882
FXUS64 KMEG 030652
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
152 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

- Warm and dry for Independence Day. High temperatures in the low
  to middle 90s.

- Heat and humidity will build each day through the weekend. Rain
  chances will remain low (less than 15%) through the weekend
  before increasing again next week (30%-40%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Summertime. A persistence forecast is the best forecast model this
time of year. A broad ridge is in place across the western 2/3 of
the CONUS with a weak trough to the east. The ridge will shift
over the Mississippi River Valley by Independence Day keeping the
Midsouth dry as temperatures trend warmer. A 592dm ridge and
surface high pressure will result in high temperatures in the low
to middle 90s Friday under clear skies. Fortunately, the cold
front that moved across the Midsouth earlier in the week will
keep the oppressive humidity at bay for the next 36 hours or so.
Get out and mow your grass today if you get a chance so you can
enjoy the festivities Friday evening.

Weak return flow will begin Friday night as high pressure shifts
over the Ohio Valley. The aforementioned ridge will weaken
slightly and shift along an axis from west New York into South
Alabama during the same timeframe. A weak trough will approach
the middle Mississippi River Valley Sunday which could bing a few
showers to the Midsouth, but I wouldn`t get my hopes up for
significant rainfall.

Early next week, guidance suggests rain chances will increase a
bit +across the Midsouth (30%-40%) along with slightly cooler
temperatures. By Tuesday, NBM probability of high temperatures
above 90 degrees is only 65-75%. Comparatively, those percentages
are 95-100% over the weekend. Our best shot at widespread rain
looks to be Tuesday afternoon.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A persistence aviation forecast, with a continental surface high
pressure over the Midsouth bringing continued light winds. Broken
cirrostratus deck may thin sufficiently for occasional MVFR VIS
near sunrise. Otherwise, VFR will prevail through the next 30
hours.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

No fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Minimum
relative humidity values will trend higher each day with light 20
foot winds. Expect high temperatures in the low to middle 90s. No
wetting rain is expected through at least Saturday.


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JDS