554
FXUS62 KMFL 302313
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
713 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A mid level shortwave will continue to push across South Florida
through the rest of this afternoon and into tonight. With plenty
of deep layer tropical moisture in place across the region, this
mid level shortwave will continue to provide the support to fuel
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area through the
evening hours. Since the steering flow will remain rather weak,
showers and storms will remain slow moving. This, combined with
the possibility of multiple rounds of heavy downpours, will allow
for the potential of localized flooding especially over the metro
areas. While the chances of strong thunderstorm development
remain low, they cannot be entirely ruled out this afternoon. The
best chances of strong thunderstorm development will be over the
interior portions of Southwest Florida as the shortwave passes
over during peak diurnal heating. The strongest thunderstorms
could contain gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Most of the showers and thunderstorms over land will diminsh as
the evening progresses due to loss of diurnal heating. The mid
level shortwave will still be close enough to support the chance
of additional shower and thunderstorm development over the local
waters as well as the east coast overnight. Low temperatures
tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across the Lake
Okeechobee region to the upper 70s across the east coast metro
areas.

On Monday, the weather pattern across South Florida will remain
rather unsettled as the mid level disturbance slowly pushes into
the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, high pressure in
the western Atlantic will get pinched further to the east as a
frontal boundary remains draped over the Southeast and Gulf Coast
States. This will cause the winds to become southeasterly as the
day progresses. Plenty of deep tropical moisture will remain in
place as forecast soundings show PWAT values ranging between 2.1
and 2.3 inches. This will help to support the development of
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as the day
progresses. The showers and storms will start out over the local
waters and the east coast metro areas in the morning before
shifting towards the interior and west coast during the afternoon
and evening hours. Since the steering flow will remain rather
light, the storm motion will continue to remain slow. This could
allow for the potential of localized flooding to continue
especially in areas that are already saturated from recent heavy
rainfall. High temperatures on Monday will generally rise into the
upper 80s and lower 90s across most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center in Miami
indicates that hurricane Beryl should remain well to the south of
SoFlo during the long term period. Meanwhile, models continue to
show an expanding upper/mid level ridge just north of the area,
which gradually deepens and aligns with sfc high pressure. This will
keep prevailing ESE winds over SoFlo, with a persisting typical
summer weather pattern throughout much of the week.

The main mechanisms for deep convection and potential strong
thunderstorms will again be the combination of daytime heating
and sea breeze boundaries. Showers and thunderstorms should first
develop around the East Coast Metro areas during the late
morning/early afternoon hours, then increasing in coverage and
shifting west into interior and Gulf Coast areas during the late
afternoon/early evening hours. The biggest cells could produce
localized flooding as outflow boundaries interact and may result
in slow-moving or even stationary storms.

Temperatures should remain around or slightly warmer than normals,
with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and heat indices
reaching triple digits. Overnight lows should remain in the mid to
upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Mostly VFR conditions expected to prevail across the region through
the evening hours. Isolated to scattered showers possible overnight
with periods sub-VFR at TAF sites near storms. Winds will be
light and variable overnight. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms as the day progresses with the east coast this
morning followed by the interior and Gulf Coast in the afternoon.
Short-fused TEMPOS may be needed. Gulf sea-breeze may cause a wind
shift at APF around 16-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will continue through
tonight across the local waters. These winds will gradually become
southeasterly over the Atlantic waters during the early portion of
the week. Over the Gulf waters, winds will become south to
southwesterly during this time frame. Seas over the Atlantic and
Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less during the early portion
of the week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
develop each day across the local waters. Winds and seas could be
locally higher in and around showers and storms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The risk of rip currents may increase across the Atlantic Coast
beaches towards the middle of the week as onshore flow increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  90  80  91 /  50  60  50  70
West Kendall     75  90  77  92 /  40  70  40  70
Opa-Locka        77  91  80  92 /  40  60  50  70
Homestead        77  89  79  90 /  50  60  50  70
Fort Lauderdale  77  88  80  90 /  40  60  50  70
N Ft Lauderdale  78  90  80  90 /  40  60  50  70
Pembroke Pines   77  92  80  93 /  40  60  50  70
West Palm Beach  77  91  79  91 /  40  60  40  70
Boca Raton       78  91  80  91 /  40  50  50  70
Naples           75  90  78  91 /  40  70  40  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...JS