268
FXUS62 KMFL 101814
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
214 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

The broad surface low in the Gulf is still spinning away this
afternoon, and with daytime heating now in full swing, showers and
storms are developing just outside of the east coast metro areas
and pushing northwards. This trend should continue over the next
few hours, with the bulk of the activity remaining just outside of
the western suburbs of the Palm Beach, Broward and Miami Dade
metro areas as they wrap around the eastern side of the broad
circulation. Despite this, a few showers and storms over the
immediate metro areas cannot be ruled out over the next few hours.
Abundant moisture remains in place with satellite derived PWATs
estimating a maximum of 2.3", so plenty of deep moisture for very
efficient rain rates. Drier air is expected to filter across the
area shortly after sunset, which should allow for drier conditions
during the overnight period tonight. &&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Broad surface low pressure in the NE Gulf west of the Tampa Bay
area continues to be the main focus of showers and thunderstorms
this morning over the nearshore Gulf waters, as well as coastal
sections of SW Florida. Convergent S-SW low level flow along the
SW Florida Gulf coast will continue to focus locally heavy
rainfall across these areas for most of the morning, and made
minor upward adjustments to PoPs and cloud cover to account for
these short term trends. As has been the case early this morning
over the barrier islands of Lee County, will have to keep a close
eye on the potential for locally high rainfall amounts and
flooding in coastal Collier County this morning. The HREF LPMM
values from last night`s model run indicated isolated 3-4" rain
amounts along the Collier County coast, which is fairly consistent
with trends. Rainfall may gradually taper off along the Gulf coast
later this afternoon as the low slowly moves west, and this is
reflected in a slight lowering of PoPs late this afternoon.

Over the rest of South Florida, started off the morning with lower
PoPs, then gradually increasing shower/thunderstorm chances over
the Everglades towards midday as daytime heating should start
driving convective development. Outflows from the SW Florida
convection is also expected to enhance convection over interior
sections and spread east towards metro SE Florida during the
afternoon. How far east will the showers and thunderstorms spread
this afternoon will depend on how quickly the Atlantic ridge
builds into SE Florida. The western suburbs of SE Florida have a
higher chance of rain where the SE low level flow converges with
the westerly winds coming out of the Gulf convective complex, with
slightly lower chances along the Atlantic coast.

Tweaked temperatures downward a couple of degrees, mainly SW
Florida, due to extensive cloud cover and precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Abundant moisture in the presence of a stationary surface boundary
draped over the Florida peninsula will continue to promote
unsettled weather across South Florida today. Activity will begin
to develop across the Gulf waters and move inland across the
southwest Florida coastline early this morning. Showers and storms
will gradually propagate eastward across the interior and then,
later this evening, over the East Coast metro areas. With
overnight observed and forecast sounding PWATs in the 2.3-2.5"
inch range and light steering flow, there could be concerns for
isolated urban flooding across the East Coast metro, especially
for vulnerable areas and areas that have already received 4+
inches of rain over the weekend.

A return to our regular summertime pattern comes on Monday as
surface high begins to build in from the western Atlantic and PWAT
values drop to climatological normals. Light easterly-southeasterly
flow will set up, and chances for rainfall will once again be
dominated by diurnal heating and sea breeze dynamics, which will
favor scattered afternoon showers across the interior and southwest
Florida.

High temperatures will remain typical for this time of year as they
will rise up to the low 90s across most areas. Heat indices could
rise into the low 100s, however cloud coverage should help keep
conditions below advisory criteria. Balmy conditions overnight, with
lows in the upper 70s and upper 80s along the coasts, and low 70s
across the interior.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Surface high will remain in place across the western Atlantic Ocean
and the Florida peninsula, promoting light easterly-southeasterly
flow and seasonal afternoon showers each day. Activity will be sea
breeze driven and mostly clustered over interior and southwest
Florida. Temperatures will reach the low-mid 90s each afternoon and
there will be a marginal concern for heat indices nearing or
exceeding advisory values across the whole CWA. This possibility
will need to be monitored father as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Shower and thunderstorm development near east coast sites is
anticipated over the coming hours and TEMPOs are in place to
account for potential lower visibilities through the afternoon.
Drier air expected this evening with significantly reduced chances
for thunder after 00Z. Primarily dry conditions should prevail
most of the night. Tomorrow, additional showers and storms are
possible but with a return to more typical sea breeze driven
convection, activity should remain inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds continue today.
Gulf breezes will bring a shift to west-southwesterly winds over the
west coast each afternoon. Seas should remain around 1-2 ft, except
around thunderstorms, which could produce brief periods of rough
seas and gusty winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents across the Palm Beach and Broward
county beaches continues today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  91  81  92 /  50  50  30  60
West Kendall     77  91  79  92 /  50  50  20  60
Opa-Locka        78  93  80  94 /  50  40  20  60
Homestead        78  91  79  91 /  50  40  30  60
Fort Lauderdale  80  91  81  91 /  50  40  20  60
N Ft Lauderdale  80  91  81  92 /  60  40  20  60
Pembroke Pines   80  94  81  95 /  50  40  20  60
West Palm Beach  79  91  79  93 /  60  50  20  60
Boca Raton       79  93  80  93 /  60  50  20  60
Naples           76  93  77  94 /  60  70  40  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...Rizzuto