913
FXUS64 KMEG 091927
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
227 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025

- Rain chances will be confined mainly to north Mississippi
  through Saturday with dry weather over the remainder of the Mid-
  South.

- Rain chances spread over the entire area Saturday night through
  Tuesday as an upper low tracks across the area.

- A significant warming trend will occur by late next week. Our
  first 90 degree day is right around the corner.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025

Low clouds are slowly lifting and breaking up across the Mid-
South this afternoon. Temps range from the upper 60s under the
cloud deck centered roughly along I-40 to the mid to upper 70s
where the sun has broken out. Nothing has developed yet across
north MS yet but we cannot rule out a shower or two this
afternoon.

The upper trough that extends from the Mid Atlantic states into
the Lower MS Valley is in the process of breaking in two pieces.
The main piece of energy is headed toward the NE Atlantic coast
with the Lower MS Valley piece cutting off into an upper low. This
upper low will remain stationary over the Lower MS Valley for
much of the weekend. Showers associated with this system will work
north tonight and Saturday and cover much of north MS by the end
of the day. Showers will continue to spread north across the
remainder of the Mid-South as pieces of energy rotate around the
upper low and eventually the low itself starts moving north Sunday
night into Monday. Rain does not look particularly heavy though
totals will likely reach 2-3 inches across NE MS by Tuesday
afternoon as the system will be quite slow moving. No severe
weather is expected.

The upper low will exit the region by mid week and upper ridging
will build into the area with unseasonably warm temps and
increasing humidity levels. Many places have a medium chance
(45%-65%) of hitting 90 degrees for the first time this season by
the end of next week. An upper trough moving through the Plains
at the end of the week could push a front toward the Mid-South
along with a chance of showers an thunderstorms by Friday into
next weekend. However, confidence in timing and placement is low
this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025

Low stratus continues to linger across the airspace this
afternoon. However, the latest satellite imagery suggests MVFR
CIGs will return to VFR in the next few hours. Overnight, expect
rain chances to increase near TUP with a rain shield slowly
spreading northwest towards MEM by midday Saturday. Thunder
concerns remain too low to mention in TAF at this time. Otherwise,
expect north winds to remain elevated, occasionally gusting to
24kts on Saturday.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ANS