130
FXUS64 KMEG 090735
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
235 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 235 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

- Significant river flooding will continue through the end of the
  week.

-Rain chances return Thursday. A Slight Risk for severe storms is
 in place for the entire Mid-South. Large hail and damaging winds
 are the primary concerns.

-Dry and seasonable conditions return this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

A beautiful spring day is on tap for the Mid-South today,
characterized by dry conditions and highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

Severe weather chances increase on Thursday as a long wave trough
orients over the Midwest, ejecting a cold front towards the Mid-
South. Ahead of this boundary, a 75 kt midlevel jet will orient
northwest over the Tennessee Valley. The Mid-South will sit
underneath the left entrance region of this feature, providing
increased ascent through the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop near the KY/TN border at this time. Initially, storm
mode is favored to be supercellular with large hail the primary
concern. It is important to note: the environment Thursday
afternoon does not favor tornado development (chances of a tornado
are around 2%). If a tornado does form, it would be rather short-
lived and weak. As storms move south through the evening hours,
storm mode will morph into broken line segments. This will pose a
greater damaging wind risk through sunset. A Slight Risk for
severe storms is in place for Thursday to account for the damaging
wind and hail risk. Additional flooding concerns on Thursday are
not anticipated as storm total rainfall remains less than half an
inch.

A few showers and thunderstorms may linger into Friday, but dry
conditions will quickly return as upper level ridging persists
through the weekend. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will
be in the 60s and 70s, respectively. Additional rain chances
return early Tuesday morning as a shortwave navigates across
northern CONUS.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Light winds and VFR to continue through the overnight. Southerly
return flow develops on Wednesday, around the western side of a
retreating surface high pressure. A few gusts will be possible in
the afternoon.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ002>006-009-
     013>017-022>024.

TN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TNZ003-004-
     020>022-050>055-089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB