498
FXUS62 KMFL 041112
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
712 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 203 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

As the axis of a mid-level ridge gradually pivots into the western
Atlantic waters today, the atmospheric profile will remain mainly dry
above 850mb with continued mid-level subsidence and a capping inversion
in place. At the surface, a continued pressure gradient between surface
high pressure over the western Atlantic waters and a frontal boundary
and associated low pressure system over the southeastern United States
will result in continued breezy southeasterly surface winds. While most
of us will remain dry today, the onshore flow will result in widespread
shallow-topped cumulus clouds this afternoon across the majority of the
region. Increased boundary moisture along the east coast of South Florida
could support the potential of a few isolated showers briefly making it
onshore from time to time. However, given the capped nature of the
atmosphere today with stout subsidence aloft, no significant measurable
rainfall totals are expected through the first part of the weekend.

A rinse and repeat pattern on Saturday with the caveat that the pressure
gradient will relax, decreasing surface winds across the region while
maintaining a southeasterly direction of surface winds. A temperature
gradient will remain across South Florida each afternoon with the
moderation of temps along the east coast, keeping highs in the low to
mid 80s. However, diurnal heating and transport of heated air overland
will result in high temperatures for southwestern Florida in the upper
80s to low 90s. The inverse will be true for the overnight hours as
temperatures remain warm along the east coast with wake up temps in the
low to mid 70s, as opposed to temps across inland southwestern Florida
mainly in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 203 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

The atmospheric hallmarks of an transitory period will be afoot across
South Florida on Sunday as the region will remain situated in between
the departing influence of the mid-level ridge across the western
Atlantic waters and a deep mid-level trough located across the central
United States and western Gulf. 500mb flow will veer to a southwesterly
direction in tandem with surface flow veering to a southerly direction.
This subtle shift at the surface and aloft will usher in a period of
heat across the region as afternoon temperatures on Sunday reach the
low 90s (potentially middle 90s in a few spots) across inland
southwestern Florida with heat indices (feels-like temperatures) in
the middle to upper 90s. With the continued pivot of the mid-level
trough and associated surface features further east on Monday, South
Florida will be firmly in the warm sector of the low pressure system
and attendant frontal boundary. Surface winds will veer to a
southwesterly component, ushering in a regime favorable for afternoon
high temperatures several degrees above average on the east coast. With
a moderate risk of heat risk on Monday afternoon forecast across most
of the eastern half of South Florida, readers are reminded to exercise
caution if outdoors for extended periods of time and to take the
necessary precautions to ensure heat safety for you and your loved ones.

Dry air aloft will act to suppress much in the form of rainfall during
this period, but diurnal heating could result in a few isolated pop-up
showers during the afternoon hours, especially along any surface boundary
such as the Atlantic sea-breeze where localized ascent may be maximized.

As the axis of the mid-level trough pivots across the northern Gulf coast
on Tuesday, the associated surface low will accelerate northeastwards
well away from the region as an attendant surface frontal boundary sweeps
eastwards towards the peninsula. An envelope of deeper moisture is
modeled to travel in tandem with the frontal boundary as it arrives
across the region during the afternoon hours on Tuesday. The added lift
associated with the presence of this feature could act to support
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across South Florida on Tuesday
afternoon. The timing of the surface boundary, the mid-level cold pool
aloft, and instability will dictate on how robust convection could be.
Given that we still remain a few days out, model guidance still remains
murky on spatial coverage and whether any threat of stronger storms may
exist. One thing that does appear to be clear is that measurable
precipitation does appear to be in the forecast given the higher rain
chances and a more unstable airmass in place.

Surface winds will then veer to a northeasterly direction and enhance
behind the frontal boundary late Tuesday into early Wednesday. While
dry air will remain in the vertical column aloft, breezy onshore winds
will result in continued low level surface moisture & resultant rain
chances across the eastern half of the region on Wednesday and Thursday.
The breezy winds combined with increased cloudiness and shower activity
will result in high temperatures near or below seasonal averages across
most of South Florida during the mid week period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for most of the 12Z TAF period. MVFR
possible for a few east coast sites this morning, but this will
lift by late morning. Breezy SE winds continue and increase after
14Z with 15-20 kt winds and gusting around 25 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

A moderate to fresh southeasterly breeze will continue across the local
waters through the first part of the weekend. While cautionary conditions
will continue in the Gulf, hazardous conditions for small craft will
continue across the Biscayne Bay and Atlantic waters of South Florida
through Saturday morning. Winds will slowly begin to subside during the
second half of the weekend into early next week. Seas across the Atlantic
waters will range from 3 to 6 feet through the end of the week while seas
across the Gulf waters range from 2 to 4 feet.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

As breezy southeasterly winds continue, the high risk of rip currents will
remain for the east coast beaches of South Florida into the upcoming
weekend. As winds veer to a south and then southwesterly direction early
next week, the risk will decrease along the east coast but increase to a
high risk along the Gulf beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            85  76  85  74 /  10  10   0   0
West Kendall     86  74  86  71 /  10  10   0   0
Opa-Locka        86  74  86  72 /  10  10   0   0
Homestead        85  76  85  73 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  84  76  83  73 /  10  10   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  83  75  84  73 /  10  10   0   0
Pembroke Pines   86  76  87  73 /  10  10   0   0
West Palm Beach  84  74  85  72 /  10  10   0   0
Boca Raton       85  75  84  73 /  10  10   0   0
Naples           89  72  88  71 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...CMF