500
FXUS64 KMEG 161743
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1241 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

- Significant river flooding continues across much of the Mid-South.

- Cooler temperatures be present again today. A warming trend will begin
  tomorrow and continue through the end of the week.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to return to
  the Mid-South Friday night and continue through early next week
  as the weather pattern becomes unsettled. Severe weather will
  be possible this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Late morning surface analysis places a 1022 mb surface high over
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast United
States. This is resulting in sunny skies and temperatures in the
lower 60s as of 10 AM CDT. 925 mb temperatures are expected to
warm to 13-14C, translating to highs in the lower 70s across most
locations. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to range
between 20-30 percent this afternoon. Forecast remains in
excellent shape and no update necessary at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

A cooler night is present across the Mid-South with current
temperatures in the low 40s to low 50s with mostly calm winds at
the surface. A dry airmass remains fixed over the region with
existing clear skies. We will stay entrenched under upper level
northwest flow and surface high pressure today, resulting in a
beautiful Spring day today with highs in the low to mid 70s. A
warming trend will begin tomorrow as upper level ridging begins
building in, increasing highs into the low to mid 80s. Areas along
the Tennessee and Kentucky stateline could see some sprinkles as
an isolated shower or two could form along an embedded shortwave
late tonight and into the early morning hours tomorrow.

Come Friday, a surface warm front will push across the area while in
the upper levels, southwest flow will build in. Thus, Friday will be
a warm one with highs in the mid to upper 80s. By Friday night, a
surface low pressure system will move across the upper Great
Lakes region, pushing a cold front into the Middle Mississippi
Valley. This front will stall along the Missouri and Kentucky
stateline while upper level ridging holds strong across areas
along and south of the interstate 40 corridor. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will move over areas north of I-40 as this front
stalls for much of the day Saturday.

Looking at Saturday evening, uncertainty exists with the onset,
timing, and intensity of showers and thunderstorms moving into
Sunday. A negatively tilted trough will eject from the four corners
region, pushing the aforementioned front across the rest of the
Mid-South. Uncertainty comes into play as to when the negatively
tilted trough interacts with the instability and moisture axis.
The GFS has the faster solution, pushing the main storm system
east of the Mid-South by early Monday morning. Whereas the EURO
has the main system not moving through until more Sunday afternoon
and into Monday morning. Therefore, be prepared for severe
weather beginning late Saturday evening and extending through
Sunday night. The best instability axis aligns Sunday morning into
early evening with joint probs greater than 50% for 700 J/kg of
SBCAPE and 30 kts of 0-6 km bulk wind shear and decent height
falls. The faster solution could pose a higher severe threat for
Sunday.

Forecast QPF amounts this weekend are upwards of 2 inches over
portions of the Missouri Bootheel and northeast Arkansas, and less
than half an inch along and south of I-40. Persistent river
flooding over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel will be
at risk with increased rainfall this weekend. Something to keep
an eye on.

High pressure and upper level quasi-zonal flow will follow behind
the aforementioned front Monday. By Tuesday, upper level ridging
will begin building in with a few embedded shortwaves, thus, very
isolated showers and thunderstorms could form along these. The
weather pattern will become unsettled mid-week next week. Stay
tuned..

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

This is largely a wind forecast as surface winds will vary between
southerly and southeasterly throughout the period. Light (and
occasionally variable) winds for the most part today will pick up
to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts from the south tomorrow mid
morning. VFR conditions with just a few cirrus clouds.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CAD