455
FXUS64 KMEG 222057
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
257 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 256 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Another night of cold temperatures are expected across the Mid-
South tonight with lows in the teens to lower 20s. Temperatures
are expected to moderate over the next 7 days with the potential
for precipitation mainly in the form of rain Sunday and again
towards the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

GOES-16 water vapor satellite trends show a broad upper-level
trough axis encompassing much of the continental United States
this afternoon. Meanwhile, latest surface analysis shows high
pressure extending from the Ohio Valley back through portions of the
Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast United States. Southerly
winds on the backside of high pressure have allowed temperatures
to recover back to or slightly above freezing this afternoon.

Another night of very cold temperatures is expected across the
Mid-South tonight with temperatures dropping back into the teens
to lower 20s. A combination of low-level warm air advection slowly
returning and the anomalously cold airmass retreating away from
the region is anticipated to keep temperatures and wind chill
values below the threshold for a Cold Weather Advisory.

Short-term model trends indicate a weak shortwave trough and
associated weak cold front will drop from the Middle Mississippi
Valley into the region Thursday night into Friday morning. No
precipitation is expected at this time as model soundings still
reflect an absence of any appreciable moisture.

The persistent upper-level trough over the East Coast will weaken
with upper-level flow becoming nearly zonal this weekend.
Temperatures are expected to moderate into the 40s to lower 50s
by Saturday. Low-level moisture is expected to increase
sufficiently to produce some precipitation across the Mid-South
late Saturday night into Sunday. There is a small potential for
some light wintry precipitation over portions of northwest
Tennessee near the Tennessee River initially. However, confidence
in coverage and occurrence remains very low at this time.

Long-term ensemble trends indicate a cutoff upper-level low will
develop over the Southwest U.S. then gradually move into the Lower
Mississippi Valley by the middle of next week. Forecast rainfall
amounts will average between one-half to inch. Some uncertainty
still exists with the placement of next week`s system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the next 30 hours, as high
pressure slowly lifts to the east. A few gusts will be possible
this afternoon due to strong return flow. The most likely terminal
for prevailing gusts is JBR with intermittent gusting possible
elsewhere. A reinforcing cold front will arrive after 12Z
Thursday, resulting in a wind shift back to the NW.

DNM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...DNM