411
FXUS64 KMEG 180435
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1135 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1135 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for areas near and west of
  the Mississippi River through 10 PM Monday. An Extreme Heat
  Watch is also in effect for these areas Tuesday.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the eastern half of the Mid-
  South through Tuesday evening as heat index values rise above
  105 degrees.

- Temperatures will trend cooler through the end of the week. By
  Friday, highs will be in the upper 80s and mid 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

The current heat wave will continue today as an upper ridge
retains its presence over the Mid-South. Heat indices may not
even drop below 80 F during the overnight hours this morning
before rising into the upper 100s and 110s today, dangerous heat
even for our climate. To add insult to injury, PoPs are very low
(at most 10%) across the entire area. Forecast RAP profiles do
show 1000 - 2000 MLCAPE across the region that could produce brief
afternoon showers, but the isolated nature of any precipitation
is expected to keep relief from the heat to a minimum over the
next few days.

Ridging will continue through the middle of the week with little
change to its amplitude through Wednesday. Therefore, it is
expected that the current heat wave will continue through then.
Daily max heat index values will be anywhere from 105 - 110+ F
with heat headlines likely through this time frame. Ridging will
begin to deamplify as jet stream energy is forced south in
response to Hurricane Erin`s recurvature east of the Atlantic
Coastline. Temperatures will then drop into the upper 80s to mid
90s throughout the region Thursday onward through the period
behind a weak cold front associated with the newly-arrived upper
energy. Some showers could accompany this boundary Wednesday and
Thursday with medium (30% - 50%) PoPs. As is typical of summer
convection, little to no shear and saturated profiles will promote
locally heavy rains and strong downburst winds with any stronger
cells. PoPs lower (< 30%) and shift south Friday through the end
of the period with cooler conditions continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Strong upper level high pressure will result in mainly light
winds and rain-free conditions. There is a 40% chance of fog at
both TUP and MKL overnight as winds go calm.

AC3

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

No fire weather concerns expected through the midweek. Hot and
humid conditions will prevail with light winds.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Monday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Monday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Monday for MSZ001-007-008-
     010>012-020.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ002>006-009-013>017-
     021>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Monday for TNZ001-002-019-
     048-049-088.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ003-004-020>022-
     050>055-089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AC3