280
FXUS62 KMFL 152354
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
654 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 647 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

  - Windy conditions expected through tonight.

  - Hazardous marine and beach conditions expected through mid-
    week.

  - A few coastal showers and storms possible through this
    afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 159 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Gloomy and breezy weather continues this afternoon as weak showers
stream across the east coast metro areas. Off and on showers can
be expected along the east coast metro areas into the overnight
hours tonight. Across Southwest Florida, mainly dry conditions
should prevail.
Only change to the active products with this update was an
extension of the Atlantic Small Craft Advisory through Tuesday
evening as breezy northeasterly flow is expected to continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Sfc obs and satellite imagery show the leading edge of an Arctic air
mass moving across SoFlo, triggering strong cold air advection
today. Northerly winds spreading across SoFlo will gradually veer NE
throughout the day as a strong 1040mb high over the E CONUS
gradually migrates eastward towards the Atlantic seaboard. This
will result in having the stronger winds affecting the immediate
Atlantic coastline with speeds and gusts to advisory levels at
times. Model ensemble data indicates that these winds are likely
to be in the seasonal 10th percentile. Therefore, a wind advisory
is now in effect for coastal locations along the east coast
starting at 6AM EST, especially for gusts to 35 mph. Even
occasional coastal gusts around 40 mph can`t be ruled out,
especially during the afternoon hours. The rest of the metro areas
could see gusts of 25-30 mph at times.

Unsecured objects like christmas decorations and potted plants could
be blown away. Motorists operating high profile vehicles may find it
difficult to drive in gusty conditions and should exercise extra
caution. Also, please see the Beach Forecast section below for more
details on the hazardous surf and rip current conditions along the
Atlantic beaches today.

Lingering moisture over the Atlantic waters may push into the
coastline at times and bring quick passing showers, or even a brief
thunderstorm through this afternoon. This moisture will combine with
a solid low inversion and the cold air advection to push a low cloud
deck across the area today. By Tuesday, the drier air gets hold of
the region with models dropping PoPs into single digits.

A cooling trend will also accompany the arctic airmass arrival with
highs today in the low-mid 70s. Tonight (Monday night into Tuesday
morning) will be the coldest with morning lows in the low-mid 50s
around the Lake region, and upper 50s to mid 60s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Models remain in fair agreement in showing a sprawling ridge over
the deep south states, which will continue to migrate eastward and
veering winds across SoFlo to the east through the end of the work
week. Prevailing subsidence and lack of deep moisture will result in
very low PoPs and no significant ran chances. Therefore, expect
generally benign and pleasant weather to prevail through the
forecast period.

Highs and lows will gradually moderate back to the 80s in
the afternoons, with near 70 degrees along the coasts each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Breezy easterly winds, gusty at times, will prevail across the
region overnight and into tomorrow. Some lingering showers will be
possible until 06Z, followed by generally VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Northerly flow will continue to increase behind a frontal passage
with strongest winds developing after 12Z, Sustained winds are
forecast to be between 25-30 knots with occasional gusts to low-end
Gale force. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all Atlantic,
Gulf, and Lake waters. The Advisories will taper off to only the
Atlantic waters later tonight. Winds and seas should fall below
hazardous levels by mid-week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 320 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

High risk of rip currents for all Atlantic beaches this morning and
continuing through the next several days as coastal winds become
breezy behind a frontal passage. There is also a High Surf Advisory
for all Palm Beach and Broward county beaches as waves and swells
increase. Highest waves along the shore could reach 9 feet or even
higher at times. Beachgoers must exercise extreme caution and wait
until conditions improve.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            66  76  67  79 /  30  10   0  10
West Kendall     62  77  62  80 /  30  10   0  10
Opa-Locka        64  77  65  80 /  20  10   0  10
Homestead        66  77  67  80 /  30  10   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  66  74  67  78 /  20  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  66  75  67  78 /  20  10   0  10
Pembroke Pines   64  77  65  80 /  20  10   0  10
West Palm Beach  64  74  66  78 /  10  10   0  10
Boca Raton       65  76  67  79 /  20  10   0  10
Naples           60  79  60  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ168-172.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ610.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATV