220
FXUS62 KMFL 302236
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
636 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

NEAR TERM: The strong southeasterly flow has kept Atlantic coast
clear of showers this morning. With the Gulf breeze and diurnal
heating, this afternoon is expected to become active, especially
in the interior and SW FL, with sea breezes and outflow
boundaries. The 18Z sounding has not composed yet, but the
forecast soundings continue to support atmospheric conditions for
an afternoon and early evening with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Any passing storms will bring the potential for
hazards such as gusty winds, small hail, lightning, and heavy
rainfall.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Uncertainty remains high as we move into the
extended forecast...the latest National Hurricane Center update
kept the potential for a tropical disturbance at 20% chance in the
next 7 days. Regardless of tropical format or not, the incoming
moisture and activity will bring a holiday weekend with plentiful
rainfall and potential for hydro hazards in the Florida Peninsula.
Conditions will continued to be monitored.
For the latest updates: weather.gov/mfl or nhc.noaa.gov

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Conditions across South Florida will remain unsettled this week,
with scattered showers and strong thunderstorms possible each
afternoon. Surface high over the western Atlantic ocean will
continue to promote light southeasterly flow across the region
today, and convective development will be (mostly) driven by local
mesoscale processes, with daytime heating and sea breeze and other
boundary collisions playing a pivotal role. The presence of a
lingering tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) over the Bahamas
will act to enhance activity, with forecast soundings showing CAPE >
3000 J/kg, 500 mb temperatures staying below -8C and lapse rates 6-7
C/km in the early afternoon hours. Strong thunderstorms could be
possible as a result, capable of heavy downpours, damaging wind
gusts and perhaps some small hail, mainly after 5PM and into the
early night hours. Convection will be mainly focused over the
interior, southwest FL and the Lake Okeechobee area.

On Tuesday, mid-level troughing will begin to develop across the
Midwest, eventually absorbing the TUTT as it continues to drift
northward. Meanwhile, an associated surface low and frontal
boundary will move across the Eastern Seaboard, pushing the
western Atlantic surface high further south. As a result, surface
winds across South Florida will start to veer from the
south/southeast, leading to convective activity each afternoon
becoming more concentrated across northern portions of the CWA
instead of interior and southwest Florida. At the same time, the
last of the lingering Saharan Dust will clear out and deep
moisture will return with the southerly flow, with PWATs climbing
into 1.9-2.1 inch range, potentially leading to heavy rainfall
and localized flooding with any strong convection on Tuesday.

High temperatures will remain typical for this time of year as they
will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s across most areas. Heat
indices across the interior and southwest Florida could peak in the
low 100s. Balmy conditions overnight, with lows in the upper 70s and
upper 80s along the coasts, and low 70s across the interior.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Uncertainty increases in the extended period as the
aforementioned frontal boundary stalls out across the southeast
U.S. later this week, pushing the surface high further south and
away from the Florida peninsula. Deep moisture will return to the
area as southerly flow prevails, with PWATs climbing above 2
inches each day, and model guidance agrees in keeping elevated
chances for showers and thunderstorms across northern portions of
the CWA each afternoon through the long term period. Model QPF
also hints at heavy downpours with some of these showers and
thunderstorms each evening, with values in the 1-2 inch range
each day in the Lake Okeechobee area.

Uncertainty in the long term forecast stems from the possibility
of a disturbance developing sometime later this week. Some of the
deterministic guidance hints at an area of low pressure
potentially forming somewhere along the stalled frontal boundary
(could be over the Gulf waters, or over the Panhandle, or even
over the Gulf Stream waters). However, the lack of model consensus
or a consistent trend continues to complicate the forecast. If a
system does develop, it could potentially help enhance the
aforementioned chances for showers and thunderstorms across the
region, and elevate the potential for severe and flooding impacts.
This scenario will need to be monitored closely in the coming
days.

Seasonably warm temperatures will continue each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Mostly VFR conditions for the 00Z TAF period. Southeasterly winds
are declining and expected to become light and variable overnight.
Evening convection should stay away from all east coast terminals
as it wanes. Showers expected to continue into the early evening
at APF, bringing potential for poor cigs and vis, but conditions
expected to improve and clear as the evening progresses. Rinse and
repeat tomorrow, with SE winds around 10kts again, except for SW
winds at KAPF. Gusty, erratic winds possible with passing storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Gentle southeasterly winds prevail through midweek as surface high
remains in place over the western Atlantic. This feature could shift
southward later this week, resulting in more southerly flow across
all local waters.  Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will
remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend and into early next
week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
the local waters each day. Any thunderstorm can produce brief
periods of rough seas along with gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  89  79  89 /  30  60  30  40
West Kendall     74  89  75  90 /  30  60  30  40
Opa-Locka        78  91  79  92 /  30  60  30  40
Homestead        78  89  78  90 /  40  60  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  78  88  78  88 /  30  70  40  50
N Ft Lauderdale  78  88  78  89 /  30  70  40  50
Pembroke Pines   80  93  81  93 /  30  70  30  40
West Palm Beach  76  89  76  89 /  40  70  40  60
Boca Raton       77  91  77  90 /  30  70  40  60
Naples           73  89  75  89 /  50  70  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...JS