Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
742 FXUS64 KMEG 052320 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 620 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 618 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 - A slight warming trend will begin on Wednesday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1027 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 A large upper level ridge will continue to impact the southwest United States over the next several days. Guidance continues to show this ridge amplifying to 600 dam by Wednesday afternoon, spreading further east towards the Mid-South. As a result, a slight warming trend will be evident through the end of the week with afternoon highs reaching the low and mid 90s by Thursday. Spotty showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, but overall precipitation probabilities remain less than 15 percent. Fortunately, the center of the aforementioned ridge will remain parked over the TX/NM border through the weekend, placing the Mid- South in northwest flow aloft. Dewpoints will remain manageable: in the upper 60s to low 70s. As a result, heat headlines are not anticipated as heat indices remain below 105 degrees. Additional warming is forecast for next week as a new area of high pressure forms near the Florida Panhandle. Heat indices will increase by next Tuesday, which may necessitate a Heat Advisory. ANS && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Isolated showers may persist at MEM through 01Z. The potential exists for MVFR ceilings to develop again at TUP towards sunrise Wednesday. However, the coverage shouldn`t be as widespread as the past couple of nights with the upper-level trough shifting east overnight into Wednesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds are expected to prevail at TAF sites through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1027 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Fire weather concerns are not anticipated this period as light 20ft winds and MinRH values above 50 percent persist. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...CJC