517
FXUS64 KMEG 071756 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1256 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1248 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

- An active weather pattern will continue through the remainder of
  the weekend. The primary concerns will be damaging winds, large
  hail, and heavy rainfall.

- Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue into next
  week.

- Temperatures will cool into the lower to middle 80s by early
  week but return back to near normal into the middle to upper 80s
  by late next week. Lows will average in the middle 60s to near
  70 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

GOES Water Vapor satellite depict an MCS moving across eastern
Oklahoma and into western Arkansas early this morning. Regional
WSR-88D radar trends show the leading edge of a line of showers
and thunderstorms over northwest and central Arkansas. Meanwhile,
a quasi-stationary surface boundary extends across portions of
the Lower Mississippi Valley north of I-40. Temperatures are in
the 70s areawide across the Mid-South.

The aforementioned MCS is anticipated to weaken early this
morning. It will transition into an MCV as it moves into the Mid-
South towards mid-morning. Moderate to strong instability,
moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, and 0-6 km Bulk Shear in
excess of 40 kts will favor the development of severe
thunderstorms across the forecast area later this morning into the
afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail will remain the
predominant severe weather threats. A tornado or two is possible
with sufficient speed and directional shear. Precipitable water
values approaching 2 inches will also favor the potential of
localized heavy rainfall. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
possible later this evening into early Sunday morning as a weak
cold front drops into the area. Short-term model soundings
indicate tonight`s activity may be elevated if it even occurs.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday,
mainly across north Mississippi as moderate instability develops
across the region. Shear is expected to be much lower with the
severe thunderstorm threat being more conditional during peak
daytime heating. The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms
will persist into Monday as another shortwave trough rotates
through the Mississippi Valley.

Mid/long-range deterministic and ensemble model solutions
continue to indicate the front washing out across the Lower
Mississippi Valley early next week. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will decrease into Tuesday but gradually return towards
mid to late next week as a mid-level trough moves into the Southern
Plains. Temperatures for early next week will start in the lower
to middle 80s, then increasing into the upper 80s to around 90
degrees by late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Strongly forced line of TSRA east of TUP will push off into AL in
the short term. No further afternoon TSRA concerns the TAF sites.

Some of the short term guidance suggests a convective outflow
boundary will lift into north MS in the early evening, serving as
a focus for isolated TSRA. Confidence in this scenario is low,
given the extensive airmass modification from earlier storms.
Given the arrival of marginal upper level support, the 18Z MEM TAF
maintains a VCTS for the early evening. If TSRA develops it most
likely be over the southern portion of the TRACON, perhaps as near
as the 25SM vicinity range marker.

Widespread fog potential not anticipated overnight, given inflow
of drier air behind a weak cold front.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...PWB