378
FXUS62 KMFL 061353 AAA
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
953 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 749 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Latest morning radar data was showing large rainbands entering
the Gulf waters of SoFlo, while a few rounds of heavy rain are
moving across Miami-Dade and Broward counties. Storm steering
flow is veering to the S, or SSW, with cells moving in a SSW to
NNE direction in general. This may contribute to having multiple
rounds of showers over the same locations along the Atlantic metro
areas at times. MFL sounding data from the 12Z package was
depicting a very moist vertical profile, along with 2.40 inches
of PWATs. This synoptic setup will keep in place favorable
conditions for showers to develop through the rest of today.
Thus, a Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

The next two days have the potential to be significantly wet across
South Florida. An area of cyclonic rotation or weak area of low
pressure off to the NE of what is now Tropical Storm Milton is
producing a complex of rain showers and thunderstorms. As the day
progresses on Sunday and heading into Sunday night, this swath of
moisture (PWATs exceeding 2.5 inches which is above the 90th
percentile for this time of year) and instability will approach
the Central and South Florida regions with the low level
convergence zone likely to situate itself over the east coast
corridor. Additionally, South Florida will be under the right
entrance region of the upper level jet streak, which will provide
upper-level divergence and thus additional convective support.
Temperatures aloft will be on the warmer side (about -3 degC at
500mb) which hints at low lightning chances even with an abundance
of rain. This cyclonic zone will start to break down on Monday
but will linger and produce more widespread rain throughout the
day on Monday along with a lingering shortwave trough in the area.

Overall, anticipated QPF for the Sun-Mon time frame is around 2-4
inches with localized amounts of up to 6+ inches possible. A Flood
Watch is in effect beginning late Sunday morning and extending
through the short term period. It is important to note that this
initial round of rain is not directly associated with Tropical
Storm Milton. Any rain from Milton will happen later in the work
week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

**TS Milton Will Strengthen, Likely Make Landfall Across Gulf Coast
of Florida**

**Heavy Rainfall Expected: Widespread Swath of 5-8 Inches for South
Florida**

A broad envelope of deep tropical moisture will become zonally
elongated over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Simultaneously, several
upper level impulses will traverse the mean steering flow and result
in a gradual veering and cyclonic/convergent transition of winds
within the boundary layer. This will result in a favorable setup for
widespread rainfall, which may be heavy at times and could lead to
flash flooding through early to middle portions of next week.
Precipitable water indices (PWAT) as high as 2.3 - 2.6 inches is
near the 98-99th percentile for atmospheric moisture content this
time of year, and the steady isentropic ascent over this period will
allow for a prolonged period of rainfall through Wednesday, with few
intermittent bouts of dry conditions in between. Expected rainfall
totals from Sunday night through Wednesday are around 5 to 8 inches,
with isolated totals of 10+ inches possible. A Flood Watch is in
effect, as antecedent rainfall totals of several inches have already
accumulated over portions of metropolitan Palm Beach and Broward
Counties. There is a low-end chance that isolated locations could
experience significant freshwater flooding over the next several
days (particularly Monday/Tuesday), though the sporadic and chaotic
nature of convection in the tropics/sub-tropics makes it too
speculative to determine which exact locations may be most
vulnerable in terms of receiving the greatest rainfall totals.

As of now, Tropical Storm Milton sits in the SW Gulf of Mexico. This
system is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane and will likely
make landfall along the west coast of Florida. A short-wave trough
will eject southward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and likely
phase with the system at some point, perhaps allowing for some
extratropical characteristics as the system makes landfall along the
western coast of Florida. Regardless of the exact hybrid nature of
the storm, Milton may bring significant impacts to the region and
the west coast of Florida as a whole. The primary concern aside from
the aforementioned heavy rainfall will be the potential for
significant, potentially life threatening storm surge values for
coastal portions of Collier and Mainland Monroe Counties, as the
angle of approach and strength of the system could allow for
devastating storm surge to impact these locations. With that being
said, there exists a reasonable bit of uncertainty on where the
exact landfall point will be, with model solutions ranging as far
north as Citrus/Hernando County, and as far as south Mainland Monroe
County. It is crucial to mention that regardless of the exact
landfall point, this system could be a significant storm surge
producer for coastal portions of southwest Florida, so it is
absolutely paramount for communities in these coastal locations to
monitor and prepare accordingly.

Towards the middle/end of next week following Milton`s departure
into the western Atlantic waters, a strong/expansive ridge of high
pressure is forecast to dominate the eastern CONUS, with a surface
high pressure centered over the Appalachian Mountains. South Florida
will likely be within the southern quadrant of this feature, with a
mean NE/ENE flow prevailing across the region. This may be a timely
and much needed start to the dry season, though some uncertainty
remains regarding the distinction and separation of air masses.
Nevertheless, a much quieter period appears in store in terms of
sensible weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Periods of MVFR/IFR expected today with numerous showers and
embedded thunderstorms through much of the day. Uncertainty
remains in the overall timing of restrictions, with heavy rainfall
the main driver of lower vis and cigs. Tempos are in place for the
time frame with better chances of impacts and will be amd as
necessary. Winds will generally be easterly 10-15kts through the
day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Generally moderate easterly winds will prevail across the area
waters through Sunday and Monday around 10-15kts, with seas in the
Atlantic waters around 3-4 ft as swell continues to move in from the
north. Periods of rain are likely over the next couple days with
some embedded thunderstorms possible, and may result in locally
higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

There is a high risk for rip currents for the Palm Beaches today
while remaining moderate for the Miami and Broward beaches as
onshore flow persists. Moderate amplitude northerly swell will
continue to move in heading into next week which will keep the rip
current risk elevated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            85  75  83  75 /  80  70  80  70
West Kendall     86  75  84  74 /  80  70  80  70
Opa-Locka        86  76  84  75 /  80  70  80  70
Homestead        86  76  84  75 /  80  80  80  70
Fort Lauderdale  85  74  82  75 /  80  80  80  70
N Ft Lauderdale  85  74  82  75 /  80  80  80  70
Pembroke Pines   87  77  85  76 /  80  70  80  70
West Palm Beach  84  74  82  75 /  80  70  80  70
Boca Raton       86  74  83  75 /  80  80  80  70
Naples           84  74  82  75 /  90  70  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...17