508
FXUS62 KMFL 010640
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
240 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Monday will be warm and unsettled as a mid-level trough lingers over
the region. Aloft, an upper-level low could also move in from the
Bahamas which could provide some additional support for more stout
convection. At the surface, South Florida remains on the periphery
of Atlantic high pressure with the ridge axis sitting around Lake
Okeechobee. The wind becoming more south-southeasterly will help
focus afternoon convection from just inland of the Atlantic into
Southwest Florida with a focus along the State Road 80 corridor/Lake
Okeechobee possible by late afternoon/early evening on Monday. A
south to north or southeast to northwest movement of convective
focus is likely through the day. Upper 80s to lower 90s for high
temperatures continues though heat index values climb back above 100
across most of the area.

Mid-level high pressure begins to slide east from the southern
plains towards the southeastern United States on Tuesday. The high
will not build all the way into southern Florida, therefore allowing
the unsettled, diurnally-driven storm pattern to continue for
another day with a southeasterly wind flow. Temperatures will build
a few degrees compared to Monday with heat index values rising
accordingly to where a Heat Advisory cannot be ruled out for
portions of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Abundant tropical moisture will remain over the region as large-
scale high pressure builds in over Florida on the surface and the
southeastern United States aloft. Hurricane Beryl is forecast to
remain south of the area thanks to this high pressure pattern as it
moves westerly to west-northwesterly this week. This will mean that
diurnally-driven sea breeze showers and thunderstorms will be the
main story through the week along with continued warmth. Heat index
values will quietly creep back up through the week with the
potential for Heat Advisories returning. Easterly to southeasterly
wind flow will favor morning convection around the Atlantic moving
inland and focused over the interior and Southwest Florida by the
afternoon and early evening hours each day.

Forecast uncertainty increases near the end of the period where
bursts of tropical moisture will need to be monitored as easterly
activity progresses across the Atlantic basin. The National
Hurricane Center`s Tropical Weather Outlook (TWOAT) does depict an
area of disturbed weather behind Beryl that they are monitoring for
potential tropical development over the week. It is too early to
time or determine the extent of the tropical moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Mostly VFR conditions prevail through the TAF cycle. Light/vrb
winds will gradually become ESE around 5-10 kt, though Gulf sea
breeze may cause a brief WSW wind shift near/over APF. Greatest
convective coverage generally expected over interior and west
coast today, where short-fused TEMPOs may be necessary.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will gradually become
southeasterly over the Atlantic waters during the early portion of
the week. Over the Gulf waters, winds will become south to
southwesterly during this time frame. Seas over the Atlantic and
Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less during the early portion
of the week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
develop each day across the local waters. Winds and seas could be
locally higher in and around showers and storms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The risk of rip currents may increase across the Atlantic beaches
towards the middle of the week as onshore flow increases. Swell from
any potential surface low pressure areas that develop in the open
northern Atlantic near a mid-level trough will also need to be
monitored in case it materializes and could increase the rip current
risk later in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  80  91  80 /  60  40  70  30
West Kendall     90  77  91  78 /  70  30  70  30
Opa-Locka        91  79  91  80 /  60  30  70  30
Homestead        89  80  90  81 /  60  30  70  30
Fort Lauderdale  89  80  89  81 /  60  40  70  30
N Ft Lauderdale  89  80  90  81 /  60  30  70  30
Pembroke Pines   91  80  93  81 /  60  30  70  30
West Palm Beach  91  78  91  80 /  70  30  70  30
Boca Raton       91  80  91  80 /  60  30  70  30
Naples           89  78  91  78 /  80  30  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...SRB