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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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082 FXUS62 KMFL 301407 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1007 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 950 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Plenty of deep tropical moisture continues to filter into South Florida this morning as a weak mid level disturbance approaches the region. The 12Z KMFL sounding showed PWAT values of 2.31 inches and this has allowed for showers and thunderstorms to develop especially across the eastern half of the region this morning. While 500mb temperatures are a bit cooler today compared to previous days (around -7C), mid level lapse rates still remain rather poor (5.2-5.7C/km). This will help to keep the chances of strong thunderstorm development rather limited. However, heading towards peak diurnal heating, instability will increase and CAPE values could range between 2500 and 3500 J/kg over portions of Southwest Florida this afternoon. This could be supportive of an isolated strong thunderstorm or two with some stronger wind gusts especially over the interior sections this afternoon. With steering flow remaining light, storm motions will remain slow. This, combined with the potential for heavy downpours will result in the possibility of localized flooding especially over the east and west coast. High temperatures today will generally remain in the upper 80s to around 90 across most areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 An unsettled pattern to close out the weekend as a mid-level disturbance moves across the southern peninsula of Florida today into Monday. Abundant tropical moisture will enable more coverage of convective activity during today into tonight compared to previous days. The additional cloud cover will help keep temperatures a few degrees cooler today with many areas only reaching the upper 80s though some pockets of around 90 are possible, mainly in Southwest Florida. Accordingly, heat index values should remain below Heat Advisory thresholds today across South Florida. Hydration and cooling breaks are still a good idea, particularly for anyone spending long periods of time outdoors today. Repeated rounds of showers and storms could bring a localized flooding threat with a focus possible over Southwest Florida this afternoon. Strong wind gusts and frequent to excessive lightning are also concerns on this Sunday. A lull in convection is possible tonight but coastal activity could linger over the local waters through the night which could keep the flood threat in play for any areas that see repeated rounds of rainfall earlier in the day. Monday will again be warm and unsettled but the winds becoming more south-southeasterly will help focus afternoon convection from just inland of the Atlantic into Southwest Florida with a focus along the State Road 80 corridor/Lake Okeechobee possible by late afternoon/early evening on Monday. Upper 80s to lower 90s for high temperatures continues though heat index values climb back above 100 across most of the area. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 A trough over the eastern United States will help keep an unsettled pattern over much of Florida to kick off the work week and that will linger into mid-week before the trough deamplifies as it slides east into the Atlantic. Abundant tropical moisture will remain over the region as large-scale high pressure builds in over Florida on the surface and the southeastern United States aloft. Beryl is forecast to remain south of the area thanks to this high pressure pattern as it moves westerly to west-northwesterly this week. This will mean that diurnally-driven sea breeze showers and thunderstorms will be the main story through the week along with continued warmth. Heat index values will quietly creep back up through the week with the potential for Heat Advisories returning. Easterly flow will favor morning convection around the Atlantic moving inland and focused over the interior and Southwest Florida by the afternoon and early evening hours each day. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 734 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop around the east coast terminals through the morning and into the early afternoon hours as winds increase out of the east. Gusty and erratic winds along with sub-VFR conditions are possible in and around showers and storms. These storms will slowly push towards the interior and west coast later this afternoon into this evening. Winds will also shift to the WSW at KAPF this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Short fused AMDs will be likely throughout the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will remain in place across the local waters through the weekend. This flow may turn more southeasterly heading into the middle portion of the week. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through early this week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the local waters during this time frame. Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 88 77 89 79 / 70 50 70 50 West Kendall 89 75 89 77 / 80 40 70 40 Opa-Locka 89 77 90 78 / 70 40 70 50 Homestead 88 77 89 79 / 70 50 60 50 Fort Lauderdale 87 78 88 80 / 70 40 60 50 N Ft Lauderdale 88 78 89 80 / 70 40 60 50 Pembroke Pines 90 77 92 79 / 70 40 60 50 West Palm Beach 88 77 90 79 / 70 30 60 40 Boca Raton 89 78 90 80 / 70 40 60 50 Naples 90 75 89 78 / 80 30 70 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAG LONG TERM....RAG AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC