Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
398 FXUS64 KMEG 161627 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1127 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1127 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - A warming trend will continue through late week, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s on Friday. - A cold front will pass through the Mid-South Saturday night, bringing the threat of strong to severe storms. Damaging winds and localized flash flooding are the primary concerns. - Temperatures will cool significantly Sunday and into the beginning of next week with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1127 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Calm weather continues today as ridging persists over the southern CONUS. This ridge will move east today and tomorrow, allowing for similar conditions to continue. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with dry weather. Overnight lows will also remain in the 50s. Ridging will begin to leave the region Saturday ahead of a trough exiting into the Plains. Surface troughing will amplify across the central CONUS in response, promoting moisture advection throughout the Mid-South. With time, a lead wave from this trough will make it to the region. Height falls associated with this feature, alongside increasing instability, will kick off thunderstorm development sometime Saturday afternoon. Guidance is still not all on the same page regarding the timing of when storms will arrive with storms arriving anywhere from Saturday afternoon to overnight into Sunday. Regardless, a persistent line of convection appears likely to move through the region sometime Saturday evening, lasting into early Sunday morning. The environment in place ahead of this convection is expected to be supportive of severe weather, but guidance is still split on exactly how the environment will evolve through the day. What is consistent is the storm mode, which appears to take the form of a persistent MCS propagated by either a cold front or strong cold- pooling. Weak (~500-750 J/kg) surface instability, in combination with strong upper level support, will allow for a damaging wind threat with these storms as they pass through the region. Mid- level lapse rates will generally fall below 7 C/km, diminishing the overall magnitude of the hail threat. The forecast is much more uncertain regarding a tornado threat, especially given the uncertainties in the overall thermodynamic environment. This is compounded with significant variance in the low level shear and moisture profiles amongst guidance. Therefore, a larger tornado threat could materialize, but won`t be clear until we get closer to the event. SPC has outlined the most likely area to see the best combination of these ingredients as a slight risk along and west of the Mississippi River. Upper troughing will continue to amplify across the central CONUS into Sunday. A cold front will sweep through the region through Sunday morning, bringing strong CAA and cooler weather through Tuesday. The upper pattern will be highly progressive with a new trough passing through the central CONUS by Tuesday, bringing a second cold front. Guidance suggested that another chance for showers and storms. This forecast is highly dependent on how far north any moisture return will make it which is very uncertain at this time. After the second cold front Tuesday night, cooler temperatures and dry weather are then forecast through the rest of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. East winds between 6-9 kts will become light this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1127 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Low fire danger through this weekend as minimum relative humidity values remain above 30 percent with light 20 ft winds. The next chance for wetting rains returns Saturday afternoon with a 80%-90% chance of storms through early Sunday morning. Some storms could be severe, especially along and west of the Mississippi River. A cold front will then pass, drying out the area Sunday, dropping minimum relative humidity values to near 30 percent into next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...CJC