787
FXUS64 KMEG 301519
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1019 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Another hot and humid day is on tap for the Mid-South. The good
news is that a cold front is moving south across the area this
morning. This front is currently located from near Batesville, AR,
to Blytheville, AR, to Huntingdon, TN. Conditions won`t be quite
as hot/humid in the wake of this boundary with dewpoints falling
into the 60s north of I-40 this afternoon. However, to the south,
we`re still looking at heat headlines through early evening.
Dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s, combined with afternoon
temperatures climbing into the 90s will yield heat indices on the
order of 105 to 113 degrees. The only changes to the previous heat
products were the additions of Cross County, AR, to the Heat
Advisory and Lee County, AR, to the Excessive Heat Warning.

Some areas within the advisory/warning areas will get some relief
from the heat this afternoon as scattered, diurnal convection
develops along and just south of the cold front. Coverage looks to
be somewhat limited with the HRRR indicating less coverage than
some of the other CAMs. Given the moisture in place and presence
of the cold front, will favor the wetter solutions today. Any
storms that develop should end by sunset as the cold front moves
south of the area and the boundary layer begins to stabilize.

MJ

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

One more day of hot and humid conditions for portions of the Mid-
South before a cold front sweeps through the region this evening.
Expect pleasant conditions on Monday as north winds return before
heat and humidity resume late Tuesday. Additional rain chances
exist for the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Expect hot and humid conditions to come to a close today as a cold
front, currently situated over southwest Kentucky, pushes into
the Mid-South. As of 3AM, showers and storms continue to develop
ahead of the aforementioned boundary with the bulk of activity
centered along the Mississippi River. Over the next few hours,
expect showers and storms to dissipate with areas south of I-40
remaining mostly dry through sunrise.

Unfortunately, heat indices above 105F & 109F remain likely today
for areas in eastern Arkansas, southwest Tennessee, and north
Mississippi. As such, a Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning
will go into effect at 10AM with areas in the Mississippi Delta
included in the Excessive Heat Warning. One caveat to this
forecast: the potential for redevelopment of showers and storms
this afternoon. Any storms that do develop will be scattered in
nature, but have the potential to cool areas below heat headline
criteria. Overall confidence for location and timing of
redevelopment remains low, hence the continuation of heat
headlines.

By Monday, much drier air will filter into the Mid-South with
dewpoints dropping to the 60s. This relief will be brief as south
winds resume on Tuesday, advecting higher dewpoints back to the
Mid-South. Heat headlines will likely resume on Wednesday as
afternoon temperatures reach the mid 90s. However, long term
guidance continues to hint at a pattern change towards the end of
the week as several shortwave troughs impact the region. Daily
chances for showers and storms will resume on Thursday with more
widespread rainfall anticipated this upcoming weekend.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. A
line of TSRA may develop this afternoon, but confidence in
location is low. Have included VCTS for MEM/MKL and a tempo group
for TUP where confidence is a bit higher than the TN airports.
Winds will become northerly over the next few hours, generally up
to around 10 kts through the afternoon.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ035-036-048.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ049-
     058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>006-009-
     013>017-023-024.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-
     008-010>012-020>022.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ088>092.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CMA