969
FXUS64 KMEG 181926
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
226 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 226 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

-Significant river flooding will continue across portions of the Mid-
South into next week.

-Showers and thunderstorms are likely by Sunday afternoon into
Monday. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds as
the primary concern.

-Unsettled weather conditions will continue through late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Dry and windy conditions can be found across the Mid-South at this
hour. Saturday will widely be a rinse and repeat of today, but not
as windy. The pressure gradient will ease some as a low pressure
system begins its traverse towards the Midwest. A few sprinkles
could reach the surface in extreme northeast Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel, but after a dominant and elongated period of
high pressure, accumulations larger than wetting rain are slim.

The highlight of this forecast period begins on Sunday as the
aforementioned low pressure system will stretch a cold front across
the region. This front will return the chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Thankfully, it seems the best forcing will be to our
north and west, but a few marginally severe storms cannot be ruled
out as it taps into near 7C/km lapse rates and ~500 J/kg of CAPE
along and west of the Mississippi River. The question at this point
for this system is timing. This boundary is projected to stall west
of the Mid-South and thankfully keep the axis of heavy rainfall away
from areas still dealing with significant flooding impacts. The GFS
is quite robust and has the system clearing the area by Monday night
before stalling once again. The European model continues to trend
even slower, and not clearing the area until at least Tuesday
afternoon. If the boundary continues to slow, this could open a
severe weather window on Monday for north Mississippi. Confidence
for severe weather through the weekend into Monday is low at this
time, but definitely worth keeping an eye on.

The cold front is projected to make a secondary stall across
central/southern Mississippi keeping lingering showers in the
forecast for areas closest to the boundary. Elsewhere, will be cool
and dry to start the work week. QPF values have gone up slightly
across north Mississippi to account for the stalled boundary.

Wet and unsettled conditions will resume areawide Wednesday morning
as a warm front surges north. Shower activity is expected along this
boundary and a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. This is
slow moving boundary will keep at least 30% chances of activity
through the remainder of the work week with temperatures remaining
in the upper 70s to low 80s. Rainfall amounts for the next 7 days
are forecast to remain below 2 inches.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

VFR conditions are expected to persist into early Saturday
morning. However, latest probabilistic guidance indicates a good
potential for MVFR ceilings to develop towards sunrise Saturday
at all sites and persist through the morning. 2 kft winds around
50 kts will result in LLWS at all sites except TUP tonight. Gusty
south winds will persist through the period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Blowing Dust Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048.

MO...Blowing Dust Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CJC