850
FXUS62 KMFL 161120
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
720 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

05z Mesoanalysis and ACARS (aircraft) data from local airports this
morning reveal a continuation of comfortable conditions across South
Florida with dewpoints currently in the mid to upper 60s. Even in
the relatively quiet weather regime we currently find ourselves in,
mesoscale phenomena can still preclude a totally dry forecast.
Looking at current surface observations inland and along the
immediate east coast, the convergence of light northwesterly winds
and northeasterly winds has led to weak coastal convergence along
the east coast of South Florida over the last several hours. KAMX
(Miami Radar) has been tracking an increasing amount of shower
activity just offshore of the east coast of South Florida within
the past one to two hours. ACARS data from our three major east
coast airports (KMIA, KFLL, and KPBI) as well as the 00z MFL upper
air sounding reveal a plethora of dry air in most of the
atmospheric column with the exception of a shallow layer of
surface moisture (up to 750mb). The warm waters of the nearby Gulf
Stream and that shallow layer of moisture will likely result in
the continuation of quick moving shower activity just offshore or
along the immediate east coast of South Florida for the rest of
today. The NBM (National Blend of Models) had 0% chances for rain
today across the majority of the area, but based on analysis and
mesoscale models, have added in 20-30% precipitation chances for
the eastern half of the region today. Diurnal heating may allow
for the expansion of these vertically capped showers further
inland during the afternoon hours as northeasterly winds enhance
across the entire region.

Zooming out and taking a look at the synoptic pattern in play, South
Florida remains situated between expansive mid-level ridging across
the Gulf and Mississippi River Valley and a mid-level troughing
amplifying across the northeastern United States and western
Atlantic waters. This will result in the continuation of north to
northwesterly mid level flow over the next several days, ushering in
a continued dry airmass in the mid to upper levels of the
atmosphere. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary tied to an
distant area of low pressure out in the northern Atlantic will
gradually slide southward across our region today. The development
of an expansive surface ridge of high pressure across most of the
eastern United States and adjacent Atlantic waters will result in
the enhancement of a pressure gradient between these two features.
Breezy northeasterly winds will pick up during the afternoon hours,
especially along the immediate east coast. Breezy onshore flow
combined with the factors listed above, could support the continued
advection of spotty low-topped showers across the eastern half of
South Florida today. The enhancement of onshore winds will create a
slight temperature gradient across the region this afternoon with
forecasted high temperatures in the middle 80s across the eastern
half of the region and highs in the upper 80s (even a few locales
potentially reaching 90F) across the western half of the region.

With the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
in full swing, the next longwave trough across the western United
States will begin to amplify and pivot eastward. This will result
in the axis of mid-level ridging across the central Gulf to slide
eastward over the Florida Peninsula and local waters. While dry
air and subsidence remain the status quo in the mid-levels, the
pressure gradient will continue to strengthen on Friday. This will
result in gusty surface winds across most of the region,
especially across the Atlantic waters and along the immediate east
coast of South Florida. Residual low-level moisture combined with
the gusty northeasterly surface winds will keep the threat of a
few isolated showers along the east coast of South Florida in the
forecast. The enhancement of winds will lead to a greater
temperature gradient during the afternoon hours with highs in the
low 80s forecast along the immediate east coast to highs in the
upper 80s across coastal southwestern Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

As the longwave trough across the central United States continues to
amplify, mid-level ridging over the Florida Peninsula and adjacent
waters will gradually flatten out and weaken in strength. Persistent
mid-level northwesterly flow may veer more west- northwesterly or
even westerly during this time frame. The axis of expansive
surface ridging situated across the eastern United States will
advect eastward into the western Atlantic waters, veering local
surface flow out of a more easterly direction. This will result in
a slight weakening of the pressure gradient on Saturday, although
winds will still remain breezy (at times gusty), especially along
the east coast of South Florida. The afternoon temperature
gradient will remain with us once again, as forecasted highs range
from the low to mid 80s along the east coast to temperatures in
the upper 80s across southwestern Florida.

The uncertainty in the forecast then rises and remains high
for the second half of the weekend and into the early portion of
next week as the latest guidance suite shows the aforementioned mid-
level trough arriving across the Ohio River Valley & northeastern
United States Sunday into Monday. At the surface, a frontal boundary
associated with an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes region
will sweep across the Southeast and into the Florida Peninsula
during this general time frame. The global and ensemble guidance
still remain in disagreement with several items in regards to the
mid level trough as well as the associated surface low and frontal
boundary. While both the ECMWF & GFS show the trough axis,
subtropical jet, and dynamics remaining to the north of our region,
any transit of a mid-level shortwave at the base of the trough
across our area could act to increase shower and thunderstorm
chances by steepening lapse rates and providing a boost in
instability. For now at least, both the latest European and American
do not currently depict a short-wave passage across our region at
this time. This will continue to be monitored as the week
progresses.

As mid-level troughing slides into the western Atlantic waters on
Tuesday, the subtropical jet and upstream waves will remain active
across the central and eastern United States. Expansive surface
ridging will develop across most of the United States during this
time period with the potential of reinforcing weak frontal
boundaries pushing southward into our region. During this time
frame, high temperatures will trend higher as breezy diurnally
easterly flow continues. High temperatures in the low 90s are
possible during the early to mid portion of the week across
southwestern Florida with forecasted high temps in the mid to upper
80s across the east coast metro.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 716 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Light and variable winds early this morning will become more
northeasterly later today. Slight chance of passing showers along
the East Coast until around 18Z. Brief periods of sub-VFR
conditions could be possible as a result, but confidence remains
low. Winds will remain light and out of the northeast overnight,
but could grow gusty at times early tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

A moderate to fresh north to northeasterly breeze will continue
across the local waters today. By late today into tonight, the
passage of a frontal boundary will result in an enhancement of winds
across our local waters, especially in our nearshore Atlantic
waters. Winds will remain fresh to strong on Friday and Saturday
before lessening during the second half of the weekend and veering
more southeasterly. This will result in SCEC (Small Craft Exercise
Caution) conditions developing across our northern Atlantic waters
this afternoon before expanding to the rest of our local waters this
evening. A northeasterly swell will result in seas in the northern
Atlantic waters reaching Small Craft Advisory (SCA) tonight, with
seas building to 7 feet in the Gulfstream. Seas will also build to 7
feet in the southern Atlantic waters by the early to mid morning
hours of Friday. Seas across the Gulf waters will range from 2 to 3
feet today, increasing to the 2 to 4 feet range by Friday. Isolated
to scattered showers will remain in the forecast across our local
waters each day, especially over and near the Gulfstream waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches
today while a moderate risk remains in place across the Broward and
Miami Dade County beaches. As onshore flow begins to increase and a
northeasterly swell begins to build in the Atlantic, the rip current
risk will become high across all Atlantic Coast beaches by this
evening and remain in the high category through at least Friday
evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

The combination of higher than normal tidal levels due to the lunar
cycle, increasing onshore flow, and northeasterly swell will
result in the continued potential of minor coastal flooding within
1.5 to 2 hours of high tide along the east coast over the next
several days. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for
coastal Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties through at
least Friday morning. Given the continuation of breezy to at times
gusty onshore winds along the east coast through the first part of
the weekend, the Coastal Flood Statement may need to be extended
further out in time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            86  74  84  73 /  20  20  10  10
West Kendall     87  72  85  70 /  20  20  10  10
Opa-Locka        87  74  85  71 /  30  30  10  10
Homestead        85  74  84  73 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  84  74  83  72 /  30  30  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  85  74  83  73 /  30  30  10  10
Pembroke Pines   88  74  86  72 /  30  30  10  10
West Palm Beach  84  74  84  72 /  30  30  10  10
Boca Raton       86  74  84  72 /  30  30  10  10
Naples           88  71  89  68 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.

     High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Friday evening
     for FLZ172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday
     for AMZ650-670.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for
     AMZ651-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...99