223
FXUS64 KMEG 180253
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
853 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends and regional WSR-88D VWP`s
show a weak and subtle 700 mb shortwave trough moving through
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, a weak
inverted surface trough was located from portions of east Texas to
central Louisiana. Weak isentropic ascent over the region
resulted in the development of a few isolated rain showers over
portions of east Arkansas and northwest Mississippi into early
this evening. This activity has since mostly dissipated with a
drier airmass in place across the Mid- South. Temperatures as of 8
PM are predominantly in the 60s.

A few isolated rain chances may still be possible over portions
of east/northeast Arkansas into early Monday morning. Otherwise,
mainly rain-free conditions are expected for the remainder of the
night. Will make some adjustments to rain chances along with cloud
cover to account for short-term trends. Otherwise, the remainder
of the forecast is in good shape.

CJC

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

A few showers may develop across northwest portions of the Mid-
South overnight, otherwise dry and warm weather is expected
through Monday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will move across
the region starting Monday night and continuing through Tuesday
afternoon. A second dry cold front will move through the region on
Wednesday. Much cooler air will be found behind this front with
lows Thursday through Saturday morning in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with
temperatures in the low to mid 70s. A cold front extends across
northern Missouri through western Oklahoma and into west Texas.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the
front tonight. Some of this activity could reach northwest
sections of the Mid-South overnight, but much of the region should
remain dry. Temperatures will be quite warm for mid-November with
lows Monday morning in the lower 50s to lower 60s. The cold front
will move into western Arkansas by Monday afternoon with any
showers and thunderstorms remaining west of the Mid-South.
Temperatures will remain warm on Monday with highs in the low to
mid 70s. The cold front will move into the Mid-South Monday
night. Showers and a few thunderstorms will form ahead of the
front and move across the region starting Monday night and
continuing through Tuesday afternoon.

The cold front should be out of the region by Tuesday night with
rain ending over eastern sections of the Mid-South. Cooler and
drier air will move in behind the front with lows Wednesday
morning in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees.

A second front will sweep through the region on Wednesday. Limited
moisture will be found ahead of this front so dry weather is expected.
Behind the second front, even colder air will start to move into
the region. Lows Thursday morning with be in the upper 30s to the
lower 40s. Dry weather and below normal temperatures will continue
from Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

VFR overnight and most of Monday. SE to S winds will strengthen
tomorrow ahead of a cold front and cigs will begin to lower. Added
LLWS for Monday evening with SHRAs moving in late in the period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...SJM