837
FXUS62 KMFL 191515
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1015 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

The fog has generally lifted across most areas as southwesterly
wind flow has increased. There still could be some lingering areas
of fog over the Gulf waters for the next hour or two, however, it
will become more patchy as the rest of the morning progresses. The
cold front currently over Central Florida will continue to push
southeastward throughout the day. Out ahead of this front, a
breezy southwesterly wind flow will continue across most areas
through the rest of the day as winds could gust up to 30 mph in
spots before the front comes through. Scattered showers will be
possible right ahead of the front and there will be just enough
lift and instability to support an isolated thunderstorm or two
mainly over the Lake Okeechobee region. This will be due to this
timing of the front passing through as peak diurnal heating will
be present. High temperatures today out ahead of the front will
remain warm as they will range from the upper 70s along the coast
of Southwest Florida to the mid 80s across portions of the east
coast metro areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 204 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

It`s a foggy start to the morning as satellite imagery and FLDOT
cameras show areas of dense fog blanketing large stretches of
the Gulf waters and interior/southwest FL.  As a result, visibilities
may drop to a quarter of a mile or less during the late night and
early morning hours. To that effect, a Dense Fog Advisory has
 been issued for much of South Florida (excepting the East Coast
metro), in effect until 10AM.

Unsettled weather returns later today as an area of low pressure
over the Carolinas drags a weakening cold front across the Florida
peninsula. Chances for rain will increase to the 40-50% range upon
its approach this evening, with the highest chances forecast for the
Lake Okeechobee region. Models show upper level support remaining
well to our north as a mid-level longwave trough exits towards the
western Atlantic; nevertheless, a few isolated thunderstorms could
develop near the Lake region given enough lift and instability as
the front pushes into our area.

The front will continue to undergo frontolysis as it progresses across
South Florida overnight, with chances for rain drastically decreasing
for areas south of I-75 and the East Coast metro. Temperatures will
once again remain warm as flow remains southerly/southwesterly;
highs will reach the low to mid 80s during the afternoon, while lows
may dip to the low 60s (along the East Coast) and the low 50s
(over the interior).

The weakened boundary is then forecast to settle over the
Florida Straits on Monday as surface high builds over much
of the southeastern US and Florida. Cooler temperatures look
likely behind the front, with daytime highs peaking in the low 70s.
Enough instability and lingering moisture could result in some
rain activity developing over the southernmost portions of the
area (PoPs in the 20-30% range) throughout the day, especially
along and south of Alligator Alley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 204 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

Conditions across South Florida could deteriorate once again
on Tuesday and beyond as models continue to forecast a variety
of disturbances and frontal boundaries developing across the
continental US. However,  model uncertainty still remains high
regarding impacts to South Florida given the complexity of the setup.

Starting Monday night, a deepening positively tilted shortwave
trough will dig across the Great Plains and the southeast.
Near the surface, a mid-level disturbance and associated low
pressure area could develop over the Gulf of Mexico. This
system is forecast to move across the Florida peninsula some
time between Tuesday and Wednesday, but model ensembles
continue to show considerable spread in the timing (and to a
lesser extent, the intensity) of this solution. The GEFS promotes
a more progressive solution, in which trailing energy from the
shortwave trough would break off, resulting in a more delayed
and weaker Gulf low on its approach to the peninsula. However,
slower solutions keep the system a little more unified and bring
a more energetic system through Florida, with more rainfall
across South Florida as well.  At this time, a middle of the
road approach supports the more progressive solution with
a little less QPF (though still rainy) and a less potent Gulf low.

Beyond Wednesday the challenge becomes resolving the
strength (and to an extent the timing) of another series of
shortwaves emerging from the Northwest Territories and
superpositioning across the central CONUS by late week.
While the intensity and position of another western Atlantic
surface trough depends a lot on the above, models do favor
a continuing wet pattern and a developing trough Thursday
into Friday as we await the next frontal system.

As far as impacts are concerned, it`s pretty much just going to be
cloudy, rainy, and cool. Afternoon highs will remain in the 60s
across the Lake region and low 70s along the east coast, with
overnight lows around 50 near the lake and in the low to mid 60s
along the east coast. Total QPF amounts through the period will
average anywhere from an inch to 3 depending on the evolutions
mentioned above. So, impactful rain amounts are not expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

A combination of low clouds and fog will bring IFR conditions to
most of the terminals through around 14z. As SW winds begin to
increase this morning, the low clouds and fog will gradually lift
resulting in the return of VFR conditions to the region. Once the
SW winds increase, they will generally range between 15 and 20
kts with gusts generally ranging from 20 to 25 kts this afternoon
out ahead of an approaching front. Scattered showers will develop
right ahead of the front later this afternoon into this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

Winds will increase across all local waters today as a cold
front approaches the region. A fresh  southwesterly breeze
will lead to hazardous marine conditions across the outer
Atlantic waters this afternoon.  Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters this
afternoon. Behind the front, winds will shift and become northerly
tonight while increasing heading into the early portion of the week.
This could result in another period of hazardous marine
conditions during this time frame.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 204 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will develop across the Gulf Coast
beaches today as a cold front pushes through and winds become
north/northwesterly. The risk for rips along the Atlantic Coast may
become elevated near the start of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            84  61  69  63 /  10  40  40  30
West Kendall     85  59  70  61 /  20  40  40  30
Opa-Locka        85  60  70  62 /  20  40  40  30
Homestead        83  61  72  63 /  10  30  40  30
Fort Lauderdale  84  60  69  63 /  20  40  40  40
N Ft Lauderdale  84  60  68  62 /  20  40  30  40
Pembroke Pines   84  61  72  63 /  20  40  40  40
West Palm Beach  85  57  67  61 /  30  40  30  50
Boca Raton       84  58  69  62 /  20  40  30  40
Naples           77  54  64  53 /  60  10  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ670-671.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC