Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
642
FNUS54 KMEG 161920
FWFMEG
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for the MidSouth
National Weather Service Memphis TN
220 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
.DISCUSSION...
Significant severe weather is likely this afternoon across the
northern two-thirds of the region, with a lesser severe threat
across the southern third tonight. Significant hail, damaging
winds, and the potential for tornadoes, some strong, exists. The
cold front responsible for these storms will pass through the
region tonight. Tomorrow will be mostly clear with westerly winds.
Fire weather concerns will be limited as wetting rains and high
humidity remain through the end of the period with scattered
afternoon thunderstorms possible across northern Mississippi.
ARZ009-018-026>028-MOZ113-115-170915-
Clay-Craighead-Dunklin-Greene-Mississippi-Pemiscot-Poinsett-
220 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Tonight Sat Sat Night Sun
Cloud Cover Pcldy Mclear Pcldy Pcldy
Chance of Thunder (%) 50 0 50 50
Precip Chance (%) 60 50 60
Precip Type Tstms None Tstms Tstms
Precip Amount 0.34 0.00 0.28 0.35
Precip Duration (hrs) 2 2 6
Precip Begin 6 PM 7 PM Continuing
Precip End 11 PM Continuing Continuing
Temp (24h trend) 62 (-9) 87 (+2) 65 82
RH % (24h trend) 94 (-1) 41 (-25) 93 63
AM Wind 20ft (mph) W 6 SE 5
PM Wind 20ft (mph) SW 12 G24 W 7 Lgt/Var S 6
Mixing Hgt(m-agl) 1100 1000
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl) 3700 3300
Mixing Hgt(m-msl) 1200 1100
Mixing Hgt(ft-msl) 4000 3600
Transport Wnd (m/s) W 6 S 4
Transport Wnd (mph) W 14 S 9
Vent Index (m2/s) 7200 4400
Category Day 3 3
500m Mix Hgt Temp (F) 82 75
500m Tspt Wind (m/s) W 9 SE 6
500m Tspt Wind (mph) W 20 SE 14
Dispersion Index 32 36 10 23
Stability Class E B F B
Stagnation Index 2 3 3 3
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly
cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH
62 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly
cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny. Highs
in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 64 percent. South winds 10 to
15 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly
cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 70. Minimum RH
52 percent. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs around 70. Minimum RH 48 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. North winds
5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH
48 percent. Light and variable winds.
$$
ARZ035-036-048-049-058-170915-
Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-Phillips-St. Francis-
220 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Tonight Sat Sat Night Sun
Cloud Cover Pcldy Mclear Pcldy Pcldy
Chance of Thunder (%) 50 0 50 50
Precip Chance (%) 80 60 60
Precip Type Tstms None Tstms Tstms
Precip Amount 0.47 0.00 0.19 0.21
Precip Duration (hrs) 3 5 6
Precip Begin 6 PM 7 PM Continuing
Precip End 3 AM Continuing Continuing
Temp (24h trend) 65 (-10) 89 (+2) 68 85
RH % (24h trend) 99 (+4) 46 (-18) 99 62
AM Wind 20ft (mph) SW 4 S 4
PM Wind 20ft (mph) SW 9 G22 SW 4 Lgt/Var S 5
Mixing Hgt(m-agl) 1400 1100
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl) 4700 3700
Mixing Hgt(m-msl) 1500 1200
Mixing Hgt(ft-msl) 5000 3900
Transport Wnd (m/s) SW 5 S 5
Transport Wnd (mph) SW 10 S 12
Vent Index (m2/s) 7500 6000
Category Day 3 3
500m Mix Hgt Temp (F) 83 81
500m Tspt Wind (m/s) SW 9 SW 6
500m Tspt Wind (mph) SW 19 SW 14
Dispersion Index 30 28 11 22
Stability Class E B F B
Stagnation Index 3 3 3 2
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly
cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. South winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH
62 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy. Lows in the
lower 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny.
Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 63 percent. South winds 10 to
15 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly
cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH
52 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Northwest
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 49 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. North winds
around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH
49 percent. Light and variable winds.
$$
TNZ001>004-019>022-170915-
Benton TN-Carroll-Dyer-Gibson-Henry-Lake-Obion-Weakley-
220 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Tonight Sat Sat Night Sun
Cloud Cover Pcldy Mclear Pcldy Pcldy
Chance of Thunder (%) 70 0 30 50
Precip Chance (%) 80 30 50
Precip Type Tstms None Tstms Tstms
Precip Amount 0.65 0.00 0.18 0.15
Precip Duration (hrs) 3 1 2
Precip Begin 6 PM 1 AM Continuing
Precip End 1 AM Continuing Continuing
Temp (24h trend) 64 (-9) 86 (+1) 63 82
RH % (24h trend) 99 (+3) 42 (-23) 93 59
AM Wind 20ft (mph) W 6 Lgt/Var
PM Wind 20ft (mph) SW 10 G23 W 8 Lgt/Var S 4
Mixing Hgt(m-agl) 1200 1000
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl) 3900 3300
Mixing Hgt(m-msl) 1300 1100
Mixing Hgt(ft-msl) 4300 3700
Transport Wnd (m/s) W 9 S 3
Transport Wnd (mph) W 20 S 7
Vent Index (m2/s) 11700 3300
Category Day 4 2
500m Mix Hgt Temp (F) 80 75
500m Tspt Wind (m/s) W 14 W 6
500m Tspt Wind (mph) W 31 W 14
Dispersion Index 27 57 9 20
Stability Class E B F B
Stagnation Index 3 3 3 3
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly
cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny.
Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 62 percent. South winds 5 to
10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly
cloudy. Lows around 70. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny. Highs
in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 66 percent. South winds 10 to
15 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy.
Lows in the lower 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH
54 percent. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Minimum RH
50 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. North
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH
47 percent. Light and variable winds.
$$
TNZ048>055-088>091-170915-
Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Fayette-Hardeman-Haywood-Henderson-
Lauderdale-Madison-McNairy-Shelby-Tipton-
220 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Tonight Sat Sat Night Sun
Cloud Cover Pcldy Mclear Pcldy Pcldy
Chance of Thunder (%) 50 0 50 50
Precip Chance (%) 80 50 70
Precip Type Tstms None Tstms Tstms
Precip Amount 0.53 0.00 0.19 0.45
Precip Duration (hrs) 4 2 8
Precip Begin 6 PM 7 PM Continuing
Precip End 3 AM Continuing Continuing
Temp (24h trend) 64 (-10) 87 (+1) 64 84
RH % (24h trend) 100 (+4) 43 (-20) 99 61
AM Wind 20ft (mph) SW 5 Lgt/Var
PM Wind 20ft (mph) SW 10 G22 W 6 Lgt/Var S 4
Mixing Hgt(m-agl) 1300 1100
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl) 4300 3700
Mixing Hgt(m-msl) 1400 1300
Mixing Hgt(ft-msl) 4700 4100
Transport Wnd (m/s) W 7 SW 4
Transport Wnd (mph) W 16 SW 8
Vent Index (m2/s) 9800 5200
Category Day 4 3
500m Mix Hgt Temp (F) 81 78
500m Tspt Wind (m/s) W 12 SW 7
500m Tspt Wind (mph) W 28 SW 16
Dispersion Index 27 46 8 21
Stability Class E B E B
Stagnation Index 3 3 3 2
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly
cloudy. Lows around 70. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...A chance of showers. Partly sunny. Highs in the upper
80s. Minimum RH 60 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy. Lows in the
lower 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny. Highs
in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 64 percent. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly
cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH
53 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 70. Minimum RH 50 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. North
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH
47 percent. Light and variable winds.
$$
MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020-021-170915-
Coahoma-Desoto-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica-Yalobusha-
220 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Tonight Sat Sat Night Sun
Cloud Cover Mcldy Mclear Pcldy Pcldy
Chance of Thunder (%) 50 0 50 50
Precip Chance (%) 80 10 50 60
Precip Type Tstms None Tstms Tstms
Precip Amount 0.47 0.00 0.24 0.14
Precip Duration (hrs) 5 2 5
Precip Begin 6 PM 7 PM Continuing
Precip End 5 AM Continuing Continuing
Temp (24h trend) 66 (-10) 90 (+2) 68 87
RH % (24h trend) 100 (+6) 53 (-8) 99 61
AM Wind 20ft (mph) SW 5 S 4
PM Wind 20ft (mph) SW 9 G21 SW 4 Lgt/Var S 5
Mixing Hgt(m-agl) 1300 1200
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl) 4400 3800
Mixing Hgt(m-msl) 1400 1200
Mixing Hgt(ft-msl) 4600 4100
Transport Wnd (m/s) SW 5 S 5
Transport Wnd (mph) SW 10 S 12
Vent Index (m2/s) 7000 6000
Category Day 3 3
500m Mix Hgt Temp (F) 81 82
500m Tspt Wind (m/s) SW 7 SW 6
500m Tspt Wind (mph) SW 15 SW 14
Dispersion Index 25 30 11 22
Stability Class D B F B
Stagnation Index 3 3 3 2
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. South winds
around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH
60 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. South winds
5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny.
Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 63 percent. South winds 10 to
15 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly
cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH
54 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Northwest
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 51 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. North winds
5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 49 percent.
Light and variable winds.
$$
MSZ002>006-009-013>017-022>024-170915-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Calhoun-Chickasaw-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
Marshall-Monroe-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Tippah-Tishomingo-Union-
220 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Tonight Sat Sat Night Sun
Cloud Cover Mcldy Pcldy Pcldy Pcldy
Chance of Thunder (%) 50 0 40 50
Precip Chance (%) 80 40 70
Precip Type Tstms None Tstms Tstms
Precip Amount 0.42 0.00 0.14 0.20
Precip Duration (hrs) 5 2 8
Precip Begin 6 PM 7 PM Continuing
Precip End 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Temp (24h trend) 65 (-9) 90 (+3) 67 87
RH % (24h trend) 100 (+5) 46 (-12) 100 58
AM Wind 20ft (mph) SW 4 Lgt/Var
PM Wind 20ft (mph) SW 7 G18 SW 5 Lgt/Var S 4
Mixing Hgt(m-agl) 1300 1200
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl) 4400 4000
Mixing Hgt(m-msl) 1500 1300
Mixing Hgt(ft-msl) 4800 4400
Transport Wnd (m/s) W 5 SW 4
Transport Wnd (mph) W 12 SW 9
Vent Index (m2/s) 7500 5200
Category Day 3 3
500m Mix Hgt Temp (F) 80 83
500m Tspt Wind (m/s) SW 7 W 5
500m Tspt Wind (mph) SW 15 W 12
Dispersion Index 24 35 9 26
Stability Class E B F B
Stagnation Index 3 3 3 1
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 70. South winds around
5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH
56 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. South winds
around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny.
Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 61 percent. South winds 5 to
10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly
cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH
54 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Northwest
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH
48 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Northwest
winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 47 percent.
Light and variable winds.
$$