685
FXUS62 KMFL 190717
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
317 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Models remain fairly consistent in keeping a mid level trough/low
complex over the SE CONUS through at least today, keeping a
generally unsettled pattern across SoFlo. 00Z MFL sounding data
and model PWATs show values back to around 2 inches, with plenty
of atmospheric moisture available for localized heavy showers to
develop later today. Meanwhile, pressure gradients across the area
remain weak, with sfc winds generally light and variable at
times. Therefore, expect afternoon sea breeze and outflow
boundaries to again become focal points for deeper convection,
with potential for strong to locally damaging wind gusts with the
strongest thunderstorms. Highest POPs remain around 70 percent,
including most of the Atlantic coast metro areas. The weak storm
motion can significantly contribute to localized heavy downpours,
which could result in localized flooding.

For Friday, ensembles and global model solutions show fair
agreement in pushing a frontal boundary across the peninsula and
down to SoFlo later in the day. The front seems to become
stationary either over the southern tip of the state, or pushing
into the Florida Keys late Friday afternoon. Regardless, it should
bring an initial decrease in moisture, with POPs on a modest
downward trend heading into the weekend.

Temperatures are expected to again reach the upper 80s lower 90s
this afternoon and again on Friday, even with the lingering cloud
cover and rain activity, along with heat index values in the low-
mid 100s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Moving into the upcoming weekend, the upper level trough will
continue to dig southward into the southeastern CONUS. It will
maintain a W/NW flow over the region aloft as the trough`s backside
moves over Florida`s Peninsula. Meanwhile, the plume of moisture
remains over South Florida as the stationary front meanders across
the southern peninsula. Most convection will be driven by the sea
breezes and outflow boundaries, following the afternoon`s diurnal
heating and influence of widespread heavy PWATs (1.7-1.9"). The
primary hazards will be heavy rainfall, strong winds, and localized
flooding, especially over urban areas. While PWATs have dropped
below 2.0", with plentiful moisture and saturated grounds, any slow-
moving storms may lead to flash flooding.

As we move into Sunday and early next week, an expansive ridge will
stretch across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida as the trough moves
into the Atlantic. As this occurs, it will allow for drier air to
advect into the region. Currently, the extended models indicate a
chance for showers, with a drop in PoPs (30-50%) and lower PWATs
(1.4-1.7"), due to this incoming drier air mass. However, further
into the extended, less confidence in the regional impact from rain,
so PoPs are capped at 60% through day 7. This may allow for a drop
below climatological rainfall normals early next week. Looking into
the extended forecast, we will continue to monitor the tropics. In
the upcoming days, the area to watch will be in the western
Caribbean as there is potential for a body of low pressure to form.
The National Hurricane Center`s 2AM outlook has a 40% chance of
tropical formation in the next 7 days. As it remains far too early
for many upcoming details, we will continue to keep an eye on the
latest tropical forecasts.

Temperatures will be near seasonal normals throughout the long term
forecast. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to
low 90 and overnight lows in the 70s. With the potential for daytime
dew points to drop into the low to mid 70s, the drier air may
provide a relief from sticky humidity and heat advisories. However,
with less cloud coverage and lighter rainfall, it will still allow
for oppressive heat and warm temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through around 15Z, but can`t rule
out a passing shower or two around the terminals, especially
around APF, MIA and TMB. Numerous showers and thunderstorms can
be expected again near the east coast terminals after 16Z, with
best chances between 19z and 20/00Z. Winds should remain
generally light and variable through much the morning hours, but
still remaining weak in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Winds remain generally light across the coastal waters today as a
weak surface boundary remains just to the north of the area, with
continuing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
possible each day. The boundary reaches the area on Friday,
bringing a decrease in thunderstorm activity through the weekend
and into early next week. However, periods of locally higher seas
and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm that forms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Expect minor to moderate coastal flooding to continue during
periods of high tide. These elevated tides will continue to affect
all coastal areas of South Florida through Friday morning, for
which a coastal flood advisory remains in effect. For the upcoming
weekend, a decrease in northerly swell should help in decreasing
the potential for coastal flooding. However, an elevated risk of
rip currents could continue for the Palm Beaches during the next
several days.

NAPLES HIGH TIDE TIMES... 1:56 PM today.
LAKE WORTH HIGH TIDE TIMES...931 AM today, 949 PM tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  89  75  89 /  50  60  40  40
West Kendall     74  90  73  91 /  50  60  40  40
Opa-Locka        75  90  75  91 /  50  60  40  40
Homestead        75  89  75  89 /  50  60  40  40
Fort Lauderdale  75  88  75  88 /  50  50  40  40
N Ft Lauderdale  76  89  75  90 /  50  50  40  30
Pembroke Pines   76  91  75  92 /  50  60  40  40
West Palm Beach  75  90  75  90 /  50  50  30  30
Boca Raton       75  90  75  91 /  50  50  40  30
Naples           76  90  75  91 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for FLZ069-075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...17
LONG TERM....JS