597
FXUS62 KMFL 060527
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
127 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

...New AVIATION...


.UPDATE...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Early afternoon showers and thunderstorms developed along the
southeast coastal areas and slowly drifted inland. As of 245 pm,
several outflows could be seen on radar and their collisions could
generate additional activity through late afternoon across the
interior.

Weak pressure over the area will keep the light wind flow with a
general east component which will push most of the activity towards
the west. Wednesday`s forecast will be similar to today with
initiation of storms over the Atlantic waters and moving inland by
late morning.

High temperatures for Wednesday should be a few degrees cooler
than today, dropping heat indexes by a few degrees as well. No
other changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Model consensus remains fairly good regarding the synoptic pattern
for the short term. A decaying sfc frontal boundary will linger
around the Florida panhandle area, drifting a little southward at
times. Meanwhile, U/L ridging across central Florida will begin
eroding today and through Wed as an area of disturbed weather over
the west Atlantic approaches the SE CONUS. But the ridging should
linger long enough to help keeping hot and humid conditions across
SoFlo during the short term.

The overall synoptic flow is looking more weak with each model run,
with possible periods of light and variable winds even during the
afternoon hours. This should provide an ideal scenario for afternoon
sea breezes to dominate convective activity, and combine with
moisture advection to generate another round of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms. Highest POPs over the interior and west
areas of SoFlo will again be in the 70 percent range, along with
latest model soundings showing possible PWATs of 2+ inches each
day. High-res solutions suggest that the east coast sea breeze
may again dominate, placing the highest POps again over interior-
west areas. And just like yesterday, there may be a few late
morning showers/storms around the Atlantic coast, then pushing
inland with the sea breeze. Main hazards will be frequent
lightning strikes, damaging wind gusts, and increased potential
for large hail.

High temperatures in general will be a little warmer today with much
of Solo in the mid 90s, and some interior-western areas in the upper
90s. Therefore, the hot and muggy conditions will result in heat
index values in the 105-110 range this afternoon. Those areas with
the highest temps may even reach up to 112 HIs. A heat advisory will
be in effect today from 11am to 7pm for all of SoFlo.

Expect nighttime lows in the mid-upper 70s inland, and in the low
80s closer to the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Model ensembles and long range globals show a low developing near
the SE Atlantic coast for the later part of the work week, with
latest NHC forecast giving a 30 percent chance of developing into a
tropical system during that time. And although it is not expected to
become a threat to our area, it may combine with a mid lvl wave
feature to leave enough trailing moisture and enhance POPs through
the weekend.

The bulk of convective activity is again expected during the
afternoon hours and into the early evening hours each day. POPs/Wx
coverage should steadily increase with 60-80 percent chances each
afternoon, even up to 90 percent possible in some locations Thu and
Fri. Model PWATs of 2 inches or higher may result in localized heavy
showers, especially with slow-moving thunderstorms. Main hazards
will again be frequent lightning strikes, damaging wind gusts, and
increased potential for large hail.

Expect afternoon high temp values in the low 90s near the coasts,
and mid-upper 90s for inland and western areas. Nighttime lows
should remain in the mid 70s inland to around 80 near the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

VFR returning to APF after a overnight thunderstorm brought brief
IFR conditions, but VCSH will linger for a while. VFR will
continue through around 15-16Z, then SHRA/TSRA expected on
Wednesday starting in the late morning into the afternoon hours.
APF will likely experience MVFR/IFR periods with strong
thunderstorms through around 00Z. Winds will remain light to
moderate from the east, except for westerly flow in the afternoon
over APF due to Gulf breezes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Winds will shift southeasterly-easterly today but remain light to
moderate. Only exception will be with Gulf breezes bringing a
shift to west-southwesterly flow winds over the west coast each
afternoon. Seas should remain around 1-2 ft, except around
thunderstorms, which could produce brief periods of rough seas and
gusty winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Rip current risk will remain moderate across the West Palm Beach
coastal waters for the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  80  90  80 /  60  30  60  40
West Kendall     92  77  90  77 /  70  30  70  40
Opa-Locka        94  79  93  79 /  60  30  60  40
Homestead        92  79  90  79 /  60  40  60  40
Fort Lauderdale  91  79  90  79 /  60  30  60  40
N Ft Lauderdale  92  80  91  80 /  60  30  60  40
Pembroke Pines   95  80  94  81 /  60  30  60  40
West Palm Beach  92  79  91  78 /  60  30  60  30
Boca Raton       94  79  93  78 /  60  30  60  40
Naples           95  78  93  78 /  80  50  80  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17