057
FXUS62 KMFL 191103
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
703 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Deep layer ridging will prevail through the weekend with no
meaningful rainfall expected. A few passing light showers will be
possible overnight into the morning hours each day as is typical
with an easterly wind regime.

The main sensible weather hazard will be gusty winds. The
aforementioned surface ridge will remain locked in place, surrounded
on three sides by varying intensity shortwaves/lows. This will keep
the calmer center of the ridge over the western Atlantic, with the
gradients around its periphery maximized today.
Sustained winds will solidly be in the 15-20mph range across south
Florida today, with gusts around 25 mph inland and around 30 mph
closer to the coast. The center of the ridge will move westward into
Sunday, bringing slightly lighter winds. In general, shave about 5
mph off of Saturday`s winds for Sunday afternoon.

The easterly flow off the Atlantic will keep highs near normal
across the eastern half of south Florida and a few degrees above
normal across the western half. Highs will generally range from the
low to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

As we move into the new week, the west Atlantic high and mid-level
ridging will maintain a stronghold of our weather with dry and
stable conditions continuing. Pressure gradients tighten which will
lead to potential for breezy conditions across the east coast metro
and Atlantic waters. There will not be a sufficient increase in the
moisture levels with the air mass still projected to be too dry for
precipitation. Model guidance continues to forecast approximately 50-
70% of normal precipitable water and afternoon dew points in the low
60s in South Florida. Therefore, even with the easterly sea breeze
and warm temperatures, conditions are expected to remain dry and
stable throughout through most of the week. There continues to be no
clear return of much needed moisture and rain, via sea breeze nor
frontal passage, in our extended forecast. The NBM continues to hint
at potential for isolated light rain on Friday or Saturday with ~15-
20% PoPs. No agreement among model guidance about the likelihood for
rain, but the strong easterly winds may help if there is any
increase in moisture. High temperatures will warm into the mid-to-
upper 80s across a majority of the region, with a potential for
above normal low 90s across much of the interior southwestern
Florida. Overnight temperatures will be cool and comfortable, with
outgoing longwave radiation and little sky coverage, allowing for
lows to drop into the 60s, except low 70s along the east coast. With
dry air and very dry fuels regionwide, winds and RH values will be
watched carefully as the conditions will be prime for ignition and
rapid burns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings through the 12Z TAF period. Breezy
easterly winds today with gusts of 20-30 kts from late morning
through early evening. An isolated shower is possible along the
east coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

As mentioned above strong easterly winds are expected through the
weekend. This will create hazardous boating conditions across both
the Atlantic and Gulf waters. Advisory conditions are expected
through Sunday night for both coasts, with both wind and wave
criteria being met along the Atlantic side. While Advisory
conditions should subside on Monday, periods of Cautionary
conditions are expected through next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A high rip current risk will remain in effect along Atlantic beaches
through at least early next week. Strong easterly winds and elevated
surf will create life threatening swimming conditions, especially
for inexperienced ocean swimmers. Portions of the Broward and Palm
Beach coasts may sea breakers near 7 feet this weekend as well. For
now, surf is expected to remain just below advisory levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A couple days of low relative humidity coupled with higher than
usual winds has prompted the SPC to place the western half of south
Florida under an Elevated fire weather risk. While dewpoints will
remain mostly uniform across the region, the warmer western half
will result in humidities dropping to 35-40% today and tomorrow. At
this time a Red Flag warning is not necessary as there`s only about
a 20% chance of meeting criteria, and even then it would remain a
marginal event. With that said, caution should be exercised over the
coming days. Keep in mind that county-enacted burn bans remain in
place across much of western south Florida as well. Dispersion
indices will be over 90 for each afternoon this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  72  83  73 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     83  68  85  69 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        83  70  84  71 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        81  71  83  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  79  72  81  72 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  80  72  82  72 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   84  72  86  72 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  81  70  83  71 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       81  71  83  71 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           87  66  88  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...CMF