362
FXUS64 KMEG 101109
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
609 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

A ridge of high pressure will continue to bring dry and warm
temperatures to the Mid-South into the upcoming weekend. Afternoon
temperatures will gradually rise into the 80s with a few locations
approaching 90 degrees by late weekend. A dry cold front will
bring an end to the warm temperatures Sunday night with much
cooler fall temperatures expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

An upper-level ridge over the Rockies, and an upper-level trough
along the East Coast is producing northwest flow across the Lower
Mississippi Valley this morning. Meanwhile, a 1020 mb surface high
is centered over portions of the Tennessee and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valleys. This is resulting in continued dry weather
across the Mid-South with 3 AM temperatures ranging from the
upper 40s over northwest Tennessee, and 50s elsewhere.

A dry persistence forecast will continue across the Mid-South as
as an upper-level ridge over the Plains will build into portions
of the Lower Mississippi Valley into the upcoming weekend. Afternoon
temperatures will gradually rise into the 80s to perhaps
approaching 90 degrees by Sunday.

Long-term operational and ensemble model trends continue to
indicate another shortwave trough diving into the Great Lakes
Region this weekend into early next week. An associated moisture-
starved cold front is expected to move through the Mid-South
Sunday night, bringing an end to the recent above normal
temperatures. This front will bring much cooler and below normal
temperatures to the Mid-South next week. Highs by early next week
will be in the 60s with a potential for lows to drop back into the
upper 30s Tuesday night across portions of West Tennessee towards
the Tennessee River.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

VFR conditions continue. Generally NE winds around 5 to 10 kts
through the daytime, becoming light somewhat variable overnight.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CMA