474
FXUS62 KMFL 221943
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
243 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 117 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Model and sfc analyses depict a stationary front lingering over
the Florida Keys, while a storm system over the SE CONUS
migrates east and into the western Atlantic. 12Z MFL sounding
shows mid level moisture still streaming across the area from
west-to-east, which is also seen on latest radar data. Most of
the remaining bands of stratiform rain will mainly affect the
northern half of SoFlo with better chances over Palm Beach county
and northern Broward through the late afternoon hours. But a few
light showers are still possible for the rest of the area as a
shortwave feature races across the S CONUS and pushes a weak
boundary into the state. Cloud decks should remain in place, but
with a break from showers/rain late this afternoon and this
evening.

Tonight, ensembles and high-res solutions show a potential a
weak low to develop off the east coast of Florida, mainly
after midnight, and bringing some additional showers and drizzle
through Thursday morning. A drier airmass should begin to filter
in the wake of the low, with drier weather conditions expected by
Thursday mid-late afternoon.

Prevailing northerly flow, gusty at times, will ensure the
continuation of cold air advection across SoFlo, with temperatures
remaining well below normal values during the short term. Lows
tonight will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s around the Lake
region, and upper 50s near the coasts. High temps on Thursday will
range from the upper 50s west of the lake, to around 70 across SE
FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 149 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Surface high pressure builds in to our north on Friday into the
weekend. This will scour out any remaining moisture and bring dry
and much cooler air into the region. Outside of some occasional coastal
showers, dry weather will persist into early next week.

Friday will be the coolest day of the extended period with highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and lows Friday night in the mid
30s west of the lake to upper 40s close to the Atlantic coast.
Apparent temps around the lake and in interior portions of SW FL
could fall to the upper 20s in some spots. There will be a slight
warm up on Saturday but still below normal with highs generally
65-70 and lows ranging from the upper 40s to lower 60s.

As high pressure shifts east into the western Atlantic late in the
weekend into early next week, easterly flow returns to the area
which will bring back warmer temperatures. Afternoon highs will be
in the mid to upper 70s, with lows each night ranging from the
middle 50s to middle 60s. &&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 117 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

A weak frontal boundary is keeping low CIGs and TEMPO VIS
reductions over most of the Atlantic terminals through the rest of
the afternoon and into the early evening hours. Some periods of
IFR/LIFR conditions are still possible. Winds are expected to
remain mainly N/NNW in the 10-15 kt range with possible gusts to
20 kt until around 00Z, then decreasing to 7-10 kt for the rest of
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 117 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Any leftover fog over the Gulf waters should be dissipating during
the next hour or so. Hazardous boating conditions will continue
today over the Atlantic and Gulf waters, with gusty winds and
periods of rough seas expected as weak front pushes through the
area. Expect northerly winds of 20 to 25 kts with seas in the Gulf
5-9 ft and 6-11 ft in the Atlantic, resulting in hazardous seas
lingering through Thursday afternoon.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 117 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

A high risk for rip currents is in effect for all the Atlantic
beaches. This high risk may persist through the middle of the
week, particularly for coastal Palm Beach county.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            60  70  51  62 /  30  20   0  10
West Kendall     57  72  50  64 /  30  20   0  10
Opa-Locka        58  72  50  64 /  30  30  10  10
Homestead        60  73  50  65 /  20  20   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  60  70  50  61 /  40  40  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  60  69  51  61 /  40  40  10  10
Pembroke Pines   60  74  51  65 /  30  30  10  10
West Palm Beach  59  68  49  61 /  30  40  10  10
Boca Raton       60  71  50  63 /  40  40  10  10
Naples           51  60  47  59 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...17