418
FXUS62 KMFL 092305
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
605 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1239 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

A breezy easterly to southeasterly wind flow will continue through
the weekend as South Florida sits on the periphery of high pressure
centered over the mid-Atlantic United States. Rafael lingers in the
western Gulf of Mexico and an inverted surface trough is moving
across the Greater Antilles. Spirited wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph
are likely along the Atlantic coast. A pocket of drier air
accompanying a ridge of high pressure aloft will help limit the
depth of convection which should remain isolated Atlantic showers
that survive ashore. Temperatures along the Atlantic coast should
remain in the lower to mid 80s but additional sunshine helping to
warm the easterly airmass as it traverses the peninsula will allow
Southwest Florida to warm into the mid to upper 80s each
afternoon. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s due to the
moderated airmass and lack of surface dry air.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 249 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

The aforementioned inverted surface trough will approach the
region Sunday night into Monday as the mid level inverted trough
passes off to the south. As this occurs, deep layer moisture
advection will take place and PWATs across the region will rise
and range between 1.5 inches over the west coast, to close to 2.0
inches over the east coast metro areas by Monday afternoon. This
will allow for the chances of showers to increase across South
Florida during this time frame. While both the mid level and
surface trough will help to provide a source of lift on Monday, it
will not be much as both of these features will be in a weakening
state. This will help to keep thunderstorm chances limited during
this time frame as the main source of instability will be peak
diurnal heating on Monday afternoon. High temperatures on Monday
will generally range from the mid 80s along the east coast to the
upper 80s across the interior as well as Southwest Florida.

Heading into Tuesday and the middle of the week, the surface and
mid level inverted trough wash out and mid level ridging
gradually builds into South Florida from the Gulf of Mexico. This
ridge will quickly flatten out and push eastward as a stronger mid
level trough pushes across the Eastern Seaboard for the second
half of the week. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary
will approach from the north and actually push through South
Florida during the middle of the week. This front will not have a
lot of moisture or instability to work with, therefore, chances
of showers will remain low out ahead of the front. Behind the
front, a much drier air mass will push into the region for the
second half of the week as well as slightly cooler temperatures.

While high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will remain in
the mid to upper 80s across most areas, these temperatures will
only rise into the lower 80s in general behind the front on
Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows towards the end of the week
will drop into the lower to mid 60s across the Lake Okeechobee
region, and into the upper 60s to around 70 across the east coast
metro areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Mainly VFR expected through the overnight and then some SCT MVFR
ceilings are possible on Sunday. A few coastal showers are
possible tonight and then a slight increase in chances after 10Z
on Sunday. Easterly winds around 10 kts tonight increasing to
10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts during the day Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1239 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Strengthening easterly flow will result in hazardous marine
conditions for the Atlantic waters lasting through late Sunday
night. Winds increase to 20-25 kts with seas building to 3-6 ft.
Cautionary conditions are expected for the remainder of South FL
waters this weekend. Improving conditions are expected early this
upcoming week as the pressure gradient weakens.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1239 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Persistent moderate easterly flow will result in a high risk of rip
currents for the Atlantic beaches this weekend. An elevated risk
will persist into at least the early portion of this upcoming
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  85  76  86 /  20  20  40  30
West Kendall     73  85  74  87 /  20  20  30  30
Opa-Locka        75  85  75  87 /  20  20  40  30
Homestead        76  85  76  86 /  20  20  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  76  85  76  85 /  20  20  40  40
N Ft Lauderdale  76  84  76  86 /  20  20  40  40
Pembroke Pines   75  85  76  89 /  20  20  40  30
West Palm Beach  76  84  76  86 /  20  30  40  40
Boca Raton       76  85  76  87 /  20  30  40  40
Naples           71  86  73  86 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CMF