Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
292 FXUS64 KMEG 040423 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1123 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1123 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 - Pleasant weather will continue through Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. - Temperatures will begin to climb during the latter half of the week. Most triple digit heat indices will be confined to areas along and west of the Mississippi River. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Latest surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary boundary located from the northern Gulf Coast and up into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. Additionally, an inverted surface trough is located near the Tennessee River. GOES satellite trends indicate some mid- level clouds over Eastern Missouri and Arkansas associated with a mid-level shortwave trough beginning to move into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A combination of the aforementioned mid-level trough and an inverted surface trough may result in the development of shower and thunderstorm chances (20-30 percent) mostly along areas near the Tennessee River during peak heating into Tuesday. Temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s areawide during this period. Not much has changed in the forecast for the remainder of this week as long-range ensemble and deterministic models continue to show an upper-level ridge in the Central/Southern Plains building east into the Lower Mississippi Valley towards next weekend. A gradual increase in heat and humidity can be anticipated with highs rising into the lower to middle 90s by the weekend and heat index values beginning to rise between 100-104 degrees. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 A low pressure system will bring increased cu overnight with MVFR conditions impacting MKL/TUP. Fog is also expected at these terminals along a weak low-level inversion overnight. VFR conditions will return and fog will lift shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace. Variable winds will remain sub 10 kts over the next 30 hours or so. Isolated showers and thunderstorms look to impact MEM/TUP late tomorrow afternoon and into the evening hours. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1123 CDT PM Sun Aug 3 2025 No major fire weather concerns at this time. Minimum relative humidity values will remain between 45-55 percent. A chance (20-30 percent) of thunderstorms will be located mainly near the Tennessee River and northeast Mississippi through Wednesday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...AEH