Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
089 FXUS62 KMFL 241750 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 150 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 A weakening frontal boundary continues to remain stalled out over Northern Florida early this afternoon which is helping to create the synoptic west to southwesterly wind flow across the region. The WSW wind flow is strong enough to keep the east coast sea breeze pinned right at the coast this afternoon. Recent ACARS soundings show plenty of instability already in place (SB CAPE values hovering around 4000-4500 J/kg), along with plenty of deep layer moisture in place (PWAT values of 1.88 inches). With moisture continuing to advect into the region, showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop as the afternoon progresses with a focus developing over the Lake Okeechobee region as well as the east coast metro areas. ACARS Soundings do show DCAPE around 700-800 J/kg this afternoon which will be supportive of some of the stronger thunderstorms containing winds gusts of 45 to 55 mph later this afternoon into the early evening hours. The abundance of deep layer moisture will also provide the threat for localized flooding especially over the east coast metro areas and the Lake Okeechobee region where heavy downpours could create higher rainfall rates with the strongest convection this afternoon. Heading into tonight, with the loss of diurnal heating, shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually diminish as the evening progresses across the region and the winds will become light and variable across most areas. The only exception to this will be over the local waters and the Gulf coastal areas, where additional shower and thunderstorm activity may be possible overnight. Low temperatures tonight will generally drop into the lower to mid 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region and into the upper 70s to around 80 along the coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 102 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Early morning analysis shows a stalled surface front across northern FL and stretching along the SE US coast, with several weak areas of low pressure along the boundary. This boundary will gradually diminish by late in the day before another frontal boundary associated with a system in eastern Canada approaches the southeast US by late in the day Monday. S/SW flow will be a bit stronger today compared to the past few days, which latest hi-res guidance suggests will prevent the development of an east coast sea-breeze. Forecast soundings and HREF show PWAT values of 2-2.2 inches today with deep moisture throughout the column. Widely scattered showers and storms this morning will become more numerous across South FL this afternoon into early evening. A few strong storms will be possible with gusty winds the primary threat. Localized urban and poor drainage flooding will be possible again today with the expected high rainfall rates. WPC has the lake Okeechobee region in a marginal risk for excessive rain, but there will be a limited threat across the east coast metro as well. High temps today will range from around 90 near the lake to low/mid 90s over the rest of South FL. Max heat indices over 100 are expected and may approach advisory criteria briefly, however convection in the afternoon should prevent the need for any headlines. Convection decreases this evening and overnight but remaining mild across the area. Low temps will range from the middle 70s around the lake to upper 70s and around 80 across the rest of South FL. Overall similar pattern expected for Monday, however the westerly flow will be lighter which should help the development of the east coast sea-breeze during the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again peak during the afternoon and early evening hours, with the highest chances north of Alligator Alley. High temps on Monday will range from the low to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 102 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 The frontal boundary over the SE US will continue to sag southward eventually stalling just north of Lake Okeechobee through the remainder of the week and into the start of next weekend. A return to a more easterly low level flow regime is expected, which will shift the highest PoPs each day to the interior and SW FL during the afternoon and early evening hours, and widely scattered coastal showers during the overnight hours each night. Temperatures during the extended will continue to be above normal with highs in the low to mid 90s each day and low temps ranging from the low/mid 70s over the interior to upper 70s and around 80 closer to the coasts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue to develop this afternoon bringing the potential for periods of MVFR and IFR mainly across the east coast terminals during this time frame. A general WSW wind around 10 to 15 kts will continue this afternoon across all terminals before becoming light and variable this evening. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible this afternoon as thunderstorms move over the terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 102 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Gentle to moderate S/SW breeze expected through Monday across the local waters. Seas generally 2-4 feet in the Atlantic and 2 ft or less in the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms each day may result in locally higher winds and seas. && .BEACHES... Issued at 102 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Lingering NE swell will result in a high risk of rip currents for the Palm Beach and Broward county beaches today, with an elevated risk for the Miami-Dade beaches. A moderate westerly flow will result in an elevated risk of rip currents today for the Gulf beaches. An elevated risk will remain for the east coast beaches through early this upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 94 79 92 / 30 40 20 40 West Kendall 77 94 77 93 / 20 40 10 40 Opa-Locka 78 94 79 94 / 30 50 20 50 Homestead 78 92 77 92 / 20 30 10 40 Fort Lauderdale 78 92 79 91 / 30 50 30 50 N Ft Lauderdale 78 92 79 92 / 30 50 30 50 Pembroke Pines 78 94 79 95 / 30 50 20 50 West Palm Beach 77 92 77 92 / 30 70 30 60 Boca Raton 77 94 77 94 / 30 60 30 50 Naples 79 91 79 92 / 40 50 10 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM....CMF AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC