553
FXUS62 KMFL 260636
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
236 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 234 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

 - A few isolated showers across Southeast Florida this afternoon,
   but mostly dry weather is expected.

 - Hazardous marine and beach conditions continue today and will
   linger into Sunday.

 - Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions
   of the Atlantic coast this weekend during high tide cycles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

In terms of wet season standards, a much quieter weather pattern has
set up for this weekend. An area of low pressure off the Mid-
Atlantic coast puts South Florida into a setup favoring dry air
advection, with moisture profiles expected to be in the lowest 10-
25% for this time of year with dew points falling into the mid to
upper 60s for most of the region. With South Florida on the
periphery of the trough axis and weaker high pressure over the Deep
South, we should see much drier than average conditions this
weekend. PoPs are no higher than 20-30%, and this is only along the
immediate east coast metro areas where NNW flow and a weak sea
breeze circulation could spark a few showers in the late afternoon
and early evening. Overall, drier and more tranquil weather will
prevail this weekend and will give a nice break from the lengthy wet
pattern we had been in.

High temperatures remain primarily in the upper 80s this weekend,
with areas near the lake potentially peaking in the mid 80s.
Overnight lows Saturday night range from the low to mid 60s near the
lake to the upper 60s and low 70s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

For early next week, the potent low pressure in the northeast US
will shift more northwards as a mid-to-upper level shortwave
trough pushes across the central US and deepens across the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeast US regions. As this trough swings through
the Florida Peninsula in the Monday to Tuesday time frame, low
level flow will shift back to a southerly to southwesterly
direction and result in the return of deeper tropical moisture
advection. With this increasing moisture returning and the
shortwave trough providing some upper level forcing for ascent,
rain chances will increase back to the 60-80% range by Tuesday and
into the middle of next week across South Florida. Steady
moisture advection is then expected to continue through the end of
the week.

For the end of the week, ensembles are hinting that the subtropical
high in the western Atlantic will re-build and expand further east,
resulting in a return to steady easterly flow. This setup favors
the highest rain chances over SW Florida (65-80%) with slightly
lower chances across SE Florida (50-60%) by Friday and into next
weekend. Essentially, this pattern suggests the most widespread
activity will be seen over SW Florida with more scattered activity
over the east coast metro areas.

High temperatures will rebound slightly through the period, with
highs each day reaching anywhere from the upper 80s to low 90s.
Overnight lows will be a few degrees cooler through Monday night
with the front clearing the area, with lows near the lake region in
the low to mid 60s and the rest of the region seeing lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s. By Tuesday night and beyond, overnight lows
will increase back into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR is expected for the period. NNW winds this morning will shift
to the NNE for the east coast terminals after 17-19Z and a few
isolated and weak SHRA are possible in the area in the late
afternoon and evening. At KAPF, winds shift to the further NW in
the afternoon. Light winds expected to return for the overnight
hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Hazardous conditions are expected to linger across the Atlantic
waters this weekend. Moderate northerly winds today will weaken more
on Sunday, but a northerly/northeasterly swell continues due to a
strong system in the northeast. Thus, seas are still expected to
reach 6-8 feet through Sunday morning. With these wave conditions,
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Sunday morning but
are expected to drop off after that as calmer conditions return
heading into next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

A high risk for rip currents continues for all Atlantic coast
beaches as an increasing northerly/northeasterly swell and brisk
northerly winds continue. In addition, the High Surf Advisory
remains in effect for the Palm Beaches for big breaking waves of up
to 7-8 feet today.

Furthermore, the King Tide Cycle this weekend is expected to result
in more periods of coastal flooding. Observations continue to out-
perform guidance by a decent margin and thus we could see minor to
moderate flooding. Based on today`s observations, there is a good
chance that Palm Beach and Broward coastlines reach moderate
flooding, while Miami-Dade should remain at minor. The Coastal Flood
Statement has been upgraded to a Coastal Flood Advisory for Palm
Beach and Broward, with the Coastal Flood Statement remaining in
place for Miami-Dade. Both of these products will run through Sunday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            87  72  86  72 /  30  20  10   0
West Kendall     88  70  87  71 /  20  20  10   0
Opa-Locka        88  71  87  71 /  20  10  10   0
Homestead        88  71  87  72 /  30  20  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  87  71  86  72 /  20  10   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  87  71  86  71 /  20  10   0   0
Pembroke Pines   87  70  86  70 /  20  10  10   0
West Palm Beach  86  70  86  70 /  20   0   0   0
Boca Raton       86  70  86  70 /  20  10   0   0
Naples           86  68  85  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-670.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ651-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Redman