413
FXUS64 KMEG 101153
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
553 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

A winter storm will impact the Mid-South with heavy snow across east
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and West Tennessee along with heavy
mixed precipitation across north Mississippi. Cold weather will
continue well into next week in the wake of the storm with travel
impacts likely for a few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday) Issued at 338 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

...Significant winter storm underway across the Mid-South...

Surface low pressure along the Gulf Coast will track ENE into
southern GA this evening while a potent mid level trough approaches
from the west. An inverted surface trough extending north from the
low will pivot through the region from 12z to 18z. Ample moisture
and lift will result in heavy winter precip this morning tapering
off from west to east this afternoon.

We have already seen 2 inches here at the office as of 0930z. Snow
continues to spread northeast with just a few parts of NW TN yet to
see flakes at this hour. Precip is all snow north of a Tunica to
Tupelo line with sleet and perhaps a little freezing rain mixed in
to the south of that line. The concern today is two fold. How much
warm air pushes north with the inverted surface trough and what are
the resultant precip types? How heavy will the snow be in the area
that remains all snow?

Looking at the latest hi-res data suggests the low level warm air
will make it to near the TN/MS line this morning perhaps edging into
parts of West TN near the TN River. Expect a decent amount of sleet
and a little freezing rain across the southern tier of the forecast
area through at least 9 am before precip becomes all rain south of a
Tupelo to Clarksdale line. This sleet will cause plenty of travel
problems this morning. The further you travel north of that Tupelo
to Clarksdale line the more snow is expected with mostly all snow
north of the TN/MS line.

Snow intensity continues to increase across much of the area as the
dendritic growth zone is saturated and lift increases across the
region. Model soundings show good snowfall production across much of
the Memphis metro through 18z and until about 21z along the TN River
Valley. Upstream we are seeing 1/4SM vsbys in the Little Rock area.
This heavy snow will push toward the Mid-South this morning.

The corridor for max snowfall will be along and just north of the I-
40 corridor, including Memphis, with 6-8 inches likely. Locally
higher amounts are possible given the likelihood of banding across
much of the area as indicated by the latest HREF. The large flakes
and ideal temps will result in rapid accumulation as well.
Expect lesser amounts as you head south into north MS due to the low
level warm air mentioned earlier. Still expect 4-6 inches across
extreme north MS including DeSoto County. More sleet will
predominate south toward Clarksdale and Tupelo this morning.

Winter precip will wind down this afternoon with clouds lingering
tonight and temps dropping into the 20s which will freeze everything
solid. Saturday will be chilly will minimal melting followed by
another cold night with better radiational cooling and lows in the
teens. Sunday will see a little more of a thaw as winds turn
southerly ahead of the next cold front and temps climb into the mid
30s to lower 40s. Colder weather returns for early next week with
highs in the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s. The melt/freeze
cycle will likely extend well into next week with impacts to travel
likely for several days, at least on rural roads and bridges and
city sidewalks.  Milder weather finally returns by the end of the
week as arctic high pressure shifts east and milder, southerly flow
returns boosting temps into the 40s Thursday and Friday. Rain
chances look to increase by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Snow is already reducing visibilities to less than 1 mile and
will only continue to become heavier over the next several hours.
Expect the heaviest period to be between 15Z and 18Z today. TUP
is the only site with a potential for mixed precip, but looking
more like a sleet/snow mix transitioning to rain instead of FZRA
now. IFR to LIFR ceilings will accompany the snowfall through at
least midnight tonight, gradually lifting to MVFR and eventually
scattering out Saturday morning. Winds should remain light and
start northeasterly, backing to westerly throughout the period.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MOZ113-115.

MS...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MSZ001>008.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ009>017-
     020>024.

TN...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CAD