Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
764 FXUS62 KMFL 241131 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 731 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 102 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Early morning analysis shows a stalled surface front across northern FL and stretching along the SE US coast, with several weak areas of low pressure along the boundary. This boundary will gradually diminish by late in the day before another frontal boundary associated with a system in eastern Canada approaches the southeast US by late in the day Monday. S/SW flow will be a bit stronger today compared to the past few days, which latest hi-res guidance suggests will prevent the development of an east coast sea-breeze. Forecast soundings and HREF show PWAT values of 2-2.2 inches today with deep moisture throughout the column. Widely scattered showers and storms this morning will become more numerous across South FL this afternoon into early evening. A few strong storms will be possible with gusty winds the primary threat. Localized urban and poor drainage flooding will be possible again today with the expected high rainfall rates. WPC has the lake Okeechobee region in a marginal risk for excessive rain, but there will be a limited threat across the east coast metro as well. High temps today will range from around 90 near the lake to low/mid 90s over the rest of South FL. Max heat indices over 100 are expected and may approach advisory criteria briefly, however convection in the afternoon should prevent the need for any headlines. Convection decreases this evening and overnight but remaining mild across the area. Low temps will range from the middle 70s around the lake to upper 70s and around 80 across the rest of South FL. Overall similar pattern expected for Monday, however the westerly flow will be lighter which should help the development of the east coast sea-breeze during the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again peak during the afternoon and early evening hours, with the highest chances north of Alligator Alley. High temps on Monday will range from the low to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 102 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 The frontal boundary over the SE US will continue to sag southward eventually stalling just north of Lake Okeechobee through the remainder of the week and into the start of next weekend. A return to a more easterly low level flow regime is expected, which will shift the highest PoPs each day to the interior and SW FL during the afternoon and early evening hours, and widely scattered coastal showers during the overnight hours each night. Temperatures during the extended will continue to be above normal with highs in the low to mid 90s each day and low temps ranging from the low/mid 70s over the interior to upper 70s and around 80 closer to the coasts. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 728 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Generally westerly/southwesterly flow 5-10 kts will prevail today, with gusts up to 15-20 kts possible. Periods of MVFR/IFR will be likely this afternoon as rounds of SHRA/TSRA develop across the area. Added TEMPO groups with best timing for impacts. Conditions improve shortly after sunset and into the night. && .MARINE... Issued at 102 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Gentle to moderate S/SW breeze expected through Monday across the local waters. Seas generally 2-4 feet in the Atlantic and 2 ft or less in the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms each day may result in locally higher winds and seas. && .BEACHES... Issued at 102 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Lingering NE swell will result in a high risk of rip currents for the Palm Beach and Broward county beaches today, with an elevated risk for the Miami-Dade beaches. A moderate westerly flow will result in an elevated risk of rip currents today for the Gulf beaches. An elevated risk will remain for the east coast beaches through early this upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 79 92 79 / 60 20 50 20 West Kendall 92 77 93 77 / 60 20 40 20 Opa-Locka 93 78 94 79 / 60 20 50 20 Homestead 92 78 92 77 / 50 20 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 92 78 92 78 / 70 30 50 30 N Ft Lauderdale 92 79 93 78 / 70 30 60 30 Pembroke Pines 94 79 95 79 / 70 30 50 20 West Palm Beach 92 77 94 77 / 80 30 70 40 Boca Raton 94 78 94 77 / 70 30 60 30 Naples 90 80 91 79 / 70 40 40 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM....CMF AVIATION...ATV