Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
563 FXUS64 KMEG 111721 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1221 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 - A typical summertime pattern will remain over the next 7 days or so. Daily high temperatures will be generally in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the triple digits each day. - Rain chances will begin to increase Tuesday through Thursday, generally between 30 to 70 percent. Shower and thunderstorm chances will peak in the afternoon hours each day. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Another typical summertime day is on display this Monday with current temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s with a very thin stratus deck moving over the Mid-South. An upper-level ridge, currently centered over the east coast, will continue to break down as we move through Monday. By Tuesday morning, a weak upper-level trough will begin pushing into the Middle Mississippi valley, and winds turn more southerly, ushering in increased moisture. As such, more mentionable shower and thunderstorm chances will move back into the forecast Tuesday and into Wednesday. Thursday will be much the same as weak northwest flow mo with increased dewpoints brought in by Tuesday into Thursday`sves over the region and several embedded shortwaves give lift to showers and thunderstorms. Come Friday, an upper-level ridge will broaden over the Gulf coast states, decreasing our rain chances and increasing temperatures into the mid to upper 90s. Something to note, there is a decent amount of model spread for Friday and into the weekend. As such, the strength of the ridge over that broadens over the Gulf states will really drive our weather pattern. Ensemble guidance and NBM are in a more agreement with the drier solution into the weekend. Nonetheless, this weekend will be hot and humid due to the increased moisture profile. As a result, heat indices may warrant heat headlines in the latter part of the week. Bottom line, we`re stuck in this summertime pattern with slightly above normal temperatures. AEH && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 VFR conditions will persist over the next 30 hours. A 10% chance of a SHRA or TSRA will be the rule this afternoon with a slight increase to around 20% tomorrow afternoon. Coverage still remains too low to mention in TAF at this time. Winds will generally be light and variable through much of the period. AC3 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Fire weather danger will remain at a minimum as minimum relative humidity values remain above 50% for the foreseeable future. 20 ft winds will also remain sub 10 kts over the next several days. Our next shot at wetting rainfall returns Tuesday but will likely remain scattered. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...AC3