545
FXUS62 KMFL 101103
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
603 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 238 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

The overall synoptic scale pattern highlights a deepening and
positively tilted mid-level trough that extends across the
entirety of the north-south CONUS in the central part of the
country, which is also helping to amplify a mid-level ridge
and associated surface high pressure across the Eastern Seaboard.
Surface low pressure will begin to form over the Gulf of Mexico
as the longwave trough pushes eastward while the surface high
under the aforementioned ridge also shifts east and strengthens
over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions. The result of this
set up will cause winds in the South Florida region to veer
easterly and eventually southerly today across South Florida and
essentially cut off the cold air advection regime at that point.
However, one last morning of chilly temperatures will occur as
skies will remain mostly clear and the pressure gradient weakens.
Lowest temperatures early this morning are expected to bottom out
in the lower 40s west of Lake Okeechobee to the mid to upper 40s
across the rest of Southwest Florida and the interior sections.
Temperatures along the east coast will fall into the lower 50s as
some warm air advection may start to take place along the
immediate coast. High temperatures today will rise back into the
70s across the region.

Heading into Friday night and Saturday, the positively tilted mid-
level trough and surface low pressure will continue to advect
eastward, but will take a slight track to the northeast across the
Florida Panhandle and Carolinas as a strong ridge of high pressure
located over the Caribbean that stretches north over the Florida
Peninsula blocks its progression southward. As the trough and
surface low track this way and eventually swing across the eastern
US, winds will increase out of a southerly direction and allow for
moisture advection to increase over South Florida Friday night and
Saturday morning. As this occurs and the trough`s parent cold
front drags south, there will be chances for a few showers across
the region Saturday morning and afternoon. Convection from this
FROPA is not expected to produce impactful rainfall due to the
positive tilt and sheared nature of the trough, plus the front is
likely to slow and not fully push the moisture out of the area.
Overall, after the cold front pushes southward by Saturday
afternoon and evening, drier and cooler conditions should return
once again behind it. Nevertheless, the elevated moisture and
cooler air could lead to increased cloudiness and not allow for
large temperature variations beyond this time frame. Low
temperatures Saturday morning will range from the upper 50s near
Lake Okeechobee to the low to mid 60s closer to the coasts. High
temperatures Saturday will rise into the mid to upper 70s across
SW Florida and upper 70s to low 80s for SE Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 238 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

After the weakening cold front washes out on Saturday, the pattern
will stay more stable on Sunday with only lingering moisture
leading to increased levels of cloudiness. As we head into next
week, there continues to be disagreement in long range model
guidance and ensembles in regards to the evolution of the frontal
boundary and how far south it actually pushes. Additionally, a
weaker area of low pressure looks to develop over the Gulf of
Mexico in the early week period. This combination could lead to
increased cloudiness in the early to mid-week period next week and
also potentially lead to a few extra light rain showers over
portions of the area.

Looking at the guidance as a whole, some models push this front
through the area much faster by Monday night and Tuesday due to
surface high pressure strengthening while other guidance suggests
it won`t push through until mid-week due to the disturbance over
the Gulf. However, the brunt of the suite is trending in the
direction of having the boundary stall and lead to increased
cloudiness with chances for a few rain showers at times for the
first half of next week plus smaller temperature variations in the
daily highs and lows. There is still plenty of time for this
trend to change, but for now the latest forecast highlights the
increased cloudiness with chances for showers and temperature
fluctuations being lower which would avoid cold weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light and
variable winds overnight will increase out of the southeast and
will range between 10 and 15 kts later this morning into the
afternoon. Gusts of 20 to 25 kts will be possible during the
afternoon hours. Periodic MVFR ceilings possible Saturday morning
and afternoon as a front passes through

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

Winds and seas will begin to subside for a period of time today
before a disturbance forms off the coast of the Carolinas and
causes an increase in winds again, this time out of the south-
southwest Friday night into Saturday. Eventually, a cold front
will push south towards the area over the weekend. This could lead
to more hazardous conditions across the Atlantic waters in
particular heading into the weekend after a brief period of calmer
conditions on Friday. Lingering seas at 5-7 feet in the northern
Atlantic waters will subside to mostly 3-5 feet through the day
today. Gulf seas will be at 2-4 feet.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 238 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

There will be a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic
Coast beaches through Saturday. This risk may remain elevated
through the second half of the weekend and into early next week
especially across the Palm Beaches as a northerly swell lingers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  64  81  60 /   0   0  20   0
West Kendall     74  61  81  57 /   0   0  20   0
Opa-Locka        75  63  81  58 /   0   0  20   0
Homestead        74  63  80  59 /   0   0  20   0
Fort Lauderdale  72  64  80  58 /   0   0  20   0
N Ft Lauderdale  72  64  80  58 /   0   0  20   0
Pembroke Pines   75  64  82  58 /   0   0  20   0
West Palm Beach  72  62  78  56 /   0   0  20   0
Boca Raton       73  64  79  56 /   0   0  30   0
Naples           73  63  73  54 /   0   0  30   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Rizzuto