722
FXUS62 KMFL 211131
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
731 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Latest analysis shows Hurricane Erin well off the Mid-Atlantic coast
and a frontal boundary draped along the central and southern
Appalachians. As Erin continues to move northeastward over the next
couple of days, the frontal boundary will continue to sag southward
and be near the SE US coast by late Friday.

Two main areas of concern today will be the smoke associated with
wildfires that continue to burn in Western Broward, and the heat
with a light W/SW wind in place. First regarding the smoke, an Air
Quality Alert is in effect for Broward county until 9 AM this
morning. The nighttime inversion will trap the smoke in the lower
part of the atmosphere, making for hazardous air quality especially
for those with compromised respiratory conditions. With the winds
becoming more W/SW today, the smoke will drift a bit further north
today, and may impact portions of southern Palm Beach county as
well. Regarding the heat, without the help of the sea-breeze again
today, temps in the metro will easily make it into the middle 90s
with some upper 90s possible in some of the western suburbs. Only
saving grace today will be dewpoints are likely to mix out to the
lower 70s again during the afternoon and early evening. This may
prevent the need for heat advisories, but regardless heat index
values will easily make it into the 100`s again today.

As for convection, after a quiet start to the day, expect scattered
thunderstorms to develop over the western half of the area first
today and then activity will drift eastward as the day progresses.
With plenty of mid and upper level dry air in place, not expecting
widespread coverage, but PoPs will be fairly typical for late
August.

Convection dissipates this evening and then fairly quiet conditions
expected overnight, although there may be some smoke concerns again
in Broward if the Wildfire makes it another day without any
significant rainfall on it. Overnight lows will be mild ranging from
the middle 70s inland to around 80 closer to the coasts.

The westerly flow will be even weaker on Friday, which may present a
scenario where the east coast sea-breeze tries to take hold but is
unable to make much of a push inland. Latest HRRR is picking up on
this nicely, which would suggest some fairly decent coverage of
convection near the Atlantic coast. For the rest of South FL, fairly
typical thunderstorm chances during the afternoon and early evening
hours. High temps will once again be well above normal with middle
90s expected across the metro and upper 90s inland. Heat index
values will approach advisory criteria with max values of 105-110
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Frontal boundary over the SE US will settle over northern FL this
weekend before dissipating. Meanwhile, a trough will dig through the
eastern US late in the weekend into next week. A frontal boundary
associated with a system in eastern Canada will dive down from the
northern Plains to the SE US by early Monday morning and then settle
north of Lake Okeechobee by the middle of next week. This will
increase mid and upper level moisture locally and while daily PoPs
will continue to be around seasonal norms, some more robust
thunderstorms could be possible each day next week, especially by
the middle of the week.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal
with highs in the 90s and lows ranging from the middle 70s inland to
around 80 close to the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 727 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Light and variable winds will increase out of the WSW after 15z
across all terminals and will remain around 10 kts through the
afternoon. Areas of smoke will continue to be possible throughout
the day near KFXE and KFLL due to the ongoing wildfire in the
Everglades. Scattered showers and storms will be possible near the
terminals this afternoon resulting in brief periods of MVFR or IFR
if storms develop over a terminal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Moderate SW winds expected across the local waters today becoming
gentle southerly winds on Friday. Increasing swell and seas
associated with Erin will continue in the Atlantic waters with seas
of 6-8 ft in the near and offshore Palm Beach waters and 3-5 ft over
the rest of the Atlantic waters off Miami-Dade and Broward. Seas
settle slightly on Friday to 4-6 ft off Palm Beach and 2-4 ft off
Broward and Miami-Dade. Gulf waters will remain 2 ft or less through
the end of the week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Increasing swell from Erin is expected to impact the northern
portions of the Atlantic marine areas through the end of the week.
This will result in an increasing rip current threat for the
Atlantic beaches and high surf concerns for Palm Beach county with
waves up to 7 ft in the surf zone. There is a high risk for rip
currents across all South Florida beaches through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            94  79  94  78 /  50  20  60  30
West Kendall     94  77  94  76 /  50  10  60  20
Opa-Locka        95  79  96  78 /  50  20  60  30
Homestead        93  78  93  77 /  40  10  50  20
Fort Lauderdale  94  79  93  78 /  40  20  70  30
N Ft Lauderdale  94  79  93  79 /  50  20  70  30
Pembroke Pines   96  79  97  79 /  50  20  60  30
West Palm Beach  96  77  94  77 /  50  30  70  30
Boca Raton       96  78  96  77 /  40  30  70  30
Naples           91  80  93  80 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for FLZ168-172-
     173.

     High Surf Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CWC