Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
071 FXUS64 KMEG 241648 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - Rain-free weather is expected today with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. - A cold front will swing through the Mid-South tonight into Monday and deliver our first taste of fall weather. - Starting on Monday, the forecast will feature below normal temperatures. Lows will dip into the upper 50s and lower 60s each morning with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Few changes have occurred within this forecast cycle and the main weather story this week remains the arrival of cooler air. A seasonably deep upper trough current resides over the Great Lakes with broad northwesterlies across the central CONUS. A cold front also exists underneath these winds and is currently entering the region as of this morning, ushering in drier, cooler air in its wake. Therefore, highs today will be the warmest of the forecast in the mid 80s to around 90. Very dry air aloft and subsidence will keep precipitation out of the region while the front passes. Troughing is expected to remain across the eastern CONUS through next week with a strong area of surface high pressure locking in the cooler air. Continued cold air advection will allow highs to drop into the 70s Tuesday across the majority of the region. Highs will begin to gradually increase throughout the remainder of the week, but will only reach back into the mid 80s. Additionally, this air mass will be anomalously dry. Dew points are expected to bottom out in the 50s, potentially in the 40s, for several days. This will also allow for lows to dip into the 50s low 60s throughout the week. In terms of precipitation, Tuesday appears to be the regions next chance for some rain. Weak isentropic ascent over the stalled front across the southern CONUS will result in some showers developing over the OK/KS border Monday. Model guidance shows this feature slowly shifting south and east into Tuesday, losing some of its strength in the meantime. Therefore, by its arrive on Tuesday, rain should be only occur in the form of light to moderate stratiform showers across western portions of the area. On Thursday and Friday, PoPs increase once more as the surface high shifts east and the axis of isentropically-generated rainfall moves with it. However, there is still uncertainty regarding the coverage and location of rain fall with medium-range guidance displaying a variety of solutions. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 VFR. North winds picking up a bit this afternoon behind a nice late August cold front. North winds will relax overnight and persist tomorrow. Sirmon && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Elevated fire weather concerns will begin throughout the period as a reinforcing cold front reduces minRH considerably starting Monday. Dew points will struggle to climb into the 60s, pulling minRH values down below 40, and perhaps 30, percent throughout the week. This is in tandem with drying fuels with some areas beginning to see increasing drought severity. With that said, winds will be light which should keep major fire concerns at bay. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...JDS