912
FXUS64 KMEG 081802
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
102 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 102 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

- Hot and humid conditions will continue through the next seven
  days or so, with afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s and low
  100s. Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms will help
  provide brief relief in daytime heat indices.

- There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms today, mainly
  along and north of Interstate 40. The primary risk will be
  damaging winds and a localized flash flooding threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

A typical summer day is underway with temperatures currently in the
mid to upper 80s. A weak shortwave is slowly pivoting across the Mid-
South sparking showers and thunderstorms north of I-40. In addition
to showers and thunderstorms, advancing cloud coverage is generally
providing a brief relief in scorching conditions as air temperatures
are hovering slightly cooler than 24 hours ago.

Peak daytime heating combined with lift from the aforementioned
shortwave, opens a marginal severe weather window this afternoon and
evening. Latest surface analysis depicts roughly 1500-2000 J/kg of
mixed layer and surface based CAPE. While there is ample
instability, there is nil shear and mid-level lapse rates are
negligible. Nonetheless, a quick microburst bringing some strong
winds is not off the table for areas along and north of I-40.
Localized flooding is something to monitor as PWs today hover around
2", which is in the 90th percentile for this time of year. This
shortwave weakens significantly after sunset leaving isolated to
scattered coverage into the overnight hours.

As the shortwave is impinged on due to a 598 dam ridge over the
Four Corners region, severe weather chances are squashed and
largely diurnally driven PoPs reign for the rest of the week. A
storm or two could go rogue, but any afternoon storms should
remain sub- severe through the work week.

A soggy weekend is in store as a deep, positively tilted trough will
track across the Great Lakes Region beginning Friday. The origin and
track of this trough will allow for a more zonal pattern aloft,
which favors embedded shortwaves continuing rain chances through the
weekend. Probabilities from the NBM are low (less than 20%) for 24
hour accumulations exceeding 1" through the weekend. PW values are
expected to return to near climatology for this weekend, which
should limit any flooding concerns through early next week.


DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Midday GOES visible imagery showed the main convective corridor
extending from northeast AR through far northwest TN. To the east
and south of this corridor, daytime cumulus was slow to develop,
suggesting stronger convective inhibition. This inhibition should
weaken with surface heating and the approach of a weak upper level
trough. TSRA chances remain at all TAF sites, but likely delayed
a few hours at MEM, MKL and TUP relative to recent days.

Lower atmosphere should stabilize post-sunset, with VFR and light
winds expected for the late evening MEM inbound push.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Seasonal warm and humid conditions will prevail through the
upcoming weekend. Wetting rainfall will be possible each day, but
most likely during the middle to late part of this week. 20 foot
winds will remain light, except with thunderstorm outflows.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB