425
FXUS62 KMFL 071058
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
658 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

High pressure surface and aloft ridging east/west across South
Florida will continue through the weekend, acting as a stabilizing
factor which is expected to cut down on the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. A narrow plume of Saharan dust trapped in the weak
flow around the ridge will persist over South Florida, adding to the
stability and drier air in the 850-500 mb layer. PoPs from the NBM
have been running a bit too high the past couple of days given the
aforementioned suppressing environment, and this appears to be
the case again for both today and Sunday. As a result, we`re
cutting PoPs down to 20-30% both afternoons, focused over the
interior of the peninsula. Sunday may see a slightly more
favorable environment for a couple more showers/thunderstorms due
to an upper level trough across the SE U.S. weakening the ridge
ever so slightly.

With the relative lack of precipitation, temperatures this weekend
will be quite warm during the afternoons. Highs both days will reach
or exceed 90F almost everywhere, and as high as the mid 90s over the
interior. Even with dewpoints not running excessively high for June,
heat index values are still expected to be in the 100-105F range
over most locations. Therefore, persons are urged to take actions to
keep hydrated and avoid prolonged exposure to the outdoors.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

The ridge will persist into Monday but start to slowly lose it`s
grip on South Florida. A northward nudge in the low level ridge will
lead to a better-defined SE wind flow and introduce slightly higher
moisture which will mark the beginning an upward trend in rain
chances next week. Starting Tuesday, the western Atlantic
subtropical high is forecast by a consensus of the models to expand
northward and result in an increased low/mid level SE wind flow
across Florida. This should also dislodge the Saharan dust northward
over the northern half of the Florida peninsula. PoPs for Tuesday
through Thursday pick back up to the 50-70% range, highest over the
western interior sections and exhibiting a diurnal tendency for
afternoon/evening in the interior and western areas, and night and
morning for eastern areas including metro SE Florida. Models are
suggesting some drier air trying to come back to the area by the end
of next week in increasing easterly deep layer flow, but the timing
and magnitude of this drier air is still very much in question, so
for now we`re showing only a slight PoP decrease for Friday.

Temperatures will begin next week on the hot side with 90s most
areas, then as clouds and precipitation coverage increases starting
Tuesday, highs decrease into the upper 80s-lower 90s for most of the
remainder of next week. With higher dewpoints, however, daytime heat
index values should still peak near 100F over many areas in between
periods of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Mainly VFR through the 12Z TAF period. Light and variable winds
this morning becoming SE around 10 kts this afternoon into early
evening, except APF which will have a westerly Gulf breeze this
afternoon. Widely scattered thunderstorms possible late in the day
mainly over interior South FL.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 126 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Good boating conditions will last through the weekend as the high
pressure ridge over South Florida keeps winds 10 knots or less
except near both coasts in the afternoon when the sea breeze will
increase winds to near 15 knots at times. SE winds increase slightly
next week as the ridge expands north, but still should not exceed 15
knots. Showers and thunderstorms will remain at a minimum over the
Atlantic and Gulf waters this weekend, then increase beginning
Monday and more so Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 126 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Beach conditions are also expected to be good this weekend as
precipitation should stay inland and winds remain light enough to
preclude any notable rip current formation. The rip current risk may
increase some by the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  77  90  79 /  20  10  20  10
West Kendall     92  74  92  76 /  20  10  20  10
Opa-Locka        93  77  92  79 /  20  10  20  10
Homestead        90  76  90  78 /  10  10  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  89  77  89  78 /  20  10  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  90  77  90  78 /  20  10  20  10
Pembroke Pines   94  79  94  80 /  20  10  20  10
West Palm Beach  91  76  91  77 /  20  10  20  10
Boca Raton       91  76  91  77 /  20  10  20  10
Naples           90  76  90  76 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Molleda
LONG TERM....Molleda
AVIATION...CMF