970
FXUS64 KMEG 300431
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1131 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Skies were partly cloudy to mostly cloudy across the Midsouth at
9 PM, with winds generally calm. Greatest cloud cover was evident
along and west of the MS River. KNQA radar sensed isolated light
returns in this region, consistent with showers. Patchy drizzle
was reported via mPING over north MS, outside of the stronger
radar returns.

Latest runs of the HRRR continue to indicate dense fog developing
east of the MS River after midnight. Dewpoint depressions in this
region were running a 0-2 degrees F at 9 PM. With calm winds, fog
development will be likely where skies partially clear overnight.
Current forecast remains on track.

PWB

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Cloudy, drizzly, and cool conditions will continue on Monday as
an upper level low pressure system slowly pulls away. Dry and
seasonably warm conditions will return Tuesday and persist through
next weekend as high pressure remains over the region. High
temperatures will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows
in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Scattered light rain showers continue this afternoon as a
stubborn and expansive upper level low pressure system remains
over the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valleys. This system will
slowly fill and break apart over the next 24 hours or so. As it
does, cloud cover will thin and fog will develop overnight across
much of the region. Light winds and a saturated boundary layer
will result in some dense fog development along and east of the
Mississippi River. HREF probabilities are quite high ranging from
40 to 80 percent for visibilities of less than one quarter of a
mile across west Tennessee and north Mississippi. Went with
widespread fog for now, but there is increasing confidence that
that fog could become dense.

Cool, cloudy, and drizzly conditions will continue on Monday as
the system slowly pushes south and east of the region.
Temperatures will be a tad warmer with highs in the upper 70s and
lower 80s. Fog is possible again Tuesday morning as winds go calm
and skies clear.

A weak and dry cold front will move through the Mid-South Tuesday.
A few light showers are possible, mainly south of I-40. Thereafter,
dry and seasonable temperatures will persist through next weekend.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows in the 50s
and 60s. Dry and warm conditions look to persist through the long
term forecast as the polar jet remains displaced to the north and
east of the region.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Fog and low stratus resulting in LIFR conditions continue to be
the main aviation concerns at MEM, MKL and TUP overnight. Gradual
improvement of these conditions are still forecast by mid to late
morning at all sites, with VFR prevailing by the afternoon hours.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...JPR