508
FXUS62 KMFL 300627
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
227 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

South Florida remains under the influence of a strong high-
pressure ridge extending from the western Atlantic, leading to
rising geopotential heights aloft. At the surface, easterly to
southeasterly flow continues, bringing a moderately moist airmass
(PWAT around 1.8 to 2.0 inches) onshore. This setup may result in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, primarily over the
interior and southwest Florida. With minimal wind shear and weak
forcing for ascent, most convection will be routine, with
lightning and locally strong wind gusts as the primary hazards.

Little change is expected by Tuesday, with a positively tilted
trough over the southeastern U.S. allowing for slight height falls
over South Florida, possibly allowing for slightly less
oppressive heat. Weak ESE flow will persist near the surface, and
storms will likely again develop over the interior and
southwestern parts of the state.

The oppressive heat will continue into the early part of the week,
though temperatures may be a few degrees lower than the weekend.
Peak heat indices are expected to range from 105 to 110,
particularly over the interior and southwest regions. Heat
advisories may be warranted.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

By the middle of the week, mid and upper-level ridging will
strengthen as it merges with a ridge over the eastern U.S. At the
surface, light easterly flow will prevail around weak Atlantic
high pressure. Uncertainty increases towards the weekend as a
disturbance may develop in the northwestern Caribbean or southern
Gulf of Mexico.

The ridge`s influence will keep rain chances (PoPs) in the
isolated to scattered range on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the
easterly low-level flow favoring the interior and southwest
Florida for the best rain chances. Rain chances toward the end of
the week will depend on the development and track of the
disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Current guidance
suggests the system will be broad and disorganized, with the
rebuilt ridge likely steering any surface low west of the area, at
least through the end of the week.

Rain chances will increase later in the period as deeper tropical
moisture filters in from the south. Temperatures will remain above
normal throughout the week, with highs generally in the low 90s,
and possibly mid-90s in the interior. There may be a slight
temperature drop late in the week as rain chances and cloud cover
increase. Overnight lows will stay in the mid to upper 70s, with
no sign of the seasons first sub-70-degree low through the early
part of October.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Generally VFR through the period with an overnight light and
variable wind becoming more southeasterly through the day. Best
chances for showers and storms will be inland and west with the
potential for some impacts to APF in the afternoon and early
evening. Convection and wind flow should diminish late in the
forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Weak southerly winds will become more east to southeast as the
week progresses. Seas continue to subside and generally remain no
greater than 3 to 4 feet along both the Atlantic and Gulf waters
through early portions of the week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

An elevated rip current risk lingers along the Atlantic beaches of
South Florida, primarily for the Broward and Palm Beach
coastlines. This elevated rip current risk will generally prevail
through the early week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  79  91  77 /  20  10  20  20
West Kendall     93  77  92  75 /  20  10  20  10
Opa-Locka        92  79  92  77 /  20  10  20  10
Homestead        91  79  91  77 /  20  10  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  90  79  90  77 /  20  10  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  91  79  91  77 /  20  10  20  10
Pembroke Pines   94  79  94  78 /  20  10  20  10
West Palm Beach  92  78  91  77 /  20   0  20  10
Boca Raton       92  79  91  77 /  20  10  20  10
Naples           92  77  91  77 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ069>074-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...RAG