483
FXUS62 KMFL 061059
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
659 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Today will feature a slow transition in the weather pattern across
the region as a broad and disorganized mid level low pushes to the
northwest of the region in response to mid level ridging starting to
push towards South Florida from the western Atlantic. At the
surface, Tropical Storm Chantal will continue to slowly push
northwards into the Carolinas as it weakens while the surface trough
that has been draped over Northern and Central Florida slowly
pushes northward as well. This will allow for a south to
southwesterly wind flow to continue at the surface which will
continue to create moisture pooling over the area. However, the mid
level flow will gradually turn more southerly over the area as mid
level ridging starts to build in. This shift in steering flow as the
mid level ridge builds in could also introduce just a bit more drier
air into the mid levels when compared to the past several days. With
the south to southwesterly lower level wind flow in place, there
will still be plenty of lower level moisture to fire off convection
especially from the mid morning hours heading into the afternoon
hours as PWAT values will still generally range between 1.8 and 2.1
inches. Convection will generally move from south to north and the
stronger convection will have a tendency to focus over the Lake
Okeechobee region as well as Palm Beach County this afternoon where
sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries collide. While chances of
strong to severe thunderstorms will remain limited, the introduction
of some slightly drier air aloft could increase the DCAPE values a
bit (Up to around 700-850 J/kg) and produce some gusty winds in the
strongest storms. With PWATS remaining high throughout most of the
region today, any thunderstorm will be capable of producing heavy
downpours with high rainfall rates. High temperatures this afternoon
will generally rise into the lower 90s across most areas. Heat index
values will once again range between 100 and 105 across most areas
heading into the late morning and afternoon hours.

Mid level ridging strengthens on Monday as it pushes westward over
the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, high pressure centered over
the western Atlantic will also continue to extend over the region as
the day progresses. This will result in rather light winds across
the region throughout the day and the general wind flow will be
driven by the sea breezes as they gradually push inland. The mid
level steering flow will be weak, however, it will take on a
southeasterly direction as ridging builds into the region. This will
slowly focus the convection towards the interior as the day
progresses. With a relative lack of mid to upper level support,
strong to severe thunderstorm chances will be limited, however,
there will be enough instability in place to support the possibility
of a few strong storms where sea breeze and other thunderstorm
outflow boundaries collide over the interior. The strongest
thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy
downpours. High temperatures on Monday will generally rise to around
90 along the east coast, and into the lower to mid 90s across the
interior as well as Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The weather pattern during the Tuesday through Thursday time frame
is starting to show signs of becoming more active again as the
latest model guidance suite continues to show signs of a Tropical
Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) approaching and slowly moving
across South Florida during this time frame. At the surface, South
Florida will remain on the western edge of an area of high pressure
centered in the western Atlantic. With the position of the surface
ridge axis remaining draped near the region, this will allow for a
light synoptic east to southeasterly wind flow to remain in place
during this time frame. The TUTT will help to bring an extra source
of lift and instability to the region starting on Tuesday as mid
level temperatures start to drop. While the exact details still need
to be ironed out, with 500mb temperatures potentially dropping to -8
to -9C across portions of the region, this could create the
potential for some of the convection to become strong to marginally
severe during peak diurnal heating hours each afternoon through
Thursday. The convective pattern will still follow the usual diurnal
summertime cycle with showers and thunderstorms initiating over the
local waters and east coast during the morning hours before shifting
towards the interior and west coast during the afternoon and early
evening hours. The best chances for strong to marginally severe
thunderstorm development will remain over the interior and west
coast each afternoon Tuesday through Thursday where sea breeze and
other mesoscale boundaries collide. This will continue to be
monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures on Tuesday
through Thursday will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

For the end of the week, the latest guidance suite is showing signs
that the TUTT will eventually weaken during this time frame as mid
level ridging tries to build back into the region. However,
uncertainty during this time period is high as the guidance remains
in disagreement as to how much of that mid level ridge actually
builds into the region or if a general weakness in the ridge holds
in place over the area. If the ridge builds in stronger, this may
allow for chances of showers and thunderstorms to decrease a little
bit heading into the end of the week and into the first part of the
weekend. However, if the weakness holds in place, chances of showers
and thunderstorms could remain elevated. In any event, with surface
high pressure remaining parked over the region and southeasterly
wind flow in place, the general summertime convective pattern will
hold strong with the highest chances of showers and storms focusing
over the interior and west coast during the afternoon and evening
hours. High temperatures for the end of the week will remain around
climatological normals as they will range from the upper 80s to
lower 90s across most areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Light and variable winds early this morning will increase out of
the SSW after 15z. These winds may become SSE for a period of time
along the east coast terminals this afternoon as the sea breeze
develops. Showers and storms will develop later this morning and
could affect the east coast terminals during the late morning into
the mid afternoon hours. Periods of MVFR or IFR will be possible
during this time frame along with variable and gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 136 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A moderate south to southwesterly wind flow will remain in place
across the local waters today. These winds will then diminish
tonight and become gentle across all local waters heading into
Monday and Tuesday. While these winds will generally remain
southeasterly across the Atlantic waters early next week, they may
become more west to southwesterly each afternoon across the Gulf
waters as the Gulf breeze develops. Seas across the Atlantic waters
will range from 2 to 3 feet today and tonight before gradually
diminishing to 2 feet or less as Monday progresses. Seas across the
Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the rest of the
weekend and into early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day
through the early portion of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  78  91  79 /  50  10  40  10
West Kendall     91  75  91  75 /  40  10  40  10
Opa-Locka        92  78  93  79 /  50  10  40  10
Homestead        91  78  91  78 /  30  10  40  10
Fort Lauderdale  90  78  90  79 /  50  20  40  20
N Ft Lauderdale  91  78  91  79 /  60  20  40  20
Pembroke Pines   93  81  94  80 /  50  20  40  20
West Palm Beach  91  76  90  77 /  70  30  40  20
Boca Raton       93  77  92  78 /  60  30  40  20
Naples           90  78  91  76 /  50  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Rizzuto