281
FXUS64 KMEG 140416
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1116 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1116 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

- Dry conditions are expected to continue through Friday. High
  temperatures will trend slightly warmer, reaching the mid 80s by
  Wednesday.

- Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast by Saturday as
  a cold front approaches the area. While uncertainty remains,
  there is a potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

High pressure continues to dominate the forecast. Cool nights
with temperatures generally in the 50s, will rise into the low to
mid 80s. This area of high pressure will weaken and slowly
traverse east allowing for a gradual rise in temperatures to the
mid to upper 80s by the end of the week.

A pattern change is on the horizon for the weekend ahead as a
deep trough and an attendant cold front swing down from the
northern Plains. High confidence exists for showers and
thunderstorms to impact the Mid-South this weekend; however, the
precise timing and severity of these storms remain uncertain.
LREF joint probs are between 30-60% along and west of the
Mississippi River to house ingredients favorable for severe
weather. Uncertainty shows as the GFS displays the trough much
weaker and the probabilities are less favorable. Not only is
there discrepancy between intensity, but timing is still fuzzy. A
few ensemble members favor this system to be quick moving and
arrive Saturday afternoon and clear shortly after midnight, while
other members favor Saturday evening into the overnight hours.
Nonetheless, this is the portion of the forecast to keep your
eyes on. Despite thunderstorm chances, with the potential to be
severe, the air behind this front appears to be significantly
cooler (in the 70s) by early next week.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR conditions continue under high pressure. Winds will generally
be from the N/NE between 7-10 kts with intermittent gusts up to
20 kts. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Dry conditions persist through Friday, with minRH values
remaining in the 30% to 40% range. Light winds are expected
through this timeframe, thus keeping the potential for major fire
danger concerns low.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...DNM