016
FXUS64 KMEG 011703
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1203 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

The latest surface analysis places a cold front from the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan south through Chicago and back into St.
Louis. This cold front will continue to push southeast and through
the Mid-South this afternoon. With limited moisture in place,
only a slight chance of showers was carried for this afternoon.

Behind the front, much drier air will filter into the region
tonight. The current forecast is on track with no big changes
needed at this time. Expect highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
this afternoon along with northwest winds.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

A cold front will bring a swath of showers this afternoon with a
dry airmass behind it. Benign weather with near normal
temperatures is expected through the weekend. Another cold front
will cool temperatures even further early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

A weak cold front is gradually approaching from the Ozarks,
resulting in low dewpoint depressions and light winds areawide.
This combination has already supported several areas of dense fog,
mostly across West Tennessee. Expect this to continue developing
through the early morning hours. As such, A Dense Fog Advisory is
in effect through 9AM today for visibilities reduced to one
quarter mile or less.

The aforementioned cold front will make gradual southeastward
progress this afternoon, which will promote an axis of light pre-
frontal showers. Most CAMs keep the bulk of the precip east of
the Mississippi River with sparse spatial coverage warranting only
about a 15-20% PoP this afternoon. Low moisture content combined
with a broad area of convective inhibition should preclude any
thunder. Behind the front, a refreshingly dry airmass will bring
dewpoints down into the low 50s and perhaps even upper 40s in
northeast Arkansas overnight into tomorrow morning.

As midlevel ridging and dry air at the surface dominate, benign
weather with near-normal temperatures are expected through the
end of the week. Long range ensembles denote another weak longwave
trough moving through the region early Monday morning, but pre-
frontal moisture content once again looks quite limited and should
preclude any widespread rain. The beginning of next week looks
cool and dry with highs below normal in the 70s.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

VFR expected through the entire TAF period. High-based CU is
expected to develop this afternoon across much of the region. Some
showers are possible with eastern extent, so added VCSH to MKL.
VFR should continue to prevail tonight and into tomorrow morning
with light northerly winds and clear skies.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...JAB