904
FXUS64 KMEG 272313
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
613 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

-Mostly dry conditions will prevail through Friday.

-Unsettled weather will begin Saturday with temperatures on a bit
 of a roller coaster for the next week.

-Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend, with at
 least a 15% chance of severe weather Sunday night into Monday.

-Dry weather is expected Monday and Tuesday with chances for
 showers and thunderstorms increasing toward the middle and end
 of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

A beautiful spring day is underway across the Mid-South with
mostly sunny skies and temps around 80 degrees this afternoon. A
light southerly wind is starting advect moisture northward and
dewpoints have started to climb.

A weak warm air advection regime will be in place through Friday
with gradually increasing moisture. Clouds will increase across
the area tonight with mild overnight lows in the upper 50s and
lower 60s. A few light showers are possible on Friday as a subtle
disturbance moves through. Highs will be a bit cooler than today
due to more cloud cover.

Another upper level disturbance will lift north from the Texas
Gulf Coast on Friday night bringing a wave of showers north into
the Mid-South after midnight continuing through the day on
Saturday and perhaps into Saturday night. Some isolated thunder
is possible but mid level lapse rates are poor. The severe weather
risk continues to look quite low.

By Sunday a broad warm sector will be in place across a large part
of the southern U.S. into the Mid MS and OH Valleys. Much of the
day is likely to be warm, humid and mostly rain free. A cold
front will approach from the northwest later in the day. A mid
level trough is expected to move out of the southern Rockies and
lift through the Mid MS Valley Sunday evening which will provide
the lift to initiate storms along and ahead of the front. Those
are the broad strokes. There are details to be more worked out
with respect to timing, geographical area and storm mode.
However, 0-6km shear values of 40-50 kts and SBCAPES invof 1500
J/kg will certainly support organized severe weather across the
Mid-South Sunday evening into the overnight with all hazards in
play.

High pressure will build in for the early part of the week with
some cooler temps and a much drier airmass for Monday and Tuesday.
Southerly flow and warmer temps return by mid week with unsettled
weather likely along with a potential severe weather threat as
another front approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

VFR conditions throughout the TAF period. While there could be
some light showers tomorrow morning and afternoon across the
airspace, there is not enough confidence to include at any TAF
sites currently. Southerly winds around 7 kts overnight,
increasing to around 10 to 15 kts with gusts upwards of 20 kts
after 16Z.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CMA