093
FXUS64 KMEG 092345
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
545 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 242 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

An occluding cold front will bring the potential for showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms tonight into Sunday. Rain chances will
gradually diminish later Sunday into Sunday night as high pressure
builds back into the region for early next week. Additional rain
chances are possible Wednesday into Wednesday night as another
cold front moves through the Mississippi Valley. Mainly above
normal temperatures are expected for the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends show a stacked upper-level
low over central Nebraska this afternoon. Latest surface analysis
shows a surface low across the same aforementioned area with an
occluding front extending from the low back into western sections
of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Regional WSR-88D radar trends
indicate numerous to widespread showers affecting much of the
Mid-South. Temperatures as of 2 PM CST range from the upper 50s
north, and upper 60s to lower 70s south.

Additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorm are possible
tonight with a presence of a low-level jet across the region. The
better chances should be on Sunday as there should be slightly
better instability ahead of the occluding front. Confidence in
strong to severe thunderstorm potential remains low due to poor
mid-level lapse rates, relatively weak upper-level support, and
the potential for surface-based instability to be limited if
broken to overcast skies persist across the area on Sunday.

Surface and upper-level ridging will build in behind the front for
early next week. Long range model trends indicate the next
potential for rain showers may occur Wednesday into Wednesday
night as a mid-level trough axis moves through the Mississippi
Valley. The ECMWF ensembles are slightly wetter and more amplified
than the CMC and GEFS solutions. Temperatures will be slightly
cooler behind the next system but will mostly remain above normal
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

A mix of conditions to begin this TAF set. JBR will see the worst
conditions through the overnight hours with mainly LIFR conds.
Elsewhere, MVFR and IFR should be the rule. SHRAs will be on and
off overnight becoming more widespread tomorrow morning and early
afternoon with a cold front passage. Introduced thunder at nearly
all sites along the front. Winds will slowly shift from easterly
to southerly and eventually westerly with the frontal passage.

Rapidly improving conditions are expected behind the front or near
the end of the period.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AC3