773
FXUS62 KMFL 061109
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
709 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...New AVIATION...


.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

The weekend will end much the same way that it started, with surface
high pressure in the western Atlantic in control. The breezy SE
conditions will continue for one more day, with mostly dry and
warm conditions persisting. A few isolated showers will be
possible along the Atlantic coast throughout the day, and the HRRR
continues to suggest some scattered showers late in the day
around the lake Okeechobee region due to some confluence of winds
around the lake. Forecast soundings show fairly limited moisture
in the low levels and plenty of dry air aloft, so thunder chances
will remain low. The vast majority of the area will remain dry
again today, with partly cloudy skies and above normal
temperatures. Afternoon high temps will be in the middle 80s near
the coasts, and upper 80s to lower 90s over the interior.
Overnight lows will be in the middle 60s around the lake, to lower
70s near the coasts.

We will finally start to see a pattern change on Monday as the
ridge weakens and a front associated with a complex system moving
into the SE US approaches the region from the north. Winds will
gradually veer to a more S to SW direction throughout the day.
This will not only increase temps across the east coast metro, but
dewpoints will also rise into the lower 70s making it feel more
like May or June than early April. Afternoon high temps will be in
the upper 80s across the metro to lower 90s over the interior.
Heat indices will be in the low to middle 90s during the mid to
late afternoon hours. Most of the area will remain dry, although
some late day showers can`t be ruled out along the Gulf coast and
areas east of the lake.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Tuesday and Tuesday night will be the most active part of the extended
period. Cold front will very slowly cross South FL during the day
on Tuesday, as the upper level trough is well displaced to the
west and therefore isn`t much to push the front along. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the
front. Depending on the timing of the frontal passage, heating and
instability could help enhance some of the convection, especially
over the far southern portion of the peninsula. While the better
dynamics will be across northern FL, wouldn`t be surprised to see
a few storms on the stronger side. QPF totals area-wide aren`t
impressive, with NBM mean of 0.5 to 0.75 inches, however the 75th
percentile is over 1 inch for much of the area, so the potential
is certainly there for locally higher amounts. Regardless, the
rainfall will be a welcome sight considering the ongoing drought
situation.

While the front should be clear of south FL by late in the day
Tuesday, lingering moisture will hang around until early Wednesday
morning when the trough axis finally crosses the area and drier
air gets pulled into the area. Outside of some coastal showers,
mainly dry conditions will return for the remainder of the work
week.

Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be right around
climatological norms with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low
temps will be in the 50s/60s. As the flow becomes more easterly
late in the week, temperatures will moderate back to above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

VFR expected to continue during the next 24 hours at all terminals
with SE winds becoming breezy/gusty after 15Z. Wind direction may
shift more SW at APF around 20Z with onshore component, then back
to SE in the evening. If any isolated SHRA develops, should remain
away from the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

A moderate southeasterly breeze will continue across the local waters
through Monday before veering to the S/SW late Monday into early
Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. A brief period of
hazardous winds and seas are possible across the Atlantic waters
late Monday into early Tuesday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible over the area waters late Monday
through Tuesday. After the front crosses the area on Tuesday,
winds behind the front will become northerly. 2-4 ft seas early
this morning subside to 1-3 ft by this evening.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

As breezy southeasterly winds continue, the high risk of rip currents
will remain for the east coast beaches of South Florida through
this evening. As winds veer to a southerly and then southwesterly
direction early this upcoming week, the risk will decrease along
the east coast but increase along the Gulf beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            85  74  87  73 /  10  10  10  30
West Kendall     87  70  89  71 /  10  10  10  30
Opa-Locka        87  71  89  72 /  10  10  10  30
Homestead        86  72  86  72 /  10   0  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  85  73  86  72 /  10  10  10  30
N Ft Lauderdale  85  73  86  72 /  10  10  10  30
Pembroke Pines   90  74  91  73 /  10  10  10  30
West Palm Beach  85  71  88  71 /  10  10  20  40
Boca Raton       86  72  88  71 /  10  10  20  40
Naples           90  71  87  71 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...17