886
FXUS64 KMEG 061122
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
622 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

-Significant river flooding will continue into next week.

-Scattered showers and cooler temperatures are on tap for today.

-Cool and dry weather is expected Monday through Wednesday.

-Patchy frost is possible over the next couple of nights as lows
 drop into the 30s in some places.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

The severe threat has ended across northeast MS. The flash flood
threat continues across areas east of the MS attm. The threat will
gradually shift from flash flooding to areal flooding as the rain
ends from west to east and water is slow to recede.

Event rainfall totals as of 1 am CDT:

NWS Memphis (East Memphis) 14.07 inches
Memphis International 12.35 inches
West Memphis 10.00 inches
Jonesboro 8.75 inches
Blytheville 8.41 inches
Tupelo 2.66 inches

Surface low pressure and front are shifting into AL. Post frontal
rain continues across parts of West TN and NE MS but this is
rapidly shifting east. The upper trough will pivot through the
area today with scattered showers and much cooler temps. Highs
will range from around 50 northwest to the mid 60s southeast.
River flooding will continue to worsen today as 10-15 inches of
rain works its way through the system. Many roads will be flooded
across the region. Do not drive through flooded roadways.

Cool high pressure will build into the region early this week with
much below normal temperatures. Expect highs in the upper 50s and
lower 60s with lows in the 30s and lower 40s. Patchy frost is
possible in the typical colder areas. Looks like Tuesday morning
represents the best chance for frost and a Frost Advisory may be
needed.

Southerly winds return in advance of an upper trough digging
through the TN/OH valleys mid week. This will result in milder
temps Wed/Thu. The upper trough moving through will result in a
chance of showers across the region Thursday and Thursday night.

High pressure will build in for Friday and Saturday with cooler
temps. Expect highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. A return to
southerly flow should bring a milder end to next weekend with
highs back in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Rain chances will continue to diminish through midday at all
terminals. IFR CIGs will persist through the majority of the
period with MVFR conditions returning overnight. A brief period of
gusty winds may materialize this evening as a reinforcing front
swings across the Mid-South.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MSZ001>005-007-008-
     010>014-020.

     Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MSZ006-009-015>017-
     021>024.

TN...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ANS