Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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239 FXUS66 KMFR 060957 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 257 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024 .SHORT TERM... It`s a pretty quiet morning across southern Oregon and northern California. Satellite imagery is picking up some coastal stratus and fog near Coos Bay and Bandon. It hasn`t spread into the Umpqua Basin, although that has a low chance of happening if the dew point depression tightens up before sunrise. Right now it`s sitting at 5 degrees with calm winds in Roseburg. It will be another quiet day with high pressure still in control here. High temperatures will remain above normal for early October with highs touching 90 degrees for a high. That is indeed pretty warm for this time of year as Medford`s normal high is 77 degrees. The good news is longer nights and a lower sun angle, so temperatures will cool off rapidly in the evening. By Monday, a short wave will approach northern California with marginal moisture. Some deterministic models are painting the Warner mountains with light precipitation. The chance of cloud to ground lightning the SREF is also about 15 to 20 percent. Therefore, one can conclude there is a slight chance of thunderstorms in Modoc County and southern Lake County. We did look at some BUFR forecasting near Alturas(AAT) and there isn`t much instability in the -10C to -20C range. Therefore, showers see more likely than storms at this point. -Smith .LONG TERM... Moving into Tuesday, a deepening low well in the Pacific will bring some warmer air and southwest flow to the region. There is a 20% chance of rain along the coast near Coos Bay on Tuesday. Other than rain chances, temperatures make a notable trend lower compared to Monday as highs settle in the lower 80`s for west side valleys and upper 70`s east of the Cascades. The low and cold front nudge closer to the coast on Wednesady increasing the probability of precipitation changes mostly along the coast, although Roseburg as a 15% chance of light rain Wednesday morning and afternoon. The most exciting part of the extended forecast remains on Friday as ensembles are showing potential of some wetting rain. On the flip side, there are some ensemble members remaining completely dry through Friday. There is also another group of ensemble members pushing more of the wetting rain more to our north towards Portland and Eugene. There is still a lot to hash out even 6 days away, although the chance for 0.01 inches of rain over 24 hours ending Friday night is about 60% along the coast and 20-40% farther inland with the lower chances east of the Cascades. -Smith && .AVIATION...06/06Z TAF...Marine stratus will continue to produce IFR/LIFR conditions along the coast and in the coastal valleys north of Cape Blanco through much of the morning before clearing to VFR by around 18 UTC. Areas of MVFR/IFR are also possible around the edges of the Umpqua Valley before daybreak, but chances are low. Other areas are expected to remain VFR through the next 24 hours. -BPN/TAD && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Sunday, October 6, 2024...North winds will gradually increase south of Cape Blanco today with Small Craft Advisory conditions developing by mid to late afternoon and continuing through Monday morning, then easing Monday afternoon. Longer period swell will build through Monday as well, increasing surf and breaking action around bars. The swell period will then slowly decrease Tuesday night through early Wednesday. Winds will remain below 20 kts from mid to late week, but Small Craft Advisory seas are possible again late in the week due to building northwest swell. -BPN/Stavish && .FIRE WEATHER (Issued 100 PM Saturday October 5)... Warm, dry, and breezy conditions continue to be the theme going forward. A weak disturbance may bring a stray shower to portions of Modoc County on Sunday, but neither lightning nor wetting rains are expected. Another front could arrive late next week which may bring some rainfall to southern Oregon and northern California; but confidence in any of the details remains low at this point. In fact, its looking like the first half of October has a very good signal for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation chances according to the Climate Prediction Center. Unfortunately, this means fuels could remain receptive through approximately the first half of the month, so something for us to monitor over the next week as fire season hopes to come to an end soon. -Schaaf && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. && $$