101
FXUS62 KMFL 011800
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1211 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

A remnant surface boundary continues to linger over northern and
central portions of Florida. Atlantic high pressure continues to
hold over southern portions of the peninsula accompanied by a
relatively drier airmass. Portions of Southwest Florida remain in a
pocket of higher moisture associated with the boundary which will
not only enable high shower and thunderstorm chances today but also
allow heat index values to remain in the 100 to 105 degree range
this afternoon. The east coast sea breeze is pushing inland early
this afternoon where a few isolated showers have developed across
portions of the western suburbs of Miami Dade. As this boundary
continues to push inland, activity should cease over the metro
areas and will become more numerous across the Everglades. A
similar evolution is expected for Wednesday as easterly flow
remains in place.

A mid-level trough will move across the southeastern United States
tonight into Wednesday which will drag the front but the high
pressure holds over the area which keeps the boundary from moving
into southern Florida. High temperatures will reach the lower 90s
but the lower dewpoints should allow the heat index values to remain
below heat advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Models depict deep high pressure developing over the western
Atlantic, which will expand into the Atlantic seaboard and the
Florida peninsula to start the long term. The southern periphery of
the ridge will keep prevailing easterly to east-northeast flow
across SoFlo through the forecast period.

Meanwhile, abundant lingering moisture over the western Caribbean
and central GOMEX may at times drift into the peninsula with passing
disturbances. For Thursday and Friday, the moisture intrusions and
the easterly regime will result in higher chances for showers and
thunderstorms over the western half of SoFlo each afternoon.

For the weekend, the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor
the progress of a large area of disturbed weather, which the models
suggest potential for tropical development during those days. This
would advect even more moisture into the E GOMEX and the Florida
peninsula, with widespread POPS increasing into the 60 percent
range. Also, models develop a deepening trough over the E CONUS,
which may provide additional mid level support for stronger
thunderstorms across the region. Therefore, a rainy pattern is
likely to prevail for the weekend and into early next week.

In terms of temperatures, the increase in cloud cover and shower
activity should help in keeping temperatures a little cooler, with
afternoon highs generally in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Generally VFR conditions continue through this TAF period. There
could be a couple of isolated showers near the east coast
terminals during this afternoon, although with the sea breeze
already pushing inland, most should remain well away from eastern
sites. Winds will be on the lighter side out of the SE around
5-10kts through the afternoon before becoming light and variable
overnight. Another chance for inland showers and storms on
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1211 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Benign boating conditions across the local waters as gentle
southeasterly to easterly winds persist through the middle of the
week. Seas generally 2 feet or less over both the the Atlantic and
Gulf waters. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible each day, and
may result in locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1211 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

An elevated rip current risk will continue along the Palm Beaches
through the middle of the week due to a lingering swell and light
onshore winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  91  77  89 /  10  20  10  40
West Kendall     74  92  75  90 /  10  20  10  40
Opa-Locka        77  92  77  91 /  10  20  10  40
Homestead        76  90  77  89 /  10  20  10  40
Fort Lauderdale  77  90  77  88 /  10  20  10  40
N Ft Lauderdale  77  90  78  89 /  10  20  10  40
Pembroke Pines   78  93  78  92 /  10  20  10  40
West Palm Beach  77  91  77  89 /  20  30  20  40
Boca Raton       76  91  77  90 /  10  20  20  40
Naples           76  90  76  91 /  30  30  10  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Rizzuto