669
FXUS62 KMFL 012308
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
708 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

This morning`s low clouds and fog finally burned off shortly before
Noon, with skies mostly sunny during the early afternoon hours. With
the weak high pressure ridge across South Florida, sea breezes will
dominate the local wind flow this afternoon. Latest CAMs (Convective
Allowing Models) are fairly consistent in showing scattered showers
and thunderstorms where the seabreezes intersect during the mid and
late afternoon, primarily over the interior and west of Lake
Okeechobee. With more low level dry air than the past few days,
coverage and intensity of the convection will be less.
However, with temperatures over the interior rising into the lower
90s, mixed-layer CAPE reaching 2000-2500 J/kg, steep low level lapse
rates, and cold air aloft (freezing levels around 13 kft) there
should be enough instability and low level forcing for a couple of
strong storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail. Light
steering flow may also cause higher rainfall amounts of 1-2" in
isolated spots where the convection can concentrate. Some of the
convection may backbuild towards the coasts late this afternoon, but
should not make it any farther than the outlying suburbs of both
coasts.

High pressure surface and aloft begins to build and strengthen
over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday, and this will
gradually usher in a more stable airmass and breezy SE winds to
South Florida. Once this afternoon`s convection dissipates,
little if any precipitation is indicated for tonight and
Wednesday.

The SE winds will bring a little more humidity to the area, and lows
tonight will only drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s (mid 70s
along the Atlantic coast). Highs tomorrow are expected to once again
hit 90 degrees over the interior and mid to upper 80s elsewhere,
except closer to the lower 80s at the Atlantic beaches where the
onshore SE breeze will limit the temperature rise.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Model ensembles and long range global solutions show good agreement
in keeping the region under the firm control of sprawling high
pressure, which lingers through early next week. Persisting
subsidence and a relatively dry airmass will result in mostly rain-
free and warm weather conditions, along with strong mid-level
ridging remaining over the area.

Pressure gradients are expected to strengthen across the western
Atlantic, with southern edge of the high bringing breezy and gusty
periods over SoFlo for the Thu/Fri time frame. Otherwise, mainly
benign weather should persist each day through the long term. Next
chance at some rainfall won`t arrive until early next week as a
frontal boundary approaches the area.

Afternoon highs should reach the mid 80s near the coasts, and may
climb into the upper 80s to low 90s over interior areas and around
the Lake region. It will also be rather humid and muggy, with
potential for heat index values to reach the mid 90s across much of
SoFlo, and even isolated spots touching the upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites for the 00Z period.
Winds will be predominately from the SE from 8 to 10 KT overnight
and early morning before strengthening Wednesday. Sustained
SE/SSE winds at 12-15KT with potential gusts up to 25KT after 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Benign conditions through tonight with winds and seas gradually
remaining below 10 kts and 2 feet or less respectively. However, the
increasing SE winds on Wednesday will begin a period of increasingly
hazardous marine conditions which should last into the upcoming
weekend. Current forecast trends suggest that small craft advisory
conditions could begin as early as Wednesday night and last for
several days. Winds are forecast to be near 20 knots and seas up to
6 feet.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Today is the last day of minimal rip current risk, as the increasing
SE wind will bring the rip current risk to high levels at all
Atlantic beaches from Wednesday into the upcoming weekend.
Gulf coast beaches should remain under a low rip current risk as
winds stay from an offshore direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            74  84  75  84 /  10   0   0   0
West Kendall     72  85  73  86 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        73  84  73  86 /  10   0   0   0
Homestead        74  83  75  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  74  83  74  82 /  10   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  74  83  74  83 /  10   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   74  84  75  87 /  10   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  73  85  73  83 /  10   0   0   0
Boca Raton       74  83  73  84 /  10   0   0   0
Naples           71  88  71  88 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Molleda
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...JS