420
FXUS62 KMFL 162320 AAB
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
720 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...HEAT INDEX READINGS 98 TO 102 SATURDAY...
...HEAT INDEX READINGS 98 TO 105 SUNDAY...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 713 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

High pressure will continue to build into the Florida Peninsula
tonight into Friday. This will keep the dry weather over South
Florida along with hot temperatures on Saturday Lows tonight
should fall into the upper 60s to near 70 over the interior areas
to lower to mid 70s over the metro areas. Highs on Saturday will
be around 90 over the metro areas to mid 90s over the interior
areas. Heat indices will be around 100 over the metro areas to
lower 100s over the interior areas.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

It may be the start of the climatological wet season in South FL,
but it`s not going to look that way heading into this weekend. Upper
level ridging and surface high pressure will dominate resulting in
warm and dry conditions persisting. Temperatures will be several
degrees above normal with highs ranging from the upper 80s near the
coasts to middle 90s over interior SW FL. Dewpoints in the upper 60s
to lower 70s will result in max heat indices in the mid to upper 90s
across the east coast metro, and around 100 over the interior.
Little relief is expected overnight with lows ranging from the upper
60s over the interior, to middle 70s closer to the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Stout deep-layer ridging and anhydrous weather will prevail across
South Florida through the weekend and into much of the upcoming work
week. The atmospheric column will remain quite dry during this
period as dry air rotates anticyclonically around the surface ridge
axis situated across the western Atlantic waters. NASA`s/GMAO Dust
Aerosol Optical Thickness model even hints at the periphery of a
saharan dust plume arriving across South Florida during the early to
middle portion of next week. However, the main implication of stout
ridging directly overhead will be very light mid to upper level flow
aloft. The lack of synoptic forcing will default prevailing weather
to mesoscale processes such as the diurnal sea-breeze circulations
each afternoon. Given the lack of cloud cover and subsidence aloft,
temperatures will be on the toasty side with values several degrees
above average across the area. Across inland locales, afternoon
temperatures will peak into the mid to upper 90s each with
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s across coastal locations.
The foci of hottest afternoon temperatures may pivot during the work
week, switching from southwest florida to southeastern florida as
surface flow veers ahead of a weak boundary during the mid to late
week period. There won`t be much respite overnight as temperatures
along the coast will still remain on the warmer side with lows in
the middle to upper 70s along the east coast of South Florida.

With a lack of cloud cover and surface humidity, apparent
temperatures (feels-like temperatures) will reach 100-105 degrees
each afternoon. While just below lower bounds of heat advisory
thresholds, prolonged exposure outdoors could impact vulnerable
individuals. Sheltered areas exposed to these temperatures without
climate control (parked cars) could become deadly for children and
pets. Always look before you lock!

By mid week, a mid-level trough propagating across the Ohio River
Valley and Great Lakes region will drag an attendant surface low and
boundary eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United
States. This boundary is then forecast to arrive across our region,
bringing a deeper pool of low-level boundary moisture. This extra
moisture could provide enough instability to spark up higher rain
chances during this period. However, as discussed in the previous
area forecast discussion, uncertainty remains regarding the
evolution of this boundary as well as if any upper level synoptic
support (current models show the base of the "parent" mid-level
trough remaining well to the north) will be in tandem with this
feature.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Winds will be light and variable tonight along with dry and VFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Benign marine conditions persist through the upcoming weekend, with
light winds and seas 2 ft or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  92  76  90 /   0   0   0  10
West Kendall     73  93  74  92 /   0   0   0  10
Opa-Locka        75  92  76  92 /   0   0   0  10
Homestead        75  92  75  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  76  90  76  88 /   0   0   0  10
N Ft Lauderdale  75  91  76  90 /   0   0   0  10
Pembroke Pines   75  92  78  95 /   0   0   0  10
West Palm Beach  74  92  74  91 /   0   0   0  10
Boca Raton       74  91  75  92 /   0   0   0  10
Naples           74  89  74  90 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...BNB