011
FXUS64 KMEG 281119
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
619 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

- Showers, and a few thunderstorms, will spread into the Mid-
  South starting later tonight. The heaviest rainfall is expected
  to stay south and west of Memphis, with areas over southeast
  Arkansas, and northwest Mississippi potentially receiving up to
  2 inches by Friday afternoon.

- Mostly dry and benign weather is expected for the upcoming
  holiday weekend, with temperatures returning to near-normal
  values in the mid-80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Clouds are streaming into the Mid-South ahead of the next system
approaching from the west. An upper level disturbance moving into
the Southern Plains will interact with a surface front over the
Red River Valley to produce overrunning precip that will spread
into the Mid-South late tonight and continue into Friday morning
before exiting. The heavier rainfall amounts will cover parts of
the the Delta south and west Memphis where there is a good chance
of 2+ inches. PWs around 2 inches combined with some elevated
instability could produce some locally heavy rain rates. However,
dry antecedent conditions will help keep any flooding concerns in
check. Expect a sharp gradient in precip amounts as you head
northeast across the Mid-South with places north and east of
Jackson not seeing much of anything. Amounts across Memphis will
range from one quarter to three quarters of an inch. Also of
note, clouds and rain will keep temps quite cool across the
southwest half of the Mid-South on Thursday which may result in a
few low maximum temperature records.

After this system exits, a broad upper trough will continue over
the eastern CONUS with weak northwest flow aloft across the Mid-
South. Surface high pressure will be centered across the Great
Lakes. This will result in a mostly dry and mild weekend with
highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. Humidity levels will be
comfortable with dewpoints in the 60s thanks to light northeast
winds. Cannot rule out a few showers across north MS where a weak
inverted surface trough will be present.

Next week, the broad upper trough will remain over the CONUS.
Weak upper level disturbances could trigger a few afternoon
showers or storms, though QPF amounts will be light. High temps
will be in the 80s with lows in the 60s along with comfortable
humidity levels. Looking ahead, a significant upper trough will
drop into the Upper MS Valley midweek driving a cold front south.
This will deliver more chilly air to the region for the end of
next week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A band of showers has set up, southwest of the MEM terminal.
Generally, this band will continue to train over this area for at
least the next 18 to 24 hours. Visibility reductions are not
expected until the rain saturates the low-level dry air. As long
as this band continues on this axis of heavy rainfall, minimal
impacts to the terminals are expected. Overrunning precipitation
will heighten MVFR ceiling probabilities, but current guidance
does not hit as hard on these ceilings as previous model runs.

Skies do look to clear out on the northern periphery of the
airspace as the axis sinks even further south, resulting in a
nice radiational fog setup at MKL between 09-12z.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Higher humidities and wetting rains will spread across much of
the area Thursday into Friday. Mostly dry weather will return this
weekend and continue into early next week as broad high pressure
remains over the area.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...DNM