667
FXUS64 KMEG 192224
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
524 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Calm weather is expected to continue today through Sunday. Highs
will be in the upper 80s and low 90s. Lows are expected to be in
the low 60s. Areas of patchy fog are possible each morning through
Sunday, especially in low lying areas and near bodies of water.
The next chance for precipitation is next Monday with highs
potentially dropping into the 70s early next week alongside a
frontal passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The forecast for this period has not changed much from what has
been advertised the past few days. An upper level trough continues
to spin away over the upper Midwest today with a much weaker
trough now moving to the east over the Atlantic coastline. Between
these two features is a surface high that will persist through
Sunday. By this point a new upper trough will exit the Rockies and
travel east across the CONUS and will determine our weather after
Sunday.

As a consequence of being locked underneath this high pressure
through the end this upcoming weekend, no significant changes to
the present forecast are anticipated. Expect highs to be in
80s/90s with lows in the low 60s with some areas of patchy fog
each morning. No precipitation is forecast until Monday.

The next system, and chances for precipitation, are still being
deciphered by medium and long range guidance. Ensemble spread
increases with respect to the forward speed and strength of upper
lo as it propagates east across the CONUS. Precipitation and
temperature drops are entirely possible with any surface fronts
associated with this system. However, the aforementioned
increase in spread lowers confidence in the exact magnitude of
any impacts. Current QPF sits in the .05" - .15" range and could
change in the coming days. Regardless, expect a temperature drop
and a chance for showers early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

High pressure over the region will result in VFR conditions at
all TAF sites with light south to southwest winds. Patchy fog is
possible.


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JDS