529
FXUS64 KMEG 092020
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
320 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 320 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

- Showers will continue this evening, with the highest chances
  (60-70%) across north Mississippi. Total rainfall amounts will
  remain at or less than half an inch through tonight.

- Dry weather will return to start the work week, with high
  temperatures reaching the 60s Monday and 70s on Tuesday through
  the end of the week.

- Unsettled weather pattern for the second half of the week, with
  multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Isolated rain showers continue today across the southern half of
the CWA as an upper low moves through the region. Air has remained
drier than most guidance today, with even 5th percentile NBM
producing dewpoints above today`s observations. Therefore, rain
showers should still remain on the lighter side with minimal
accumulations outside of sporadic frontogenetic bands. Satellite
does indicate some glaciation and convective structures over the
region, but forecast soundings deprive any layers of instability.
So, confidence in any lightning is low through tonight before
showers exit the region tomorrow morning.

High pressure returns through the beginning of the week behind
today`s upper low. Temperatures will then begin to climb within
clear weather Monday and Tuesday with highs reaching into the 60s
and 70s respectively that will continue through the rest of the
week. By Wednesday, a new trough will be approaching the region
from the west with an attendant surface low. Southerly moisture
advection and significant cooling aloft owes to the possibility
of some thunderstorms Thursday night as the trough passes.
However, the fast eastward motion of trough the is expected to
limit the magnitude of any surface airmass modification and adds
forecast uncertainty to coverage and severity of any convection.
Nonetheless, most medium/long range guidance does show a broad
swath of QPF across the Midsouth overnight Wednesday into Thursday
within an area of ~500 MUCAPE that would support locally heavy
rainfall within any thunderstorms.

Trough number 2 leaves just as fast as it arrives throughout the
day Thursday with a relatively nebulous front washing out over the
region, leaving behind a somewhat untouched moist airmass. A
third, much larger and more amplified trough will then be
approaching into Friday which will kick off rapid southerly WAA
off the Gulf. Rapid poleward moisture transport is expected in
this regime as a deep sub-980 mb low deepens over the central
Plains Friday. The arrival of a powerful upper jet streak above this
moisture has prompted growing concerns for increased severe
weather potential Friday and Saturday. As such, the SPC has placed
the entire region in a slight (2/5) risk for severe storms on
Friday and the southeastern portions in a slight risk (2/5) for
Saturday. Given the high amplitude and large mass response
expected for this system, all hazards are expected with
thunderstorms both Friday and Saturday. However, forecast
uncertainties in the evolution of crucial upper and surface
features is still adding forecast uncertainty. Therefore, changes
are likely in the timing and location of any severe threat in the
coming days.

The end of the forecast will see post cold-frontal conditions with
cooler weather and possibly some lingering showers on Sunday.
Weather will therefore likely be drier and cooler moving into
next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Showers should increase in coverage this afternoon, mainly
confined to north MS and impacting TUP. Included Prob30 for
showers near MEM this afternoon into the evening hours and at TUP
through the night. All sites should see clear skies tomorrow.
Northeast winds this afternoon 6-12kt becoming northerly tonight
less than 5kt.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...JDS