024
FXUS62 KMFL 042323
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
623 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1220 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

A surface ridge of high pressure centered over the SE states will
expand and shift further southeast, allowing for winds to veer out
of a northeasterly direction this afternoon and evening. Due to the
amplitude of the ridge, winds will be lightly breezy at times this
afternoon. A strong low over the Great Lakes will weaken this ridge
over the next couple days, and the ridge is strong enough to act as
a "blocker" to prevent the trough from penetrating into South
Florida. Therefore, flow will become more zonal for Wednesday with
lighter and more variable winds as the region will be underneath
weaker high pressure. Overall, very tranquil weather will be in
place heading into late week.

As the flow pattern starts to shift to the NE and also become
lighter, we will start to see a moderating trend in regards to
temperatures with the coldest temperatures likely having occurred
earlier this morning. High temperatures today are expected in the
low to mid 70s. Overnight lows rise back into the upper 40s near the
lake, mid to upper 50s interior and west coast areas, and low 60s
along the east coast metro. For tomorrow, high temperatures rise a
little more into the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

The late week/early weekend period will feature a predominately
zonal upper flow regime, characterized by a fairly low amplitude
trough moving eastward into the western Atlantic waters. This will
maintain temperate condition as northerly surface winds gradually
veer out of the northeast. This change in low-level wind advection
will favor the further modification of a continental polar airmass
in the wake of a cold front earlier in the week, with dewpoints and
temperatures gradually rising back towards seasonable values. The
lack of moisture and synoptic support aloft will keep rain chances
to a minimum across the region, extending the prolonged period of
dry weather South Florida has experienced in the recently. High
temps will range from the mid to upper 70s through the weekend, then
gradually increasing into the low to mid 80s early next week.
Overnight lows will generally be in the mid 50s to low 60s through
the weekend, increasing to the low 60s inland and near 70 along the
coast, early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

VFR persists through the TAF period. NE winds will become L/V
over the next couple of hours which will last through tomorrow.
APF expected to shift westerly tomorrow afternoon. &&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1220 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

As high pressure gradually shifts into the western Atlantic today,
winds across all local waters will gradually diminish and seas
across the Atlantic waters will subside. Another frontal boundary
may approach the local waters towards the end of the week and into
the upcoming weekend, which may cause winds and seas to increase
during this time frame.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1220 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic Coast
beaches today. An elevated risk will remain along the Palm Beaches
late this week due to a lingering NE swell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            61  77  62  80 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     56  78  57  81 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        59  78  60  80 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        59  77  60  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  61  76  61  79 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  61  77  61  79 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   60  79  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  59  77  59  79 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       60  77  60  79 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           54  74  58  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...Rizzuto