531
FXUS62 KMFL 071108
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
608 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

The synoptic regime is characterized by upper-level H500 ridging
over the western Atlantic waters, with Hurricane Rafael beginning
its westward turning towards the central Gulf of Mexico. The
pressure gradient induced by the close proximity of these features
will maintain gusty east-southeast winds. Dewpoints in the
low-70s indicate shallow depth of moisture within the boundary
layer, which may help spawn a few showers where low-level
convergence is locally maximized. Otherwise a mostly dry and
benign weather day for South Florida.

To round off the week, a wedge of drier air will briefly move in
over the CFWA from the east, which will generally help quell
rainfall chances and allow dry conditions to prevail. Winds will
continue to prevail out of the east, becoming breezy at times
(particularly along the east coast).

Temperatures will generally remain in the low to mid 80s across
the region. It will feel muggy today with dewpoints in the lower
70s, with a modest reduction into the mid/upper 60s by Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

The long term forecast shifts to a trough of low pressure located
several hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. As this
system tracks into the southeastern Bahamas late in the weekend
and into early next week, it retains a low probability of
development. However, regardless of any potential development,
increased moisture advection into South Florida is anticipated,
bringing a likelihood of scattered showers from Sunday through at
least the early part of the following week. Given the modest
forecast for ascent and deeper moisture, isolated thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out during this period.

Later in the middle of the week, a plume of drier/cooler air will
advect over the region out of the NE in association with a
passing cold front well north of the region. This should allow for
a subsequent drop in temperatures and dewpoints, albeit not a
significant reduction. Expect temperate, mostly dry conditions
through this period.

Temperatures will remain seasonably warm throughout the extended
forecast period, with daily highs generally reaching the mid-80s
across the east coast metro areas and the upper 80s across
southwestern Florida. Overnight lows are expected to range from
the low to mid-70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

Generally VFR ceilings through the TAF period except for
occasional MVFR with brief passing showers and drop in cigs/vis.
Isolated/scattered showers are possible through the morning
hours into early afternoon, mostly across the Gulf Coast and for
KAPF. Sustained E/SE winds remain around 15KT with gusts to 25KT
throughout the day before starting to weaken tonight. Much weaker
winds and dry conditions overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

Elevated winds will persist across the local waters today, though
gradually subsiding tonight into Friday. A Small Craft Advisory
is currently in effect for Atlantic and Gulf waters through this
evening, with sustained winds between 20 and 30 knots expected.
Strong easterly winds will also drive seas up to 6-8 feet in the
Atlantic waters, and 5-8 feet in the outer Gulf waters with 2-4
feet in the inner Gulf waters. The westward movement of Hurricane
Rafael will allow for wind speeds to relax by the end of the
week, although cautionary conditions may linger across the
Atlantic waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 333 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

A high risk for rip currents continues across all the Atlantic
beaches. The presence of onshore flow will allow for the high rip
current risk to extend into at least early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            84  75  85  74 /  20   0   0   0
West Kendall     86  73  86  72 /  20   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        86  75  86  74 /  20   0   0   0
Homestead        85  75  86  74 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  84  75  84  75 /  10   0  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  84  75  85  75 /  10   0  10   0
Pembroke Pines   87  75  87  74 /  20   0  10   0
West Palm Beach  84  75  85  74 /  10   0   0   0
Boca Raton       86  75  86  75 /  10   0   0   0
Naples           86  73  87  72 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for GMZ656-657.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...JS