Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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508 FXUS62 KMFL 300627 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 227 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 South Florida remains under the influence of a strong high- pressure ridge extending from the western Atlantic, leading to rising geopotential heights aloft. At the surface, easterly to southeasterly flow continues, bringing a moderately moist airmass (PWAT around 1.8 to 2.0 inches) onshore. This setup may result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, primarily over the interior and southwest Florida. With minimal wind shear and weak forcing for ascent, most convection will be routine, with lightning and locally strong wind gusts as the primary hazards. Little change is expected by Tuesday, with a positively tilted trough over the southeastern U.S. allowing for slight height falls over South Florida, possibly allowing for slightly less oppressive heat. Weak ESE flow will persist near the surface, and storms will likely again develop over the interior and southwestern parts of the state. The oppressive heat will continue into the early part of the week, though temperatures may be a few degrees lower than the weekend. Peak heat indices are expected to range from 105 to 110, particularly over the interior and southwest regions. Heat advisories may be warranted. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 By the middle of the week, mid and upper-level ridging will strengthen as it merges with a ridge over the eastern U.S. At the surface, light easterly flow will prevail around weak Atlantic high pressure. Uncertainty increases towards the weekend as a disturbance may develop in the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico. The ridge`s influence will keep rain chances (PoPs) in the isolated to scattered range on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the easterly low-level flow favoring the interior and southwest Florida for the best rain chances. Rain chances toward the end of the week will depend on the development and track of the disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Current guidance suggests the system will be broad and disorganized, with the rebuilt ridge likely steering any surface low west of the area, at least through the end of the week. Rain chances will increase later in the period as deeper tropical moisture filters in from the south. Temperatures will remain above normal throughout the week, with highs generally in the low 90s, and possibly mid-90s in the interior. There may be a slight temperature drop late in the week as rain chances and cloud cover increase. Overnight lows will stay in the mid to upper 70s, with no sign of the seasons first sub-70-degree low through the early part of October. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Generally VFR through the period with an overnight light and variable wind becoming more southeasterly through the day. Best chances for showers and storms will be inland and west with the potential for some impacts to APF in the afternoon and early evening. Convection and wind flow should diminish late in the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Weak southerly winds will become more east to southeast as the week progresses. Seas continue to subside and generally remain no greater than 3 to 4 feet along both the Atlantic and Gulf waters through early portions of the week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 An elevated rip current risk lingers along the Atlantic beaches of South Florida, primarily for the Broward and Palm Beach coastlines. This elevated rip current risk will generally prevail through the early week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 79 91 77 / 20 10 20 20 West Kendall 93 77 92 75 / 20 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 92 79 92 77 / 20 10 20 10 Homestead 91 79 91 77 / 20 10 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 90 79 90 77 / 20 10 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 91 79 91 77 / 20 10 20 10 Pembroke Pines 94 79 94 78 / 20 10 20 10 West Palm Beach 92 78 91 77 / 20 0 20 10 Boca Raton 92 79 91 77 / 20 10 20 10 Naples 92 77 91 77 / 40 30 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069>074-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRB LONG TERM....SRB AVIATION...RAG