dissipating and retreating to areas south of
the OR/CA border later this afternoon. A look at area
observations shows temperatures hovering at the freezing mark
right around 3500-4000ft this morning, but any snow accumulation
is mainly above 5000 ft. Area webcams in the Cascades have been
showing periods of snow covered roads up near Diamond Lake and
also on Highway 66. Again, precipitation will continue through the
late morning and early afternoon, so if you`re venturing into the
mountains today, be prepared to encounter wintry conditions. The
overall picture was covered well in the forecast, so made some
adjustments to PoPs/QPF to fine tune the forecast for where this
band of precipitation is occurring. Please see the discussion
below for additional details. /BR-y

AVIATION...13/12Z TAFs...Low pressure is moving southward along the
coast today. Low VFR ceilings are present with passing rain and snow
showers this morning, and will have MVFR ceilings in the TAFs for
North Bend and Medford as lower clouds have been starting to
develop. MVFR ceilings are already found east of the Cascades.
Higher terrain obscurations will be present as well. Local IFR
ceilings and/or visibilities are possible in heavier rain through
this morning. Freezing levels will be pretty low for this time of
year, generally 4500-5500 feet. There is also about a 10-20% risk of
thunderstorms over the marine waters and along the immediate coast
later through 5 AM. The main axis of precipitation will shift
southward into northern California Monday, but showers can persist
into the afternoon just about anywhere beneath cyclonic flow aloft.
East winds will remain slightly elevated tonight along the Cascades
and east.

MARINE...Updated 830 AM PDT Monday, October 13, 2025...Low pressure
will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms over the waters today.
Seas will be more chaotic today as stronger north winds generate
steep wind waves. The low will move south of the area tonight and
showers will end, but seas will remain steep to very steep into
Tuesday, highest over the outer waters. Lighter winds and lower seas
should return on Wednesday into Thursday. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 434 AM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025/

DISCUSSION...Rain and snow are falling this morning. Right now,
a line of showers is present along the Cascades with showers
following west. Around 11 PM there was a strike off of the Coos
County coast, and there is a 15-20% chance for lightning through
the Coos and Curry County coasts through 5 AM.

On the snow side, snow levels are at 5,000`-5,500`, and snow is
falling in the Cascades. Cameras are showing wet roads near the
Cascades. Although roads will remain above freezing tonight, still
use caution while driving along the Cascades and east. Snowfall
totals are forecast to reach 2"-5" from yesterday evening through
this afternoon. That is not enough to issue any Winter Weather
Advisories. However, if this band of precipitation remains over
the Cascades for too long, there could be a need to issue an
Advisory if too much comes down at once. This will be monitored
this morning.

Showers will continue through the morning and into the afternoon.
This morning will have the most widespread activity with more
scattered showers in the afternoon. As the low swings southward,
showers will begin to have a more south to north movement in the
afternoon as the showers wrap around the low. Between 5 AM and this
afternoon, west side locations could see 0.20"-0.50", with the
heaviest in southern and western Siskiyou County. There is a 5-15%
chance for lightning in the Southern Oregon Cascades, east and in
Northern California through 5 PM.

Temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday, but they will
still be 5 to 15 degrees below normal. Northeast to east winds will
be elevated this afternoon into the overnight hours along the
ridgelines of the Cascades. Otherwise, typical winds will be
present. The next several days will have lows west in the 30s to low
40s (near 50 from Port Orford south) and upper 20s to low 30s east.
Tuesday will have another slight warm up with temperatures in the
60s west side and 50s east side. Tuesday`s temperatures will be on
average what`s ahead through Friday.

Drier conditions will begin for areas west of the Cascades Monday
afternoon and evening. Leftover showers will be possible Tuesday
morning/afternoon as the low moves eastward. New rainfall amounts
Tuesday are expected to be less than a tenth of an inch in most
spots.

Ridging builds at the start of the weekend and near to slightly
above normal temperatures are forecast Saturday. Enjoy it while it
lasts because the next day a trough moves in and brings rain chances
with cooler temperatures once again. Snow levels during that time
are forecast to fall to 5,000`-5,500` once again. There is agreement
that the precipitation could continue through at least Sunday
afternoon, but after that the models differ because one shows a
closed low keeping activity here while the other moves the upper
trough east faster.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ350-356.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ370-376.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ370-376.

&&

$$

MAS/MAS/MAS