845
FXUS62 KMFL 091822
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
222 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Sunday will close out with a transitioning pattern as an area of low
pressure moves across the southern tier of the United States. The
wind flow at the surface will be lighter tonight but will increase
out of the southwest through the morning on Monday as the low
progresses eastward across Alabama and Georgia and the front
traverses the Gulf. This enhanced mixing could help keep fog
development chances a bit lower than on previous mornings.

Along with the low pressure, a healthy low level jet feature will
move east into the peninsula of Florida through the day on Monday
with some enhancement potential coincident with the convective
activity ahead and along the front moving across the state. The
upper level jet also may have a split flow exiting the state around
that time late morning into the early evening hours which could help
provide a healthy upper level outflow support for any stout
convection which may try to form.

Frontal timing is still quite spread out with some solutions
favoring a late morning to midday earlier arrival while a large body
of solutions have a midday to late afternoon arrival for the frontal
boundary and antecedent convection. This forecast is going closer to
middle-of-the-road though guidance at times does display this kind
of spread this many hours out in time that eventually resolves
within 6-12 hours of the event. A later timing for convection will
allow for portions of the east coast to warm up which could
potentially trigger an Atlantic sea breeze to develop and advance
inland a bit. This could provide some localized wind shear that any
stout convection could tap into.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, the low pressure and frontal
boundary will continue to pull further into the western Atlantic and
bring the lingering rain way from South Florida. Mid-level ridging,
with high pressure at the surface, will build into the region
bringing the return of drier conditions for the remainder of the
week. The northerly wind flow will gradually subside throughout the
day Tuesday, before veering and becoming easterly by Wednesday. With
the northerly winds on Tuesday, temperatures will rapidly cool with
high temperatures trending 10 degrees cooler than prior to the front
on Monday. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid to upper
70s, with lows dropping into the upper 40s to mid 50s, on Tuesday.
With the drier air, minimum humidity values have the potential to
drop into upper 30s to low 40 percentages across the region on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Pressure gradients look weak, which should
help keep sustained wind speeds low enough to prevent fire weather
conditions.

The winds will continue to veer, but remain primarily E/SE, and
ushering in the warmer, Caribbean air for the remainder of the week.
From mid-week and beyond, temperatures will warm by a few degrees
each day and reach near normal, or slightly above. With the influx
of southerly warm air, high temperatures have the potential to reach
widespread mid to upper 80s degrees by the end of the week and
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Overnight, wind will lighten some before picking up out of the
southwest ahead of an approaching cold front Monday. Increasing
shower chances through the morning/early afternoon with some
thunderstorm chances emerging by afternoon/early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Conditions will become hazardous on Monday across as a cold front
approaches and moves through the region. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday as the front
pushes through the region. Southwesterly winds will become fresh to
strong early on Monday before gradually shifting and becoming west
northwest later on Monday into Tuesday behind the front. Seas across
the Atlantic and Gulf will rapidly increase behind the front on
Monday night and will build to 5 to 7 feet across the Gulf by
Tuesday morning and 8 to 10 feet across the Atlantic throughout
Tuesday. Conditions will slowly improve across the Gulf waters
throughout the day on Tuesday, however, hazardous marine conditions
will linger across the Atlantic waters through early Wednesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

The rip current risk will rise across all South Florida beaches
early this week as winds and seas increase behind a cold front that
will push through the region on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            70  87  58  77 /  10  40  10   0
West Kendall     66  87  55  79 /  10  40  10   0
Opa-Locka        69  87  56  78 /  10  40  10   0
Homestead        68  85  57  78 /  10  40  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  68  86  57  76 /  10  50  20   0
N Ft Lauderdale  68  87  57  77 /  10  50  20   0
Pembroke Pines   70  89  58  79 /  10  50  10   0
West Palm Beach  67  87  56  75 /   0  60  10   0
Boca Raton       67  87  56  76 /  10  50  20   0
Naples           68  78  57  74 /  10  60  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...RAG