852
FXUS64 KMEG 071003
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
403 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 254 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

A showery and warm pattern will continue across the Midsouth for
at least the next seven days. Models indicate that we may finally
see a hint of Fall by next Thursday. Hurricane Rafael is moving
west across the the Gulf of Mexico and does not look like it will
have any impact on the Midsouth.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

A stalled front stretches from near Savannah, Tennessee to near
Jackson, Mississippi. North of the front, showers and
thunderstorms have been pulsing along a line from southeast
Arkansas into west Kentucky. Latest radar and satellite trends
show a slight increase in both intensity and coverage of
precipitation. The only real threat from these storms should be
locally heavy rainfall. Patchy fog has developed across much of
the Midsouth early this morning, but north winds 4-8 mph should
help limit the development of any widespread dense fog.

Southwest flow will prevail across the middle and lower
Mississippi River valley through the weekend, shifting more zonal
early next week. As a result, several rounds of rainfall are
anticipated through Sunday with a brief lull in activity early
next week. Temperatures will remain warm for early November over
the next several days as a ridge strengthens across the
Southeastern US and shifts east through the weekend. High
temperatures should be in the mid 60s to mid 70s with lows in the
middle 50s to middle 60s. Model guidance indicates that we may see
a bit of a cooldown after midweek.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

A cold front extended from the Arklamiss region to UOX to near
PVE, at 05Z, slight eastward movement from 00Z. MEM has remained
under a narrow corridor of LIFR CIGS behind this front through the
evening.

As the front moves slowly east overnight, MEM CIGS should improve
slightly, though an improvement to IFR may be delayed until after
sunrise. Thereafter, stronger NE winds will push the front a
little to the south - not too far however, as winds will be partially
parallel to the front. After a minor improvement in CIGS Thursday
afternoon, IFR appears a good bet for Thursday evening at all but
JBR.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...PWB